RADIO
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! After a couple of weeks away due to new golf courses on the rotation, it is great to be back with you to discuss some course history plays for the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Last week's Wells Fargo Championship was a brutal environment, but it was genuinely refreshing to see scoring in the single digits for the week, with Max Homa taking home the title at eight-under par. Listen, any event that features Jason Day leading at the halfway point and Keegan Bradley as the 54-hole leader is at the very least interesting. I'll take it on what's been a real dry spell on the PGA Tour calendar over the last few weeks.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Overview
While last week's TPC Potomac layout provided a difficult test and an interesting change of pace, we'll likely see no such storyline this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson, a longstanding staple of the PGA Tour schedule that has shuffled venues over the last several years and undoubtedly lost a bit of its former luster over the past decade.
TPC Craig Ranch made its PGA Tour debut last year and the Nelson returns to McKinney, Texas for the second time this week. The layout proved to be a paint-by-numbers track and provided little resistance to the best players in the world, as six golfers finished last year's Nelson at 20-under par or better, with K.H. Lee nabbing his first PGA Tour victory at 25-under for the week. This layout is the textbook definition of a "birdie fest".
Lee will be back to defend this week and he'll square off against a stacked field of competitors that is bolstered by the event's close proximity to next week's PGA Championship at Southern Hills. This great field includes a trio of talented Texans (that's a lot of "t's") in Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, and Will Zalatoris, as well as a number of elite golfers such as Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, and Xander Schauffele. All told, seven of the world's top-15 players will be in action this week. Many are fine-tuning their games before 2022's second major next week at Southern Hills, which means that motivations are worth seriously considering ahead of next week's huge event.
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The Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Par 72 - 7,468 Yards, Greens: Bent, Designed By: Tom Weiskopf
After hosting two editions of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, TPC Craig Ranch moved into the big leagues last year by holding the AT&T Byron Nelson after the event's failed experiment at Trinity Forest Golf Club. A part of the TPC network, the McKinney-based course offers a dependable level of quality but provided little resistance to the PGA Tour pros in its debut last year.
When digging into the nuts and bolts of Craig Ranch, the importance of Par-5 scoring should not be underestimated, as golfers must take advantage of the four they'll see this week. Approach shots of over 200 yards spike heavily on this layout, as nearly 35% of approach shots came from 200+ in last year's edition, a percentage that dwarfs the PGA Tour average of 22.9%. Five of Craig Ranch's Par-4s measure between 450-500 yards, so a focus on players that score well on lengthy Par-4s certainly makes sense on this slate. We toss the term "birdie fest" around a lot in PGA DFS, but TPC Craig Ranch stands as the textbook definition...easy to hit fairways, generous greens, and reachable Par-5s.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent AT&T Byron Nelson Winners
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
Event Notes
- This will mark the second AT&T Byron Nelson held at TPC Craig Ranch.
- Last year's 36-hole cut line was an eye-opening six-under par.
- K.H. Lee made just three bogeys all week in last year's Nelson.
- Sam Burns set a course record with a second-round 62 last year.
The Horse
Will Zalatoris
- Course Scoring Average: 68.0
- Notable Course History: T17 (2021)
- DraftKings Price: FanDuel Price:
It seems a little simple to say that Will Zalatoris is due, but, well, he's due. The rising superstar has been knocking on the door of a victory for a large majority of his brief time on the PGA Tour but has yet to claim his maiden win.
While next week's PGA Championship layout should reward his elite ball-striking, this week's AT&T Byron Nelson also presents the 25-year-old with a nice chance to finally get in the winner's circle. It's something of a home game for the man that grew up in, and currently resides in, the Dallas area.
Zalatoris is intimately familiar with this Craig Ranch layout and in addition to the course knowledge, it is a strong statistical fit for his game. He grades out second in this field in Proximity from 200+ yards, an area that will be critical this week, as an eye-popping 34.5% of approach shots came from this range in last year's edition of the Nelson, a noticeable spike from the PGA Tour average of 22.9%.
We know that success at Craig Ranch will require the ability to go low and Willie Z should have no trouble keeping pace, as he grades out sixth in this field in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds. He rode a pair of weekend 67s to a T17 in last year's Nelson and I expect an even better result for him in this edition.
The Ponies
Scottie Scheffler
- Course Scoring Average: 69.25
- Notable Course History: T47 ('21)
- DraftKings Price: FanDuel Price:
What can I say about Scottie Scheffler that hasn't already been said over the last few months? The young Texan has been on a historical run in 2022 that's included four wins and his first major championship. The Dallas-Fort Worth native should once again be jostling for a major next week at Southern Hills, but Scheffler is so red-hot at the moment that another resume-padding win shouldn't be ruled out at TPC Craig Ranch.
His T47 in last year's Nelson doesn't exactly blow us away, but it was something of an outlier start for Scheffler, as he lost strokes both on Approach and on the greens at Craig Ranch. We can expect a sharp improvement this go-'round, as Scheffler leads this field in both SG: Par-5s and Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds, not to mention being first in SG: Total and DK Points scored.
Sam Burns
- Course Scoring Average: 66.5
- Notable Course History: 2nd ('21)
- DraftKings Price: FanDuel Price:
After firing a blistering second-round 62 last year at Craig Ranch, Sam Burns narrowly missed out on winning the Byron Nelson, ultimately settling for a second-place finish in 2o21. We haven't seen much of Burns since a playoff win at the Valspar in March - he missed the cut in his Masters debut & scored a runner-up finish in the Zurich Classic team event - but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him right back in contention on this layout that fits his game so well.
Though he's still early into his career, the LSU alum is already starting to exhibit a Bubba Watson-like tendency of repeatedly performing well on a select sub-set of courses and it will be interesting to see how he follows up last year's runner-up result at Craig Ranch. He excelled in key areas last year, leading the '21 Nelson in SG: Par-5s and finishing second for the week in Proximity from 200+ yards. We shouldn't underestimate his potent combination of elite length off the tee and putting ability.
Jhonattan Vegas
- Course Scoring Average: 67.5
- Notable Course History: T9 ('21)
- DraftKings Price: FanDuel Price:
TPC Craig Ranch appeared to be to Jhonattan Vegas' liking last year, as he spiked a T9 result in the '21 Byron Nelson. Vegas put together three sub-67 rounds at Craig Ranch and gained an impressive 6.8 strokes T2G for the week. The streaky Venezuelan heads into this year's edition with sneaky-great form. Vegas will tee it up on the heels of gaining an eye-popping 10.03 strokes on Approach last week at TPC Potomac, a mark that led the entire Wells Fargo field. He's now gained strokes T2G and on Approach in each of his last four starts, finishing inside the top-27 in all those outings. Vegas grades out fifth in this week's stout field in SG: Par-5s and 11th in Birdies or Better Gained over the same timeframe.
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