Five Fantasy Football Wide Receivers Who Are Being Overvalued

We continue our rapid acceleration toward Week 1 as involvement in drafts of all formats has now intensified. Many of you have maintained your interest in best-ball leagues, while we have also arrived at the heart of draft season for anyone who is building rosters in redraft leagues. Participation in these formats will also continue until the highly anticipated regular season matchups begin.

The team at RotoBaller is also generating a massive assortment of daily content which is designed to help you construct and reshape your rosters regardless of what format you are participating in. This includes non-stop news from training camps, along with our data-fueled analysis and updated rankings.

You can use these resources to develop your strategy before the beginning of each draft, while also acquiring the necessary information to adjust your plan effectively, based on the flow of each draft. That includes this article, which will focus on five wide receivers who are being overvalued at their current ADPs. These are not recommendations to avoid these receivers completely during your drafts, but it will be beneficial for you to bypass them at their current draft positions.

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Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins - ADP 36/WR15  

Jaylen Waddle's first NFL touchdown 👇@D1__JW | #FinsUp (Via: @NFL)pic.twitter.com/katbG4jUIj

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) September 12, 2021

Waddle validated Miami’s decision to select him in Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft, as he finished at WR13, established a new rookie record for receptions, and vaulted among the league leaders at his position in multiple categories.

Jaylen Waddle (104 receptions in 2021) joined Anquan Boldin (101 receptions in 2003) as the only rookies in NFL history to have 100+ receptions pic.twitter.com/XrQnexsJ4Y

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) May 31, 2022

Waddle attained a 24.6% target share and finished 10th among all wide receivers in targets from Weeks 1-18 (141/8.8 per game). He also finished seventh overall with 104 receptions (6.5 per game), while becoming just the second rookie receiver in NFL history to eclipse 100+.

Waddle also soared to fourth overall with 77 catches (seven per game) from Weeks 6-18 while surpassing 1,000 yards (1,015/63.4 per game) and finishing eighth in first down receptions (59) from Weeks 1-18.

His accomplishments would normally provide the recipe for a favorable outlook as he enters his second season. However, Miami is transitioning to a new offense under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel. The Dolphins have also restructured their receiving unit, which includes their acquisition of six-time Pro-Bowler Tyreek Hill. This has intensified Waddle’s competition for targets while presenting the rationale for avoiding him at his current ADP.

Waddle is still being drafted as a high-end WR2 (35/WR15), even though the infusion of Hill and the schematic modifications by McDaniel will significantly alter his environment. We have yet to witness third-year signal caller Tua Tagovailoa spearheading the Dolphins’ aerial attack with Waddle and Hill as his top two options, but there is a sizable risk in projecting both wideouts to finish among the top 20 in scoring.

Waddle will also fail to approach the 27% target share that he attained during his final 11 games in 2021 unless Hill becomes unavailable during the season.

The #Dolphins are signing Tyreek Hill to a three-year, $75 million extension as part of the trade from the #Chiefs, per source. So he's now under contract through the 2025 season at $23.8M per year overall.

By most metrics, the NFL's new highest-paid receiver.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 23, 2022

The Dolphins were willing to exchange five draft picks for the opportunity to inject Hill’s elite level of speed and explosiveness into their revamped offense, after he averaged 125 targets (8.3 per game), 84 receptions (5.6 per game), 1,207 receiving yards (80.5 per game), and 10 touchdowns from 2017-2021.

Hill’s presence has ensured that Waddle will not replicate his role as Miami’s WR1 as he did during 2021 when DeVante Parker resided directly below him on the depth chart. Hill’s arrival also narrowed the pathway toward extensive targeting that had propelled Waddle to WR8 from Weeks 6-18 last season.

Tua to Tyreek Hill for a 65-yard touchdown at the @MiamiDolphins training camp just now. #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/cQ0I9zf0mq

— Miami Sports (@SportsInMiami) July 30, 2022

McDaniel coached under Kyle Shanahan for nine seasons and maintained an intricate role in the success of San Francisco’s rushing attack. His restructured offense in Miami should utilize the same wide zone blocking that was deployed during his tenure with the 49ers. This should also expand the Dolphins' reliance on the ground game, as only three teams utilized their rushing attack with greater frequency than the 49ers last season (48.4%).

