Hitter Advanced Metrics Risers and Fallers - FB/LD Exit Velocity for Week 8

In order to get to stats like barrels and hard-hit rate, you have to start with exit velocity. Exit velocity begins to stabilize after 45 batted-ball events. We're going to get more specific in this edition by focusing on exit velocity for fly balls and line drives because that's where power is found.

You could close eyes while looking at the leaderboard and still know that Aaron Judge is at the top with Giancarlo Stanton just behind him. There's not much to discuss there so i'll instead provide analysis on notable players whose fantasy value might be in question.

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FB/LD Exit Velocity Leaders

All stats courtesy of BaseballSavant and current as of 5/29/22

Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins

Those who drafted Correa this year as their starting shortstop have been left wanting for power; he's got just three homers over the first two months. It's not a matter of contact quality, however, as he ranks in the 93rd percentile for average exit velocity, 97th in hard-hit rate, and ranks third in EV for fly balls/line drives. His 10% Barrel% is second-best of his career.

If he's hitting the ball so hard in the air, what's the problem? He isn't hitting the ball in the air very often. Correa's 18% FB% is his lowest since 2016 and his 6.8 launch angle is the lowest of his career. Correa isn't too far off his norms, so there isn't a huge LA correction required here. He should eventually see progress as he gets closer to his expected slash line of .295/.373/.514. Correa may be a buy-low candidate if a fantasy manager is skeptical of Correa turning things around in Minnesota.

Jorge Soler, Miami Marlins

Soler won the World Series MVP with Atlanta and parlayed that into a three-year contract with Miami. The Cuba native was happy to be in South Florida but didn't get off to a great start, batting .171 with two HR and six RBI in April. He's getting back to his power-hitting ways, though. Soler just launched two homers against his former team to get to 11 HR and 25 RBI on the year.

Jorge Soler com dois home runs hoje#MakeItMiami pic.twitter.com/CWuDBwKwi8

— Beisebol Mundo Afora 🌍 (@beisebolmafora) May 29, 2022

Soler is now 30-years-old but his power hasn't waned in the slightest. His cold start is far from surprising; for his career, the first month of the season is when he posts the lowest slugging percentage at .397 and the highest K-rate at 30.8%. He's back to doing what he does and should be in all fantasy lineups based on how he's mashing.

Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves

Riley matched Soler with his 11th homer of the season in the same game on Sunday. If you follow @RotoBallerHR, then you noticed all the action in this contest!

Riley hasn't gotten off to the same start as last year when he was hitting over .300 but the power is actually a little better. After two months of action in 2021, Riley had 10 HR and 22 RBI. His metrics all tell of a young power hitter in his prime, although the one area that is worse so far is strikeout rate - hence the lower batting average.

Riley is scorching the ball regularly, as he has 65 hard-hit balls (95+ MPH). His average exit velocity is a full three points higher than it was last season. He should be in line for another 30-homer campaign easily. As far as batting average, it's interesting to note that his .275 xBA is pretty close to last year's .281 xBA. That means he overachieved a bit last year and is possibly due for some positive regression this year. In all, this is still a top-five third base option in fantasy.

Joey Gallo, New York Yankees

The fact I advocated for Gallo in this week's Outfield Waiver Wire recommendations might be head-scratching at first. He's been miserable in all facets, slashing .167/.270/.300 with five HR and just seven RBI over 120 at-bats. Yet, he still has an elite barrel rate and his .515 xwoBACON is his best since 2019. If only he could make contact more often...

Gallo has been dropped to ninth in the batting order and he didn't respond well on Sunday, going 0-for-4 with a K. Of course, he had to face one of the best left-handers in the game in Shane McClanahan. Gallo isn't guaranteed to get things going soon but I still believe he is worth stashing. We're a quarter of the way through the season and only 25 batters have reached double-digit home runs. If Gallo starts to come around, he'll be well worth occupying a bench spot in the meanwhile.

Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians

If you hadn't paid attention to Naylor being inserted into the Guardians' lineup when it first happened on April 15, you certainly did when he went ballistic on May 9.

Earlier this month @JoshNaylor44 did something never done before, scoring 8 RBI after the 8th inning in a game against the White Sox all while feeding off the hecklers all game. pic.twitter.com/q2exAMAhxb

— Jeremy Calo (@JC_Dsgn) May 25, 2022

Simply put, Naylor is finally having a breakout season. It's easy to forget that he was a first-round pick back in 2015 because he hasn't made a sustained impression on fantasy managers. Naylor has always had massive power. Now, he's finally harnessing it consistently.

When a slugger can maintain a career strikeout rate of 18.5%, down to 14.6% this season, that's the type of player you want to roster.

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