RADIO
Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL Season! Each week, I'll be bringing you our famous NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with expert research and picks for cash games and GPPs. Here are a few notes about the sheet.
- For Week 1, I will be using data from 2021. It's all we have to go off and it's going to take a few weeks for us to get a somewhat reliable sample size from 2022.
- The "fantasy points allowed rank" reflects how a player's opponent ranked in fantasy points allowed to their specific position. The lower the number, the better the matchup.
- DVOA is a stat created by Football Outsiders that stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average and takes into account the quality of the previous offensive opponents. This rating is being shown for both the offensive player's team and their opponent.
- A play labeled "cash" is a higher-owned play that is recommended for cash games. A "strong" play is playable in all formats. "Slate-breakers" are some of my favorite GPP targets for upside or reduced ownership.
- Vegas and risk columns will all be updated during the week to reflect injury info, weather info, and the most recent Vegas info.
Premium NFL DFS Cheat Sheet - Week 1
Cash Game Cores
DraftKings: McCaffrey-Pittman-Kelce
The PPR upside of McCaffrey is too good to pass up on DraftKings. And Pittman projects as the best point-per-dollar WR1, so I am okay with using him instead of Jonathan Taylor for Indy exposure. Pivoting off Rondale Moore here to Travis Kelce, who at 6600 is far too cheap on DK and gives us a tremendous floor. Think about it, if he were a WR, he'd be 7.5k or more right?
FanDuel: Hurts-Mixon-Brown
I love Hurts in all formats, and if you can get up to him on DK in cash then go for it. His rushing TD upside is something I want on FanDuel and his 8k salary is pretty affordable when compared with the rest of the elite QBs. I'm leaning towards Derrick Henry and Mixon as my FD backs and if I have A.J Brown as my top-rated receiver in the mid-tier of pricing. A natural stack with Hurts is okay with me, too, even in cash.
Deeper GPP Flyers
This is where I want to give you some other players who will be in my player pool, who didn't make the cut for the cheat sheet. The main recommended plays are always going to be geared more towards cash games and single-entry tournaments, but here are some lower-owned options for large-field tournaments.
QB: Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Trey Lance
It's all the running QBs! I do want some exposure to Kyler in the highest total on the board and Jackson in a great match-up. I'm still very iffy on Lance and I don't know that I will go there, but I will point out that he has a pretty high ceiling projection at low ownership.
RB: Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones/A.J. Dillon, Chase Edmonds, Antonio Gibson, Mike Davis (if Dobbins is out)
Ekeler stands out here as the main high-end back that I excluded from the sheet, mainly because he has fewer guaranteed touches and had a ton of luck getting in the end zone last year (he had some big games against the Raiders, too).
The Packers duo is going to eat into each others' production, but it's a good match-up against Minnesota. I love Edmonds this year and he's too cheap this week. Gibson, I don't love, but the injury to Robinson is going to force him into more touches and this Jags defense stinks. Mike Davis is going to end up as the top value play if Dobbins is out, but I simply don't trust him for cash games with Lamar stealing rushing TDs and other Baltimore backs mixing in.
WR: Elijah Moore, D.J. Moore, DeVonta Smith, Wan'Dale Robinson
Eli Moore might be the sneakiest guy in this group and had some great production with Flacco last year. D.J. Moore should continue to be a WR1 in Carolina if Baker can get him the ball. Smith is another Eagle I will have shares of and Robinson is dirt cheap and super talented (and lower-owned than the chalky Kadarious Toney).
TE: Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, Irv Smith Jr.
If Waller and Ertz are healthy, I will have some exposure to them in these spots. Irv Smith is a sneaky play on a good offense that will get overlooked. I'm not messing with Cole Kmet, though I know he will probably be a popular punt.
DEF: Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, Miami
Don't pay up for defenses! Washington is probably going into my cash game builds, with Chicago being my favorite tournament play against Trey Lance at home. Pittsburgh is cheap and has some sack upside against Burrow, while Miami is facing a NE offense that could struggle.
Week 1 DFS Slate Notes
***Injury Updates***
Rondale Moore is now in jeopardy of missing Sunday's game for Arizona, we need his status and that of Zach Ertz to figure out which Cardinals we want against the Chiefs in that game.
J.K. Dobbins' status is still unknown, but the whole Baltimore backfield situation could be a mess even if he misses and I'm not convinced that Mike Davis becomes some kind of auto-play even in a good matchup.
George Kittle still hasn't practiced, but I am not sure what this really means for San Fran. Perhaps you give Aiyuk and Deebo a small bump, but I am not really digging the Niners' passing game here anyway.
Allen Lazard still has a chance to play but is a guy to keep an eye on. If he misses, then we could entertain the idea of Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, or Randall Cobb - but good luck figuring out which guy benefits. More than anything it probably just bumps up both Dillon and Jones as pass-catchers.
***Saturday Updates***
Rondale Moore is officially out and Lazard is officially doubtful, meaning we have to (although I didn't want to have to) entertain the remaining Arizona and Green Bay receivers. Hollywood Brown is now on the sheet, but mainly for cash games if you just want to match his high ownership.
If you didn't see up above, I am pivoting to Travis Kelce in the DK cash core, and I think I may even go double-TE in my main DK build with Kelce and my fave TE play - Dallas Goedert.
I think the Arizona-KC game could be a letdown from a stacking perspective, in GPPs I would rather go with a Derek Carr-Davante Adams stack and bring it back with Austin Ekeler. That trio will all be relatively low-owned (Adams the highest ownership of the bunch), especially played together.
I am going to stack up the Eagles a bunch of different ways with Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift as my main bring-backs from Detroit.
Saquon Barkley's ownership is still climbing, I might be bailing on him in tournaments as I think Tennesee could just pound them. I'm not all that into Kadarius Toney at his projected ownership either.
If you are playing some Ravens (and you probably should) then you should absolutely be bringing it back with Elijah Moore, who I think is a very solid play this week with Flacco under center.
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Week 1
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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