Diontae Johnson (42/WR18), Terry McLaurin (43/WR19), and Brandin Cooks (50/WR24) are all enticing options that are currently being chosen after Waddle. He is also contending with an undisclosed injury, and his situation should be monitored if uncertainty fuels a drop in his ADP.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks - ADP 47/WR23

D.K. Metcalf with a grown man touchdown pic.twitter.com/t3RX80lAyw

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 31, 2021

Metcalf possesses an extraordinary blend of exceptional size, blazing speed, and uncommon explosiveness that combine to deliver game-breaking capabilities to any matchup that he is involved in.

This ignited Metcalf’s rise to a second-round selection during the 2021 draft season (22/WR6), after he had finished 14th in targets (129/8.1 per game) while soaring to second in air yards (1,768/110.5 per game) and sixth in both receiving yards (1,303) and touchdowns (10) during 2020. He also completed his second season at eighth overall in yards per target (10.1) and 11th in yards per reception (15.7).

It appeared that only a production-inhibiting health issue would override Metcalf’s boundless home-run potential to the point of creating excessive risk in selecting him at his draft position.

However, Metcalf’s numbers largely declined last season which included a slight drop in targets per game (7.6) and a larger reduction in receptions (75/4.4 per game) and receiving yards (967/96.9 per game). He also registered a cluster of career lows in yards per target (7.5), yards per reception (12.9), receptions of 20+ (11), and receptions of 40+ (11). Metcalf also tied his career-low by only reaching 100 yards in one contest, after accomplishing it five times during 2020.

Metcalf was also targeted on a team-high 26.3% of his routes and averaged 1.97 yards per route run, while his statistical downturn was also offset by his career-best 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, that did not prevent his drop from WR7 to WR14 when contrasted with his encouraging 2020 regular season.

A protracted foot issue and the three-game absence of Russell Wilson (finger) contributed to the sweeping decline in his numbers. Those factors could have diffused massive concern surrounding Metcalf’s ability to rebound statistically entering the 2022 regular season - if the Seahawks had addressed a glaring talent deficiency under center that developed following the departure of Wilson.

Instead, Seattle’s roster does not contain a signal caller that will be capable of capitalizing on Metcalf’s unique abilities. This has created an alarming scenario due to the deficient quarterback play that will exist this season, as Metcalf will be reliant on Drew Lock or Geno Smith to locate him accurately and consistently.

Geno Smith: 10/15, 101 yards, 2 rushes for 9 yards, 1 rushing TD. Led 2 scoring drives on 5 tries.

Drew Lock: 11/15, 102 yards, 2 passing TDs. 1 run for 3 yards. Led 2 scoring drives on 5 tries. Also had costly fumble late.

— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) August 14, 2022

The impending issues that will arise due to substandard quarterback play has launched the descent of Metcalf’s ADP into Round 4. However, this diminished investment still contains risk, and it is easy to envision Metcalf’s phenomenal talent being wasted on a weekly basis.

Geno Smith can have good drives. The biggest problem in 2021 was the rate of HORRIBLE drives. Out of 32 drives in 3 starts, Seahawks had 11 3-and-outs (33%), 6 drives that lost yardage (19%), 17 drives of 15 yards or less (53%).
Avoids turnovers? Good. Avoids yards? Bad.

— Seaside Joe: Daily Seahawks Newsletter (@seasidejoenews) August 18, 2022

Eight-year-veteran Tyler Lockett will also be negatively impacted by the mammoth inadequacies of Smith and Lock, who has returned after contending with COVID-19. However, Lockett’s Round 8 ADP (96/WR43) is less concerning even though he is similarly destined to deliver underwhelming numbers in Seattle’s diminished aerial attack. It is understandable if you are inclined to consider an investment in Metcalf’s collection of home-run capabilities, but you should avoid doing so at his ADP.

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints - ADP 60/WR31

Other than the Andrew Luck retirement, was there a worse 1st round dynasty startup pick than Michael Thomas in 2020?

— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) May 26, 2022

Thomas generated nearly 100 more fantasy points than any other wide receiver during the 2019 regular season, while his name was a mainstay atop the league lead in targets (185/11.6 per game), receptions (149/9.3 per game), receiving yards (1,735/107.8 per game), yards before catch (1,142), red zone targets (26), and first downs (91). This was also the culmination of a four-year sequence in which his output rose on an annual basis.

