Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - BMW Championship

It was a weird article last week, with major news on Cam Smith hitting the airwaves shortly after publishing the article. He managed to ignore most outside noise of his imminent departure to LIV and strolled into Sunday as the betting favorite...before getting a two-shot penalty assessed for an improper drop on Saturday, all but tarnishing his chances of taking home the win for us.

Will Zalatoris managed to keep the putter rolling under pressure, outlasting Sepp Straka in a three-hole playoff. It was only a matter of time until one of the best iron players on tour found himself hoisting a trophy. He has now broken through and the sky is the limit over the next decade.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

Wilmington Country Club, Par: 71, Yardage: 7,534, Greens: Bent, Designer: Robert Trent Jones. Sr

This week, the par of the course exceeds the participants who will be trying to break it. With just 68 of the very best golfers teeing it up, the lack of any prior event data leaves us reverse engineering key stats and probable proximity ranges.

WCC appears lengthy at 7,534 yards, but with the three Par 5s totaling 1.2 miles, the majority of the holes will result in shorter irons or wedges. Fairways appear narrow with thick rough guarding stray drives, but with hole yardages playing relatively short, a wedge out of the rough into some of the largest greens on tour should see a lot of pros with many birdie putts of varying length.

General excellence off the tee, along with distance sprinkled into the equation will presumably offer those types of golfers the best opportunity to succeed. With the tour stopping here for the first time, we can estimate that the top of the leaderboard will fall just shy of -20, making birdies paramount.

Below are the settings for the model:

• We use two seasons of data for all metrics that don't have an L24 (last 24 rounds). "Szn Weight" is comprised of 74% 2022 stats and 26% 2021 stats.
• Golfer power rankings are generated with stats (80%), OWGR (10%), and L24 strokes gained total (10%), course history (0%).

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more. This week is going to be a little different with how we go about betting outrights, as the lack of information on the course and limited field size offers limited value when perusing the odds board.

With 68 players slated to play in the second-last event of the season, there is no cut, offering us opportunity to pounce on a Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, or Rory McIlroy after round one, if they have a poor putting display while striking the ball well. If we roll out Sam Burns, Tom Kim and Emiliano Grillo we have enough budget to bet one of the studs at 35-1 if they faulter early.

If you are not that way inclined, we still have five guys who will leave you with no mid tournament homework after placing the initial bets.

Sam Burns ($4.85 @ +2500 on most books)

Sam Burns has won three times this year. He now heads to a venue that rewards distance, stellar wedge play and talented putters (we think). He is also one of the premier birdie makers on tour and fancies his chances on Bent greens even if he is known as "Bermuda Burns". If he can play to his ceiling, which is what we bet on a player for, Sam Burns can turn a tournament on its head when his putter gets hot.

His approach play has been really consistent lately and his advantage over the field definitely comes from inside 150 yards, which is where the majority of birdies should be made from this week. If the driver can provide him with some momentum early and his putter starts to cook the multitude of birdie opportunities his wedges provide, Sam Burns should head to East Lake atop the FedExCup Playoff rankings.

Joohyung "Tom" Kim ($3.55 @ +3500 on DraftKings)

Tom Kim finds himself on our card for a third straight week. He does not suit the bomber narrative we pursued with Burns, but he is the most accurate driver in this field (he jumps to 7th when adjusting the model for accuracy and 125-175 proximity ranges). He gained off the tee and on approach in all four rounds last week, losing three strokes putting on Friday which sunk his chances to win.

We have seen Kim putt exceptionally well under pressure while his reliable ball striking provides him with a floor that places him in immediate contention the moment he starts rolling in putts. In a field saturated with the world's best, he finds himself inside the top 10 in birdie or better percentage which will be critical this week. In his six non-major starts he has finished no worse than T26. Let's add another trophy to your storage rental or wherever you are keeping your stuff, Tom!

