Is Trey Lance a Good Fantasy Pick? Where Should I Draft Him?

After being selected third overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, Trey Lance saw limited playing time during his rookie season.

The dual-threat appeared in six games, starting just two games and playing one in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo. He flashed some of his potential as he completed 41-of-71 passes for 603 yards and five touchdowns while adding 168 yards and another score on the ground.

Heading into his sophomore year, Lance will be the starting quarterback in an offense that has one of the best pass-catching groups in the league with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. With his rushing ability and cannon of an arm, we could see Lance be the next quarterback to take that Year 2 leap a la Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts

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Is Trey Lance a Good Fantasy Football Pick?

Rushing stats from a quarterback are extremely valuable for fantasy lineups, as they will heighten both the floor and ceiling of a dual-threat quarterback. Most leagues offer one point for every 25 passing yards and one point for every 10 rushing yards. In Lance’s three games with significant playing time, he averaged 53.6 rushing yards. Basically, Lance had five fantasy points in the bank before even attempting a pass.

His rushing stats coupled with two pass-catchers in Samuel and Kittle that have great yards after the catch ability is a recipe for fantasy success.

We saw Hurts be the overall QB1 through 11 weeks of the season before suffering an ankle injury. Sure, he wasn’t amazing as a passer, but that doesn't matter in fantasy football land when you can run for 700+ yards as a quarterback. Lance hasn't proved himself as a passer just yet, however, neither did Jackson and Hurts before their monster fantasy seasons.

Trey Lance 💣💣

(🎥 @Eric_Branch)
pic.twitter.com/aBQoOix76z

— PFF (@PFF) August 17, 2022

Where Should Trey Lance Be Drafted?

Lance has an ADP of QB13 and 96th overall, which is a great value for the sophomore. For those that like to wait on drafting a quarterback, Lance is a great target because of his astronomical ceiling.

Despite him going as the 13th QB of the board, fantasy managers can feel comfortable with Lance as their QB1 in 10/12-team formats.

Because he goes in the 7th/8th round, any redraft squad with Trey Lance typically looks REALLY good

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 22, 2022

Some quarterbacks going ahead of him include Matt Stafford, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott, all of which figure to have lower upside than Lance. It has become a trend to find a late-round league winner at the QB position since 2018, and it looks like Lance could continue that trend this season, following in the footsteps of Mahomes, Jackson, and Hurts.

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