However, much has transpired to disrupt what had become a stellar career since that exceptional 2019 season. Thomas’ statistical ascension was derailed in 2020 when ankle and hamstring issues conspired to sideline him for nine games. His season ended abruptly in Week 14, and protracted ankle problems have prevented him from registering a regular-season snap since that that absence began.

He was limited to just seven matchups during that 2020 season, and the results were underwhelming when contrasted with the numbers that he accumulated in previous years. However, the prospects of Thomas returning to the field have incentivized fantasy managers to select him in Round 5 of current drafts.

The last time that we saw Michael Thomas put up over 100 yards in a single game was Dec. 6th, 2020.

— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) April 4, 2022

His rising ADP now resides among a cluster of wide receivers who should remain productive without forcing you to contend with the collection of concerns that currently surround Thomas. This includes Darnell Mooney (55/WR27), Rashod Bateman (58/WR29), and Elijah Moore (65/WR32). Thomas’ draft position becomes more questionable when you consider the massive transformation that has occurred in New Orleans during his absence.

The Saints have entered Year Two of the post-Drew Brees era, and Jameis Winston is now entrusted with locating Thomas. The team has also transitioned from Sean Payton after he was the architect of the offense for 16 seasons. This has elevated Pete Carmichael Jr. into full-time duties as a play caller. Carmichael Jr. operated as the Saints’ offensive coordinator from 2009-2021, but Payton designed the plays throughout the vast majority of his tenure as head coach.

Not only will Thomas resurface with a new signal caller while operating in a new offense, but he returns to a passing attack that will contain legitimate competition for targets.

Chris Olave’s potential toward making an immediate impact was discussed here, as the Saints jettisoned three draft picks in order to secure Olave with the 11th selection in April’s NFL Draft. He should ascend into a prominent role in the reshaped offense, where his undeniable speed and ball skills should result in consistent separation and favorable numbers during his initial season.

Jarvis Landry was also added to the Saints’ aerial attack during the offseason, and he should function as a consistent weapon in the slot. It is conceivable that Thomas achieves sustained health throughout the season and ultimately resuscitates his career.

However, he is currently dealing with a hamstring issue. Upon his return, he must also overcome the challenges of his extended absence, the departure of Brees, and the redistribution of targets within the Saints' restructured receiving arsenal. All of these hurdles could impede him from delivering a sufficient return on your investment at his escalating ADP.

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans - ADP 76/WR36

Cardinals’ Pro-Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins is being suspended six games for violating the NFL’s Performance Enhancing Drug policy, league sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/hNGNX4Aegx

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 2, 2022

The one certainty for anyone who selects Hopkins is the inevitability that you cannot infuse him into your lineup until October 20. That inconvenience is the result of his six-game suspension for violation of the NFL's Performance Enhancing Drug policy. This  supplies a sizable deterrent that should dissuade you from considering him at his current ADP (76/WR36).

The consistent decline in both his overall production and his per-game averages during 2021 delivers additional incentive to elude him at his draft position. Hopkins began last season having accumulated 1,208 targets, 748 receptions, 10,009 receiving yards, and 60 touchdowns since his 2013 rookie season. He had also averaged 9.6 targets, 5.9 receptions, and 79.4 yards during that span while those averages rose to 10.2 targets/6.3 receptions/83.7 yards from 2014-2020.

Hopkins entered 2021 atop a depth chart that included Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and Rondale Moore, and was expected to retain his presence among the league leaders in his customary categories. However, Hopkins contended with multiple injuries (hamstring/ACL), which sidelined him for seven games, while also relegating him to career-lows in targets (64), receptions (42), receiving yardage (572), first downs (32), and 100-yard performances (0).

While the availability issue might initially be pinpointed as the source for an overall drop in his numbers, his per-game averages also plunged during his disappointing season (6.4 targets/4.2 receptions/57.2 yards).

Hopkins also failed to play in at least 15 games for the first time in his career. This propelled Kirk to the team lead in targets (103/6.1 per game), receptions (77/4.5 per game), and receiving yards (982/57.8 per game) due to Hopkins’ extended absence after Hopkins entered 2021 as Arizona’s undisputed WR1. That status is now in doubt, although Kirk’s relocation to Jacksonville has extracted him from the equation.

