Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 10

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 10, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

There were tons of different rabbits to chase this week as we saw plenty of strong starts from interesting fringe arms, and this week we had the pleasure of deep-diving into three rolling right-handers. In this piece we'll be breaking down Atlanta's fireballer Spencer Strider, Texas's big free agent signee Jon Gray, and Toronto's possibly reinvented Ross Stripling.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 6/13/22.

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Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves – 48% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 32.2 IP, 2.76 ERA, 2.19 FIP, 23.3% K-BB%
6/10 v. PIT: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

It’s been sort of a will-they, won’t-they situation with Strider and the Braves rotation. Strider was one of the Braves most regarded pitching prospects coming into 2022, and without a reliable number five starter it seemed like Strider could be a perfect fit. They had been using him out of the bullpen in a long relief role until the end of May, when the prayers of fantasy managers were finally answered and Strider was promoted to the rotation. It’s gone well thus far, with a 2.57 ERA through three starts. Strider put up his best performance this past weekend, fanning eight Pirates over 5.2 scoreless innings for the best start of his young career. Fantasy managers are running to the waiver wire to add Strider, but is he the real deal?

Originally a fourth round pick by Atlanta back in 2020, Strider came into the organization a bit under the radar as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, which cost him his 2019 collegiate season. While his health is a risk, the Braves may have been willing to roll the dice on Strider because the young man boasts big fastball velocity. Strider averages the upper 90s on his fastball – sitting around 97-98 MPH — and can touch 101 on the gun. He complements his heat with a slurve-like slider and a scarcely used changeup, rounding out a repertoire defined by quality over broadness.

Let’s start with Strider’s fastball, as it’s the pitch most people associate with him. As mentioned above, Strider throws the pitch in the upper 90s, and impressively has been able to maintain that velocity in a starting role. In this most recent start, Strider averaged 97.7 MPH and topped 100 MPH twice. This type of velocity puts him in rare company, as only one qualified starter (Hunter Greene) has an average fastball velocity higher than 97.7 MPH as of writing this. Batters have been confounded by this pitch, as opponents are hitting just .184 off the pitch with a .262 SLG and .309 xwOBA. What makes his fastball so effective extends beyond sheer velocity; we’ve seen plenty of hard-throwers come up to the majors and get shellacked in the past. Strider’s able to combine top-level heat with above-average spin and a steady diet of high fastballs to routinely fool hitters and garner whiffs. Strider averages 2343 RPM with his fastball and has a 93.6% active spin rate with the pitch, both putting him firmly in the top 25% of the league. Active spin refers to spin that actually contributes to the baseball’s movement, and high active spin contributes to fastball deceptiveness.

You may often hear baseball players and announcers refer to a “rising fastball,” but this is actually a misconception caused by active spin. A pitch cannot rise after it leaves the pitcher’s hand due to the force of gravity, but the backspin of a fastball like Spencer Strider’s causes the pitch to appear to rise to the hitter thanks to the Magnus Effect. A (super duper brief) explanation is that the backspin causes the ball to resist gravity and not follow the path the batter anticipates, so the ball reaches the plate higher in the air than the hitter expects, thus it appears rising.

This becomes really deadly when a pitcher can combine high active spin with strong velocity and the ability to keep the ball high in or above the zone. Let’s have a look at Strider’s fastball heatmaps for 2022 and see how he’s doing.

He is really attacking the high part of the zone, which makes it especially hard for opponents to catch up to his velocity. Let’s have a look at the swing rate and whiff rate heatmaps for the same pitch.

High fastballs look juicy for opposing hitters, so it’s no surprise to see Strider get so many swings-and-misses with this approach, especially considering the strong measurables on the pitch. One rather impressive number linked to Strider’s fastball is the chase rate, which is an incredible 29.6%. He likely can’t sustain that over a full year, but it demonstrates just how effective this fastball has been. It’s only been a small sample for Strider in the majors thus far, but he has all the ingredients of a winning heater.

Outside of the fastball Strider has one other pitch he relies on heavily, which is his slider. It’s an interesting pairing, as Strider’s slider is a slower offering compared to his fastball at just 85.4 MPH, and it has sharp vertical movement, often being referred to as a slurve instead of a traditional slider. Batters have been stymied by this pitch as well, hitting just .179 against the pitch with a .179 SLG and .195 xwOBA. It also has a monster 20% swinging strike rate and 34.4% chase rate. Here’s an example from his start against Colorado.

It's not the best slider I’ve ever seen, but it's a solid offering especially when the opponent also has to look out for that high heat. While it would be hard to envision Strider maintaining his 36.8% strikeout rate over a full season, his fastball and slider should allow him to be an above average strikeout pitcher even when regression comes.

