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What a tremendous weekend of baseball. Top prospect Adley Rutschman made his much-anticipated MLB debut, Manny Machado continues to put together a dominant run for NL MVP, and we had plenty of exciting extra-inning finishes. What else could you ask for from the game that keeps on giving?
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, May 23, 2022, for the 12-game 6:35 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all by all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. For a Monday, 12 games is a strong amount, and as a result, that has led to potential value opportunities to take advantage of. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: ATL -102
PHI: Zack Wheeler | ATL: Tucker Davidson
Both of these teams came into the year with massive expectations, which would expect between a team ranked fourth in payroll (Phillies) and the reigning World Series champions (Braves). That being said, these two NL East teams have gotten off to slow starts, and as they look to right the ship, this will be a pivotal series.
Fortunately for the Phillies, they have the perfect pitcher to get this series on the right track. After dealing with shoulder soreness during spring training, Zack Wheeler didn't have the greatest beginning to his season. Yet, last year's runner-up in the NL Cy Young award winner has a 31.3% strikeout rate, 25% K-BB ratio, and 2.71 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) in his last four starts, and a lot of that can be tied to his velocity.
Wheeler's fastest 15 pitches this season have come in his last three starts, indicating that he's getting closer to full health. At this point, it's hard to treat him as anything other than the ace an impact ace, and with him stretched out to at least six innings in three of his last four starts, he'll be able to provide Philadelphia with a lot of length.
On the other hand, the Phillies have been a strong offense overall, but especially against left-handed pitching (seventh in weighted-runs-created-plus/wRC+). In his 29.1 career MLB innings, Braves starter Tucker Davidson hasn't been particularly impressive (5.31 SIERA, 18.2% K, 6% K-BB), and while he has been effective in the minors, being 25-years-old or older in Triple-A means that those statistics need to be taken with a greater grain of salt.
These two teams are roughly equivalent in terms of talent level, yet Philadelphia has a significant pitching advantage here. In total, this warrants them being a much larger favorite than they currently are, but they only have around a 53.5% implied chance of winning that game. Based on the context of this game, they seem to be quite undervalued here
Picks: Philadelphia Moneyline (-116), FanDuel Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays @ St.Louis Cardinals
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: STL -118
TOR: Jose Berrios | STL: Miles Mikolas
Coming into this season, the Blue Jays were expected to be a force to be reckoned with. So far, though, they're in third place in the AL East with a 22-19 record, while they rank in the bottom-five in runs scored. Remember, this was a lineup that was expected to be absolutely unstoppable.
That being said, based on THE BAT X projections, this is a lineup with an average wRC+ of 122, the sixth-highest in baseball, while seven of their nine hitters project for a 106 wRC+ or better. In essence, it's only a matter of time before they hit their stride. For instance, they're a very aggressive offense that ranks fifth in zone-swing rate, and they now get to face a pitcher in Miles Mikolas that doesn't induce many whiffs (7.3% swinging-strike rate), but relies on called strikes by pounding the ball in the zone (53.2%). What better time for his elite home run luck (0.37 HR/9) than against one of the most powerful teams in baseball?
With a 4.75 SIERA in eight starts this season, Jose Berrios hasn't lived up to his reputation so far. At the same time, it's unclear if there is anything particularly worth being concerned about. Per Eno Sarris' stuff+ (108.1) and pitching+ (106.1) model, which holds substantial predictive power, his underlying numbers have actually improved from last year and based on his career track record, it's hard to expect his quality of contact allowed numbers not to improve from its unsustainably high levels. As someone who relies on chases outside of the zone, facing the team with the highest chase rate is a great fit for them, and he'll also be hitting in arguably the worst ballpark for opposing hitters to thrive in, per Baseball Savant park factors.
The Blue Jays remain the significantly more talented team, and still have the much better pitcher here, while the specific pitcher/hitter matchups in terms of plate discipline tendencies favor them as well. Yet, you can get them at practically plus money to win this game. When that opportunity presents itself, it's one that is quite difficult to pass up.
Pick: Toronto Moneyline (+100), FanDuel Sportsbook
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New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SF -147
NYM: David Peterson| SF: Alex Cobb
Talk about a slate filled with matchups between playoff contenders! Heading into today, only the Dodgers and Yankees have a better winning percentage than the Mets, while the Giants are coming off of a 107-win season and have performed as a top-10 team in run differential per game in their own right. Based on Fangraphs playoff odds, both of these teams have better than a 3/5 chance of making the postseason, and this should be a very exciting series.
With Max Scherzer heading to the injured list, the Mets will count on David Peterson for the time being, who is about as quality of a fill-in starter as you could hope for. In 85.2 innings since the start of 2021, the former first-round pick boasts a 4.23 SIERA and an 11% swinging-strike rate and has notably added more vertical drop to his slider this season, which should continue to lead to more effectiveness. Fangraphs Depth Chart projections have him pegged for a 3.96 ERA, and it's easy to see why.
The Giants lineup, meanwhile, will likely be without outfielder Austin Slater (137 wRC+), who left Sunday's game with a wrist injury, and first baseman Brandon Belt, who was placed on the injured list with a knee injury. That's two of their top hitters in the lineup against left-handed pitching, with the Slater injury also forcing them to dig deeper into their options.
Contrast this to the Mets, who have the fifth-highest wRC+ this season. Giants starter Alex Cobb has been quite effective this season (2.55 SIERA), but he's also facing an offense that is extremely difficult to put away (third-lowest called-strike +whiff rate), and he hasn't provided San Francisco with a lot of length this season. That may make it a game between the bullpens, where the Mets (fourth in SIERA) have a great advantage over the Giants (19th in SIERA), who also have taxed their bullpen immensely recently, while the Mets bullpen is mainly fresh after they got seven scoreless innings from Taijuan Walker on Sunday. Based on all of this, it all leads to this game being close to a coin flip, yet New York is a sizable underdog here. Simply based on expected surplus value, they may offer the most in that regard.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (+126), FanDuel Sportsbook
Extra Sports Betting Picks
Wait, there's more! If you read to the end, here are two bets that barely didn't make the cut, yet are intriguing options for Monday's slate.
Royals Moneyline (-104) at Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starter Zach Davies (projected 4.95 Fangraphs Depth Chart ERA, 96.2 pitching+) is playing a risky game with a 9.1% K-BB ratio this season, and it is hard to imagine that, based on his recent track record, his quality of contact numbers don't regress negatively eventually. These two teams are roughly equivalent in projected lineup wRC+, based on THE BAT X projections, while Royals starter Zack Greinke (101 pitching+) projects as the better pitcher. As a slight underdog here, Kansas City is worth considering.
Pirates Moneyline (-127) vs. Rockies
Fading the Rockies on the road after a long home stretch? Sign me up! Pirates starter JT Brubaker (3.88 SIERA) has quietly pitched well this season, and his current 5.50 ERA is due for significant positive regression with just a 55.6% left-on-base rate and there's a no better chance for that to start to happen than facing a Rockies team that will have to make a quick adjustment from six straight home games in higher altitude to playing on the road- this is an adjustment that historical has been difficult for them to make, and likely can be exploited by Pittsburgh here.
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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