Max Homa ($2.45 @ +5000 on most books)

The two-time winner on the season and world number 22 is slapped with a disrespectful 50-1 price tag. He managed to find the penalty area in all four rounds last week and still finished T42, which is probably why we are seeing this kind of number. This course offers far less opportunities to squander away shots, with water only present on four holes. Limit the big numbers, lean on your driver that has gained half a stroke a round this year, dominate the par 5s and win your third event of the year, Max!

Keegan Bradley ($1.25 @ +10000 on BetMGM)

I fear we may have missed our opportunity to win something when he lost to Max Homa at the Wells Fargo earlier this year. However, Keegan remains one of the steadiest drivers of the ball, flexing accuracy and distance which should serve him well at WCC. He also possesses immense upside with his irons when he gets in the groove, gaining 16 strokes on approach at the US Open and Travelers in June.

His putter has resorted back to flashing hot and cold and although he lost strokes putting on the way to his missed cut last week, he gained 2.2 strokes on the Bent greens at the Rocket Mortgage Classic which was only two events ago. If the stars align and Bradley can keep his frantic nerves under control, he can do what he did in 2018 and win his second BMW Championship.

Emiliano Grillo ($0.85 @ +15000 on DK)

Since his T2 at the John Deere Classic in early July, Emiliano Grillo has only lost strokes putting in four of his last 14 rounds (which is good for him). His ball striking has reverted back to what we once saw he was capable of, averaging half a stroke off the tee and 0.7 strokes on approach over those 14 rounds. His shaky around the green game should be drastically nullified with his level of ball striking and massive greens. It's a long shot, but the Argentine has two T2s in his last few starts and is a magical week away from a win.

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First-Round Leaders

From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12 on four guys to net $110 or more.

Rory McIlroy ($6.55 @ +1800 on FanDuel)

Prior to last week's sloppy performance which we can chalk down as an Open hangover, Rory McIlroy has gained 39 strokes on the field in his last seven opening rounds (averaging +5.6). We may be on the losing end of this sensational run, but we sure would feel like a bozo if we never at least took one last crack at him on a Thursday.

Russell Henley ($2.45 @ +5000 on Ceasars)

Russell Henley has the 15th best round one scoring average and is averaging +1.5 strokes on approach over his last 10 rounds. One good putting performance from Russell, and he could find himself atop the Thursday leaderboard.

K.H. Lee ($1.45 @ +8500 on FanDuel)

K.H. Lee is one of nine players in this field to average over two strokes in round one this year. Five times he has gained over five strokes on the field on Thursday, yet he finds himself at 85-1, which is a bet that should be placed every week at that price.

Emiliano Grillo ($1.55 @ +8000 on most books)

The putter has been cooking lately and his ball striking should suit this course remarkably well. Very nice number too.

Placings

We have seven placing bets, four top 10s, two top 20s, and a top 40. BetMGM has odds out this week for T10 and T20. DraftKings has odds for T40. When a book offers ties paid in full, we are willing to drop the odds required to meet the betting threshold by 30 points, as avoiding dead heat rules is worth paying that premium. This saved our bacon with a few bets last week!

Justin Thomas (T10: $10 @ +110 on BetMGM)

Xander Schauffele (T10: $10 @ +140 on BetMGM)

Sam Burns (T10: $10 @ +175 on BetMGM)

Viktor Hovland (T10: $10 @ +210 on BetMGM)

Tom Kim (T20: $11 @ -110 on BetMGM)

Emiliano Grillo (T20: $10 @ +275 on BetMGM)

Tom Hoge (T40: $9 @ +105 on DraftKings)

The Farewell Fiver

Keegan Bradley (T10: $5 @ +500 on BetMGM)

Per last week's article, "Keegan Bradley has been one of my favorite golfers to bet on, as a ball striker like him who seems to have found a putter, offers a lot of upside if the two parts of his game can quit feuding with each other". We are back on Keegan again, and hopefully it finally pays off for us!

FedEx St. Jude Recap:

• Outright: $-13
• FRL: $-12
• Placings: $8
• Farewell Fiver: -$5
• Total: $-22
• Season Total: $342.95

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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