From a raw stuff perspective, Strider looks awfully impressive. His fastball has all the qualities we like to see, and his slider is an above average breaking ball. Outside of those two pitches, there’s a bit to be concerned with. Strider’s health and durability is a big question mark. As previously mentioned, he did have TJ surgery in 2019 and he only threw 96.1 innings last season. He will likely be on a strict pitch count and/or innings limit this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him head back to the bullpen down the stretch. He’s also been quite wild at times, issuing five walks in his start against Colorado earlier this month and posting a double-digit walk rate at Double-A last season. He currently has an exorbitant 12.3% walk rate, which will likely drop over time, but free passes will be an issue for him. Finally, his repertoire is limited and Strider is effectively a two-pitch pitcher, which may lead to volatility on a start-by-start basis, a trait that may be compounded by his control woes at times. Altogether, this is a talented young man that deserves a roster spot in most leagues, but he’s still early in his development process and one should not expect too much of him this year.

Verdict:

Strider has everything we like to see in a fastball. Velocity, spin, location, and most importantly, results. He pairs that pitch with a nasty slurve for a dominant 1-2 punch that’s been KO’ing batters left and right. Strider should be a reliable source of strikeouts and ERA this season. Injury and innings concerns limit his upside as he likely won’t pitch deep into games or remain in Atlanta’s rotation all year. Control issues and a limited arsenal mean Strider could be prone to off days and volatile performances across starts. He’s still got plenty of room for growth, but Strider can contribute value as a starter in 2022 and is worth an add in most leagues 12 teams or deeper.

Jon Gray, Texas Rangers – 29% Rostered

2022 Stats (before this start): 46 IP, 5.28 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 14.4% K-BB%
6/12 @ CWS: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 10 K

There was a time when fantasy managers dreamed about a world where Jon Gray pitched for a team other than the Rockies. Much like German Marquez prior to 2022, Gray was seen as an unfortunate potential ace, his monstrous upside held back by the unfriendly confines of Coors Field. The day finally came where Gray got out, inking a four-year deal with the Rangers this offseason, but few seemed to care. Gray is 30 now, and most of us have moved past what could have been. That seemed like the right call at the beginning of the year, as Gray had a 5.56 ERA heading into June, but a pair of dominant starts (and a stinker sandwiched in between them) have Gray back on fantasy radars. Is he finally the pitcher we hoped for, or will Jon Gray burn us again, this time without the ballpark excuse to fall back on?

Originally the third overall pick by Colorado back in 2013, it’s easy to see how Gray garnered so much hype. He has everything the scouts love in a pitcher. He’s big-bodied at 6’4” and 225 pounds, and he pairs mid-90s heat with three strong secondary offerings, the slider, curveball, and changeup. Gray has had his ups-and-downs over the years in Colorado, but to his credit (or detriment), not much has changed for him over that time. He’s still using the same four-pitch approach that’s heavy on fastballs and sliders. The only big change for him is that Gray has further deemphasized his curveball, using it just 4.1% of the time this season and throwing just two curveballs total in this start against Chicago.

This most recent start offers quite a window into how I think Gray wants to pitch and how he chooses to pitch when things are going well, since he relied almost exclusively on his fastball and slider. Gray’s fastball velocity has been slightly up this season, averaging 95.5 MPH on the gun so far, his highest average velocity since 2019. This has helped his fastball performance tremendously, as batters are hitting just .264 off the pitch (compared to .331 in 2021), although his .507 xSLG and .373 xwOBA are about the same as they were last season. Gray has neither the spin nor the high fastball aptitude of a Spencer Strider, so ultimately we’re looking at decently hard offering that does little else.

Gray’s best pitch is his slider, and it has performed well this season with a .208 AVG, .325 SLG, and .251 xwOBA against thus far. It also has a strong 18.6% swinging strike rate and 34% chase rate this season. What’s most interesting is about the pitch is the changes in movement this season compared to previous years. Gray has added extra drop and break to the pitch in 2022, and it now behaves closer to a traditional slider than the cutter-slider hybrid he was using in Colorado. Here’s a comparison of a Gray slider from 2021 (top) and 2022 (bottom).

The 2022 offering has a lot more movement away from right-handed hitters, as evidenced in these clips. When Gray first came to Texas he actually talked about changing his slider to add more movement. Texas’s pitching staff may have pressed Gray to make this change, or he may have felt more comfortable outside of Colorado to rely on a pitch where break is so integral, but either way, this is a move in the right direction for him. Gray currently has a career-high 26% strikeout rate, and with this new slider, that number seems sustainable over the long run.

