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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, September 11th, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 66-66-2, -15.34 units
- Sides: 32-34-1, -13.14 units
- Totals: 33-32-1, -3.90 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Phillies
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PHI -320
WSH: Anibal Sanchez | PHI: Aaron Nola
We were fortunate to finish yesterday with a clean 2-0 record. We backed the Phillies in the first five innings yesterday, but today we'll be looking at a first inning under. It seems strange as the Nats will send Anibal Sanchez (2-5, 4.56 ERA) to the mound. However, Sanchez has been perfect on the road in the first inning, not allowing a single run in four road starts. He's been near-perfect overall, allowing a run in just one of his nine starts overall.
Aaron Nola (9-11, 3.35 ERA) will take the ball for the home Phillies. Nola has had a great bounce-back season for the Phillies and has been just as good in the first inning. He's allowed a run in just two of 12 starts at Citizens' Bank Park, one of which I went to, unfortunately, and has only allowed a run in four of 27 starts overall.
The Nationals have had a tough go in the first inning so far this season, scoring in just under 29% of first innings on the road and just under 27% of first innings overall, but have scored a run in three of their last ten games. The Phillies have been a bit better, scoring in just under 33% of first innings at home, in just over 28% of first innings overall, and just two of their last 10.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at just -118, proving to be solid value as my model has the under at a 64.29% chance of hitting, good for true odds of -180.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Marlins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIA +126
NYM: Taijuan Walker | MIA: Jesus Luzardo
I'll head down south to Miami for our second first inning under of the afternoon as the Mets and Marlins close out their weekend set. The Mets will look to grab the series win this afternoon behind Taijuan Walker (10-4, 3.60 ERA) on the mound. Walker has allowed a first-inning tally in four of his 14 starts away from home this year, and in just six of 24 starts overall.
On the other hand, the Marlins will be sending southpaw Jesus Luzardo (3-6, 3.36 ERA) to the hill. While Luzardo missed some time this season due to injury, he's finally proving himself as a solid starter in the Majors. The once highly-touted prospect hasn't allowed a run in any of his four starts at home, and has allowed a run in just two of 12 starts overall.
The Mets have been very good this season at scoring first-inning runs, tallying a run in just over 34% of games overall. However, that number drops below 25% when they're on the road, and they've scored in just three of their last 10. Conversely, the Marlins have been one of the worst offenses in the first inning, scoring in just over 20% of home games and just over 16% of games overall, as well as three of their last 10.
My model gives the first inning under a 61.06% good for -157 odds. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the first inning under at -140, proving us some more solid value. Let's finish the weekend strong and finish 2-0 while we enjoy some NFL football.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-140) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you Tuesday!
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