However, the Cardinals secured Kyler Murray’s college teammate Marquise Brown during the first night of April’s NFL Draft. This has required Brown to learn a new offensive system, although his familiarity with the Cardinals' fourth-year signal caller will boost his chances of becoming an immediate contributor to Arizona’s aerial efforts. It will also create additional competition for Hopkins, as Brown has been injected into a depth chart that still includes Green and Moore.

Kyler Murray + Marquise Brown connection at Oklahoma in 2018

12 games
75 receptions
1318 yards
10 touchdowns
————————————
22.2 PPR per game 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XS2FAZ82ka

— Curtis Patrick 🥇 (@CPatrickNFL) August 21, 2022

Hopkins also turned 30 in June, which should add another layer of apprehension if you are considering him at his Round 7 ADP. There are other wide receivers with similar draft positions - including DeVonta Smith (81/WR37), Brandon Aiyuk (83/WR38), and Drake London (84/WR40) - who do not present a similar assortment of red flags.

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP 111/WR49

2020 Steelers Season Flashback: WR Chase Claypool’s shreds Eagles for 4 touchdowns #Steelers pic.twitter.com/IQtQxZ82oH

— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) June 1, 2021

Exactly one year ago, fantasy managers’ enthusiasm for securing Claypool during the draft process elevated his ADP into Round 6 (66/WR25). This was in response to the promising numbers that he constructed during his 2020 rookie season, as he eclipsed 100 targets (109/6.8 per game) and finished ninth overall in air yards (1,438). Claypool also collected 14 receptions of 20+ and tied for eighth in touchdowns (nine). This fueled his rise to WR23 in scoring, while he also averaged 13.4 points per game.

However, Claypool was unable to build upon the favorable results of his first season, as he failed to progress into a higher tier during 2021. This has combined with offseason developments within Pittsburgh’s offense to ignite a precipitous plunge in his ADP. He now remains available until Round 10, and there is a sizable rationale for avoiding him even at that draft position.

A cluster of Claypool’s numbers declined in 2021 when contrasted with his first season, including target share (18.6/16.7), targets (109/105), receptions (62/59), receiving yards (873/860), and air yards (1,438/1,202). His yards after catch (329/283), yards after the catch per reception (5.3/4.8), and aDOT (13.2/11.4) also diminished, as did his catch rate (56.9%/56.2%).

Claypool also failed to approach his 2020 touchdown total, as he only scored twice during the 15 games that he was on the field. That enormous decline became a major factor in the reduction of his scoring, as he completed his second season at WR37 while averaging 11.1 points per game.

These discouraging results occurred due to a variety of factors, which included the increasing limitations of (then) 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger. There has been considerable off-season conjecture surrounding the transition from Roethlisberger to either first-round draft selection Kenny Pickett or sixth-year veteran Mitchell Trubisky.

It is reasonable to expect either signal caller to improve upon Roethlisberger’s average of 6.7 intended air yards per attempt, which ranked an anemic 32nd overall. However, that will do nothing to reduce the burgeoning competition for targets that Claypool must contend with during the season.

Diontae Johnson was one of only three receivers who averaged over 10 targets per game average last season (10.6) while also finishing sixth overall in target share (28.4%). He has now led Pittsburgh in targets during each of his first three seasons and will sustain his role as the Steelers' WR1 amid the transition from Roethlisberger.

He did not see a target in the first quarter, but George Pickens played all but one snap - he saw the field more than Chase Claypool

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 20, 2022

JuJu Smith-Schuster has relocated to Kansas City, although his departure does not necessarily create a path for Claypool to attain a higher target share. Pittsburgh was compelled to invest a second-round selection on George Pickens during April’s NFL draft, and the newcomer should quickly emerge as an explosive and prolific weapon.

The 6’3”, 200-pound Pickens will operate with a 6’5 3/8” wingspan, which should blend favorably with his size and speed. He also appears destined to join Johnson in operating outside, while Claypool will run routes from the slot.

Chase Claypool slot% by year, per @PFF

2020: 22.4%
2021: 17.8%

Claypool lined up in the slot on 14 of 16 Preseason Week 2 snaps.

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) August 21, 2022

Claypool performed from the slot on 26.3% of his routes last season and a larger role inside could be beneficial. However, the Steelers will also keep Johnson, Pickens, and tight end Pat Freiermuth involved in their redesigned attack. This should incentivize you to consider alternative options at Claypool’s current ADP.

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