Biggest Fantasy Football Winners of NFL Draft Day Two - Breece Hall, David Bell, James Cook, Skyy Moore, Christian Watson and more

The most important rule for fantasy football is to chase talent. One way or another, the cream always rises to the top. Maybe you didn’t think it was the best landing spot when Davante Adams went to the Packers and was “stuck” behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Maybe you had concerns about Dallas Goedert because of Zach Ertz. Examples such as these are endless, but the one thing that never fails is trusting talent. Now, that said, fantasy managers shouldn’t discredit their landing spot. The landing spot matters, but talent matters more.

Still, while we all have our preconceived notions and opinions about how talented or not, a particular prospect might be, the reality is we don’t know. No one really does. We, just like NFL teams, are making educated guesses. The thing about our guesses though is they just don’t matter as much. No matter how good we might think Isaiah Spiller is, the fact of the matter is that 32 teams made 122 selections before him. That matters. It’s important to take into consideration what each player’s draft capital is. That isn’t to say a few spots should alter the opinions we had going into the draft after months of analyzing their draft portfolios, but if you thought Malik Willis was the undisputed top quarterback in this class, the draft has to change your mind.

We’re not here to talk about talent or who is the better prospect. No, that’s a horse that has been beaten for the last three months leading up to the NFL Draft. What we’re looking at doing here is identifying the biggest winners from Rounds Two and Three of the NFL Draft. We’ll be looking at the following nine players through three different lenses. The first is opportunity. If any player is going to be a fantasy football asset, they need to have the opportunity. That can certainly be earned, but it’s no doubt a lot easier when it’s just begging to be had. The second is the surrounding talent. For a receiver, this means their quarterback. For a running back, it means their quarterback and offensive line. The last is coaching and scheme. If you’re an offensive player looking to make a name for yourself, you’ll have more success under Andy Reid’s tutelage than you will under Adam Gase. Each of these factors will be graded on a scale of 1-5, with 5 being the highest.

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Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Opportunity: 5/5

There’s no denying the insane opportunity that could be Watson’s in Green Bay. Davante Adams was traded to Las Vegas and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown both left in free agency. Between the three of them, they left behind 241 targets, 158 receptions, 2,081 yards, and 14 touchdowns. The only players the Packers have added this offseason are Watson, the ghost of Sammy Watkins, and a fourth-round rookie by the name of Romeo Doubs. They’ll also return Robert Tonyan from a torn ACL.

Randall Cobb at this stage of his career is Paulie from the Rocky franchise. Aaron Rodgers is, well, he’s Rocky (obviously). The only reason Paulie gets to be anywhere near the ring is because Rocky is married to Paulie’s sister. Cobb is not an NFL receiver anymore, not really. But Rodgers likes him and Cobb makes him happy, so you know, there you go. He’ll be used in certain red zone packages, but that’s it. The Packers’ third-round selection from a year ago, Amari Rodgers, had a disastrous rookie season. He finished with eight measly targets. He was drafted to be Cobb’s protégé, but when Cobb missed five games late in the season, the coaching staff didn’t even feel comfortable putting him on the field. In fact, he even got benched a few times for muffing punts.

The last time Sammy Watkins played a full season was way back in his rookie season in 2014. Over the past five years, Watkins has averaged 39 catches for 500 yards and three touchdowns. Allen Lazard’s best NFL season, his very best, was in 2021 when he finished with 40 catches, 513 yards, and eight touchdowns. Robert Tonyan is 28-years-old and will be entering his sixth NFL season. In his previous five seasons, he has compiled 84 catches, 967 yards, and 15 touchdowns. About 65% of this production has come in one season. He’s what we call a one-hit-wonder.

If you think about a typical No. 1 receiver’s stat line, the Packers don’t have one of those. When you think about a typical No. 2 receiver’s stat line, it’s debatable if the Packers have one of those either. This depth chart is absolutely wide open and if Watson proves he can handle the jump in competition from North Dakota State to the pros, he could be in line for a heavy workload in Year One.

Surrounding Talent: 5/5

Does it really get any better than first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, three-time MVP, and the NFL’s back-to-back MVP winner, Aaron Rodgers? It does not folks. Not only that though, but the Packers also have a formidable offensive line. This is important too because Watson is an athletic freak who will likely be used down the field. He’ll need time to get open and the Packers’ offensive line has been one of the best pass-blocking units the past two seasons. Between the ample time Rodgers will have to make his reads and the quarterback slinging him the rock, Watson couldn’t ask for anything more. The combination of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will also force teams to respect the Packers’ running game.

