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Trade candidates to buy or sell in fantasy baseball after Week 20 of the 2022 MLB season. Ben Rosener lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.
Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Jorge Lopez, Minnesota Twins
Earlier this season, the Twins bullpen featured plenty of different relievers getting save chances and converting them. Emilio Pagan has nine saves this season, and Jhoan Duran has six. Tyler Duffey chipped in with a pair and Caleb Thielbar, Griffin Jax and Jovani Moran have combined for three saves.
Then the trade deadline happened, and despite adding two more very good late-inning, high-leverage relievers to the mix in Michael Fulmer and Jorge Lopez, the Twins bullpen has become one with a set closer. And it’s Lopez.
The former Orioles closer has already logged five high-leverage appearances for the Twins so far. All five of those high-leverage appearances came in the ninth inning.
In fact, no other Minnesota relief pitcher has registered a high-leverage, ninth-inning outing since the Lopez trade. Elsewhere, the 29-year-old has all three of the Twins’ saves since the August 2 trade deadline.
He’s struck out six batters and allowed eight hits, four walks, and three earned runs in his first eight innings in a Minnesota uniform.
The ERA and walks might be slightly elevated in a smaller sample size, but Lopez has league-winning potential down the stretch for fantasy managers as he looks set to continue racking up saves for a team in the mix for both a Wild Card spot and the American League Central division title.
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres
Entering play Wednesday, there was much to like about Snell’s fantasy prospects for the rest of the season. He was sporting a FIP (2.77) nearly a run lower than his actual ERA (3.76).
There were also 112 strikeouts – compared to 38 walks – in 83.2 innings of work. And oh yeah, only Shane McLanahan, Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani, Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes, and Max Scherzer had a higher swinging strike rate than Snell’s 14.6% metric among starters with at least 80 innings pitched.
Then Wednesday happened and the left-hander gave up eight hits, six earned runs, and three home runs in 3.1 innings against the Cleveland Guardians. The outing raised his ERA on the season to 4.24. Not ideal for the Padres and anyone who started Snell on their fantasy team on Wednesday.
But the outing does provide a bit of an opportunity in the sense that it might make it easier to acquire Snell if your league’s trade deadline has yet to pass. I
f you do have the former Rays ace on your fantasy roster, better days are certainly ahead. This is still a pitcher who entered Wednesday with all three of his non-fastball pitches sporting a whiff rate of 40% or better.
This is also still the pitcher who, despite a few shaky outings earlier in the season, has given up three runs or fewer while throwing at least five innings in 11 of his 17 starts. He’s also given up one run or fewer in seven of his last 10 outings.
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
Entering play on Wednesday, the New York Mets had scored the fifth-most runs in Major League Baseball. Also entering play on Wednesday, outfielder Brandon Nimmo – who is entrenched as the club’s leadoff hitter – is sporting a .264 average and a .352 on-base percentage through 519 plate appearances.
With that in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising that Nimmo has enjoyed a strong season from a runs-scored standpoint, but he’s been elite in that particular regard for the Mets so far.
The 29-year-old is one of just 23 position players in the league with at least 70 runs scored so far this season. To be specific, he has 74 runs scored, the same amount as Alex Bregman and an amount that is bettered by just 13 hitters.
All that in itself makes Nimmo a decidedly above-average fantasy option, but the outfielder has also added 11 home runs this season, the most he’s hit in a single campaign since 2018 when he connected on 17 homers. Thanks in part to a 7.3% barrel rate that is just short of Nimmo’s career high, the veteran has provided both the Mets and fantasy managers with some over-the-fence power in addition to his ability to get on base at a high rate.
Moving forward he could be especially crucial for those same fantasy managers down the stretch and for the fantasy playoffs.
The Mets finish the regular season with nine of their last 14 outings on the road, which is significant considering Nimmo has been decidedly more productive away from Citi Field this season, with a .306 average, an even .400 on-base percentage, and 10 of his 11 home runs away from home.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros
The good news with Pena is that he’s largely excelled as Carlos Correa’s replacement in Houston – both in real-life baseball and fantasy baseball terms.
The 24-year-old has been one of the league’s most productive rookies, hitting .249 with a .290 on-base percentage, 16 home runs, and seven stolen bases in 412 plate appearances. That’s all good. So too is the infielder’s 9.2% barrel rate.
The not-so-good news is that Pena’s production at the plate has cooled considerably after a hot start.
Jeremy Pena through July 6: 254 PA, 12 HR, 6 SB, .270 average, .320 OBP, .343 wOBA, 10.3% barrel rate, 37.4% hard-hit rate
Jeremy Pena from July 6 onwards: 163 PA, 4 HR, 1 SB, .208 average, .233 OBP, .242 wOBA, 7.1% barrel rate, 33.0% hard-hit rate
There’s an obvious discrepancy in terms of plate appearances there, but it’s hard to ignore the dip in quality contact, especially considering Pena doesn’t draw many walks, which help in terms of stolen base and run-scoring opportunities in a high-powered Houston offense. As of the beginning of play on Wednesday, the shortstop’s 4.6% walk rate was in just the ninth percentile league-wide.
Pena’s stream of consistent plate appearances in Houston – his glove at shortstop will likely continue to keep him on the field, even if he continues to struggle – and ability to connect on a home run and steal a base at times will keep him fantasy relevant down the stretch.
But he might not perform like the potential league-winner he was back in April, May, and June if he continues to struggle to make quality contact at the plate.
Johnny Cueto, Chicago White Sox
On one hand, Johnny Cueto is enjoying his best season in years, posting a 2.58 ERA in 118.2 innings, providing both the Chicago White Sox and fantasy managers alike with some quality innings.
He’s also limiting walks (he’s giving up just 1.90 free passes per nine frames) as he did earlier in his career when he was routinely a 4.0 or better fWAR pitcher.
The only problem is that he isn’t really striking out all that many batters. Cueto’s 5.54 strikeouts per nine innings are on track to be a new career low, while his 7.3% swinging strike percentage is the second-lowest mark of his career. This stat might best encompass or sum up Cueto’s effectiveness so far.
In his last two starts he threw eight innings against the Houston Astros on August 15, scattering six hits, two runs, one earned run, and a walk. He struck out only three batters. Then against the Cleveland Guardians on August 20, he allowed just five hits and a walk in 8.2 scoreless frames. Cueto registered just a pair of punchouts against Cleveland.
Overall, he’s also struck out three batters or less in six of his 17 outings and has struck out more than five batters on just two occasions this season. In part due to those low strikeout totals, Cueto is sporting a FIP (3.80) more than a run higher than his actual ERA, which is where the unsustainability begins.
The 36-year-old has done a solid job limiting barrels and hard contact so far, with opposing batters managing just a 6.1% barrel rate and a 36.0% hard-hit rate against him. Still, even if he continues to limit walks and quality contact, the FIP seems bound to catch up with the ERA eventually as long as the strikeouts remain low.
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