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Sometimes your bets don't go your way, but it's for a good cause. Yesterday, we weren't on the right side of the Blue Jays-Cardinals game, yet it's hard to not have fun watching Paul Goldschmidt, the league's top-performing hitter in May, work magic right now. The race between him and Freddie Freeman for the National League first baseman for the All-Star Game is going to come down to the wire.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Tuesday, May 24, 2022, for the 15-game 6:35 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all by all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Although we have a full slate of games, this isn't the best day in terms of there being a substantial amount of value. That being said, there are still some intriguing games with value opportunities to take a close look at. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SF -130
NYM: Chris Bassitt | SF: Logan Webb
Mike Petriello of MLB.com tweeted this yesterday, and I couldn't agree more:
Mets at Giants is such an aesthetically pleasing watch. I don't know if it's the classic unis or the shared NY history or the great park or that it only happens once a year, or all of it, but it's great viewing.
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) May 24, 2022
If you watch one game today, it should be this one, and not just for the aesthetically-pleasing reasons. For starters, these are two playoff contenders with plenty of interesting players, and with a matchup of Chris Bassitt and Logan Webb on the mound, you know it'll be a well-pitched game. That's exactly what we're looking for!
That being said, at plus money, the Mets certainly are the team that offers value here. For starters, we shouldn't gloss over how productive Chris Bassitt has been this season. In eight starts this season, the 33-year-old has an 18% K-BB ratio with a 3.44 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) and has a career-high 30.4% called-strike + whiff rate (CSW%). Notably, by throwing fewer sinkers and more sliders (39.1% whiff in 2021), he's unlocked even more with his arsenal, leading to a career-high 24.8% whiff rate, while he's averaging over six innings per start so far. In a contract year, he's setting himself up nicely for a strong free-agent contract.
The Giants lineup remains without Brandon Belt and LaMonte Wade Jr., who arguably are their top-two hitters versus right-handed-hitting pitching. The Mets, on the other hand, are a fringe top-five team against righties this year based on weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), and are the best team in the league against changeups (16.8 runs above average). Why is this important? Well, that's Logan Webb's most-used pitch.
Based on defensive runs above average, the Mets are also a top-ten defense, whereas the Giants are in the bottom-five, which is notable for two pitchers who tend to pound the zone frequently. Based on xFIP and SIERA, the New York's bullpen ranks in the top five as a bullpen, while San Francisco's ranks in the bottom ten. Shall we go on? Whenever you can get simply the better overall team without a massive expected pitching gap as a notable underdog, it is something to take advantage of. That's the Mets winning this game to a tee.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (+115), Caesars Sportsbook
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Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN -250
DET: Beau Brieske | MIN: Sonny Gray
Is it just me, or does every Tigers-Twins game seem to end on a Minnesota walk-off? Just me? Oh well.
Anyways, this game, as evidenced by Minnesota's moneyline, is not expected to come down to the wire. Considering this is a matchup between a top-ten team in run differential and a bottom-five team, that shouldn't be a surprise, though with the Twins' run line at (-119) and Detroit very unlikely to come out victorious (anything can happen in baseball, though!), it's hard to find value on either side here.
Of course, the total is a different story. Anytime you can fade the league's worst-performing offense based on wRC+, it's hard to pass, and that's what you're doing with a Tigers lineup that still is without outfielder Austin Meadows. No team is hitting for less power (.095 ISO) than them, while they rank in the bottom-three in walk rate. This is fantastic news for Twins starter Sonny Gray, who has been comfortably sitting around 92 MPH with his sinker and fastball since coming back from injury, and with his one main flaw being the tendency to walk batters, facing a team that chases certainly helps matters.
Remember, Gray is a pitcher who has been superb (2.72 SIERA) in his limited sample size (3 starts) since coming back from injury and had a 3.90 SIERA with a 19% K-BB ratio in the three seasons before this one. Against the struggling Detroit offense, it's hard to see him not continuing to flourish; the fact he was stretched out to six innings in his last start is also a very positive sign, and a quality start of similar length should be in order.
From there, we'll look for Tigers starter Beau Brieske to hold in his end of the bargain, which is difficult to trust considering he has a 5.43 SIERA and 3.5% K-BB in his first five career starts. For what it's worth, he does rank slightly above-average in Eno Sarris' pitching+ model (100.5), which holds plenty of predictive value. Brieske is probably not going to allow so much contact out of the zone (77.8%) or walk as many batters considering he's pounding the zone at a 52.7% rate. Again, with Gray facing Detroit, we're really looking for a non-blow-up outing here, which is a chance worth taking.
Does this hold some risk? Yes. Is it worth taking the under in this run-scoring environment with the league's worst offense involved? Also yes. As they say, it takes two to tango, and with this game, we're looking at a standard freestyle during a middle school dance. On a Sonny day, go low for Beau!
Pick: Tigers Twins Under 8.5 Runs (-110), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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