While Gray relied so heavily on his fastball and slider in this start, I think he took this approach simply because the White Sox lineup allowed it to work. The opponent flailed away at Gray’s offerings in this start, and if he has his druthers, Gray would pitch exclusively with those two pitches. Obviously, that’s not realistic for every start, which is why it’s nice for Gray to have a deeper repertoire to fall back on. His changeup has been effective this season when needed, and he can throw a show-me curve to keep hitters off balance. While no one pitch stands out as truly special, the sum of the parts is an above average workhorse-type pitcher with strikeout upside.

Verdict:

Is Jon Gray finally the ace we expected now that he’s left Colorado? Probably not, and that’s probably because expectations were too high for him from the get-go. He does have above average fastball velocity and a reworked slider, which should allow for solid strikeout numbers going forward. Unlike many of the fringe pitchers we cover, Gray’s rotation spot is pretty safe and he should be a solid contributor all year, even if he’s not a league winner. If you want to add someone who you could stick with for the rest of the season and be happy with, Gray is a good choice, although his ceiling isn’t as high as some of the younger, more exciting pitchers out there.

Ross Stripling, Toronto Blue Jays – 25% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 37 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 14.9% K-BB%
6/12 @ DET: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

Stripling lost his rotation spot in May after a string of poor outings, but it’s been a triumphant return for the 32-year-old righty, who shut down the Tigers for his second straight scoreless outing on Sunday. This start lowered Stripling’s ERA to 3.14, his best since 2018 with the Dodgers. With Hyun-Jin Ryu expected to miss significant time, Stripling certainly has the opportunity to secure a regular spot in the Jays rotation going forward, but Stripling has proven inconsistent in the Great White North, owning a 4.50 ERA in 44 games with Toronto. Can he regain his past Dodger glory, or is Stripling simply not built for the AL East?

As a fifth-round pick out of college in 2012, Stripling wasn’t much of a prospect coming up in the Dodgers’ system. Not only because we thought the world would end that year on Dec. 21^st, but Stripling had poor velocity, especially for a 6’3” righty. He also underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, further hindering his development and prospect status. Stripling defied his critics and became an All-Star in LA, working with a five-pitch repertoire consisting of a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. While the arsenal is deep, the pitch that deserves our attention the most is Stripling’s changeup, which has been one of the biggest drivers of recent success.

Stripling did not feature his changeup all that much during the early part of his career, but started using the pitch more prominently after reaching Toronto. That may not seem like a good thing given Stripling’s aforementioned struggles with the Blue Jays, but his changeup isn’t to blame for poor performance. Batters are hitting just .184 against the changeup all time, with just a .150 AVG and .233 SLG off the pitch this season, along with an impressive 21.4% swinging strike rate.  Stripling has also begun throwing the pitch more frequently, with a 25.8% usage rate in 2022, by far a career-high. It’s not just that Stripling is using the pitch more frequently, but it’s how he’s incorporated the pitch into his sequencing and changed his approach. Here is a look at Stripling’s pitch usage from 2022 (top) compared to the rest of his career (bottom).

He went from using the pitch primarily against lefties to making it his go-to out pitch when ahead in the count, lessening his slider usage and nearly abandoning his curveball altogether. In his start against Detroit, the changeup was Stripling’s most used pitch, throwing it 36.5% of the time. This new changeup-centric approach should help Stripling consolidate a bloated arsenal and be more effective and efficient going forward.

Outside of the changeup, there isn’t that much to like about Stripling. His fastball only averages 91.8 MPH on the gun and is in the bottom-20% of spin in the league. His slider has an underwhelming 10.4% career swinging strike rate, and his curveball has been crushed for a .330 AVG and .500 SLG this season. The only other strong attribute Stripling can claim is his exceptional control, as Stripling has just a 4.7% walk rate this season and a 6.1% walk rate for his career. Even though he’s throwing fewer fastballs this season (33.6% usage in 2022 v. 41.3% career usage), Stripling has a long enough track record that we can trust his control to hold up even with a new approach.

Altogether, we’re looking at a pitcher who’s made the most of his limited raw abilities over the years, and this shift towards changeup usage should add a second life to a dwindling career. That being said, he doesn’t offer much in terms of upside as Stripling lacks the stuff to pile up strikeouts and seems to have a short leash as a starter despite being 32 years old. As a spot starter or back-end piece Stripling is fine, but not that interesting and probably not someone who can help turn a season around.

Verdict:

Stripling has adopted a new approach that allows him to feature his best pitches (changeup, slider) while eschewing the lesser ones (fastball, curveball). This should enable him to perform much better than he did over the previous two years, but the overall upside is still low. Stripling is incapable of producing big strikeout numbers and does not pitch deep into games regularly. Bear in mind that his two scoreless starts came against the Royals and Tigers, two of baseball’s weakest lineups. Stripling is relatively safe thanks to his low walk rate, but he’s not someone I’d trust in tough matchups yet. His next start comes Friday against the Yankees, which is a hard pass if you’re thinking about streaming him.

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