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Hello again everyone! We dig into August as the Federated Auto Parts 400 comes to us from Richmond Raceway in Richmond, Virginia. This is the 24th 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where first nets 45 points, second is worth 42, third is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Kyle Larson Under 61.5 Points. This is difficult because Larson has historically shown speed early in these races. Does he lead enough laps and does he place well enough is the question. Negative place differential from the pole may help this prop choice just enough. The high point total assumes he will automatically set some fast laps. Though that is possible early, how many again is the question. Nothing is quite certain here. However, the chances Larson nets 60 points is less than a coin flip. Pick the under.
Kyle Busch Under 67.5 Points. The choice is not a given as the younger Busch races quite well on short-track courses. However, with the Next-Gen car things have not gone quite so smoothly. Kyle Busch has not finished in the top-10 since early June. That is eight straight races. In the Spring race at Richmond, the No. 18 car ended up ninth after starting third. He did not lead a lot of laps and did not set any fastest laps either. So, while he is expected to move up and contend. Does he come close enough to winning or setting any fast laps? That seems questionable at best. The math does not look to add up unless he finishes in the top-five. He only has one of those in the last six appearances. Pick the under.
Brad Keselowski Over 24.5 Points. This is the RFK Racing risk of risks. Keselowski starts 12th and despite some positive history, does Keselowski maintain track position well enough to rack up the points needed? That is a valid question. He can win almost anywhere but his improved finishes of late offer hope. The Ford drives just well enough that he does not lose too much track position. Taking the over is not an easy choice but one at least take a shot on Sunday.
Alex Bowman Under 34.5 Points. The danger keeps adding up rapidly on Sunday as Bowman does have four top-12 results in his last four races. That includes a win and some led laps too but that was the Spring 2021 race. The previous two Fall appearances show Bowman in 12th and ninth, respectively. That does create a buffer to choose the under on Sunday but not much margin for error. However, it is fun to add a little intrigue and go for this prop anyway!
Ryan Blaney Under 47.5 Points. This could prove to work on Sunday. The idea that Blaney could come under 47.5 points is not crazy. He starts 10th, which means again if he drops, that is fewer points possible. The Team Penske driver does have an average finish of 11.1 at short tracks. However, part of that involved attrition and at Richmond, that number balloons beyond 15. That is concerning enough to opt with the under on Sunday.
Some Other Drivers to Look At
Joey Logano (Over 47.5 points) -- Joey Logano could come close on Sunday to his prop. The nice thing is that Logano is starting to get some results again (sixth at Indy, fourth at Michigan). That basically is all which is needed on Sunday to guarantee the points needed. Add in a few laps led and this is a very close prop. Take the over as Logano could easily sneak up on racers late to nab his fifth top-five in his last seven races at Richmond.
Daniel Suarez (Under 47.5 points) -- Expect some crazy on Sunday and even though Suarez starts 24th, how much does he move up? The TrackHouse Racing driver will face an interesting test as he probably needs to end up somewhere in the top-10 to connect on the prop itself. There is some doubt as to whether Suarez can on Sunday given his late-run intervals were a few tenths off in the final two turns. Maybe there is some late speed to be found in the car but what if there is not? Take the under here.
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