Coaching: 5/5

Matt LaFleur is widely viewed as one of the best young coaches in the game. It's a damn travesty that someone who has gone 39–10 in his first three seasons as a head coach has not gotten more talk with regard to being the Coach of the Year. Three straight seasons of having 13 wins is not an accomplishment that happens as often as you might think. In fact, LaFleur's 39–10 record is the best record for any coach's first three seasons in the history of the NFL, so it's actually never happened before. Not before LaFleur.

In the past two seasons, the Packers have ranked no worse than 10th in points scored, total yards accused, passing touchdowns, and passing yards. No worse than 10th in any of those four categories the past two seasons. Does that have something to do with Aaron Rodgers? Sure, it does. But they didn't have those stats with Mike McCarthy in town. LaFleur's offense works very, very well.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Opportunity: 4/5

I know what y'all are thinking... what about Michael Carter? Yeah, what about him? He was solid as a rookie. I'm not going to say that Carter didn't do some nice things because he most certainly did, but Carter isn't made for a heavy workload in the NFL. There's always the possibility that he might be an outlier like an Austin Ekeler, but the likelihood of that is low. In any case, the Jets' upper management told us everything we need to know about their feelings about Hall. You don't use a high second-round pick on a running back not to give him ample touches.

Hall finished his college career with 56 total touchdowns and almost 4,000 yards rushing. He is going to get the early-down work in New York without question. At worst, Hall is likely looking at a workload split similar to the one in Washington. Hall will be given the Antonio Gibson role and Carter will be starring as J.D. McKissic. That kind of role – as we've seen with Gibson – may not equal RB1 status, but the touches are going to be there. In two seasons, Gibson has averaged just over 250 touches per season.

Fantasy managers should expect Carter and Ty Johnson to continue working on passing situations and third downs, but Hall can still finish with close to 250 touches. He's likely to have around 225 carries at season's end, which is roughly 13 per game and the reality is there's the possibility he could be closer to 15 carries per game. Even if Hall gets taken off the field on third downs, he's still likely to finish with 10–20 receptions. Either way, fantasy managers have a running back here who is likely to surpass that 250-touch threshold and that's almost a guaranteed RB2 workload.

Surrounding Talent: 3/5

This score may be too low. This offense, at least on paper, looks like it could pop. Joe Douglas has completely revamped this offensive unit in just two seasons. He's added Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Garrett Wilson at receiver. He signed Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah at tight end and we've already talked about Michael Carter and obviously, Hall. The big question about this offense will rest on second-year quarterback Zach Wilson because, at the end of the day, it is the quarterback who makes everything go. This is why I'm kind of hedging my bet here with this ranking.

There's the possibility the score is one or maybe even two spots too low. If Wilson is able to take a step forward in 2022 or maybe even a big step forward, this offense is going to be very exciting. He's got playmakers everywhere. The offensive line is also much improved.

Two years ago, they drafted a behemoth of a left tackle in the first round, Mekhi Becton. He's played okay through two seasons, but the potential is there for him to be a brick wall protecting Wilson's blindside. Last season, they drafted Alijah Vera-Tucker in the first round. They also signed Laken Tomlinson from the 49ers. He's played very well the past few years and knows the system Mike LaFleur is going to incorporate. Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if, by season's end, this 3/5 looks much too low.

Coaching: 3/5

Again, we're going to hedge our bet. The reality is we just don't know a lot about Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur yet. Last year was their first year in New York and while it wasn't a very good season record-wise, no one was expecting it to be. The roster simply was not ready to compete and they were working with a rookie quarterback who also missed about five weeks of playing time.

Saleh was widely viewed as one of the best hires last offseason and LaFleur has spent the last six years of his career under Kyle Shanahan's tutelage. Much like the surrounding talent, this ranking may end up too low by the season's end. The Jets have the look of a young, exciting team.

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks

Opportunity: 4/5

The only thing standing between Walker and over 250 touches is Rashaad Penny. The four-year veteran has played in 37 of a possible 65 regular-season games – roughly 57%. 2021 was the first season he finished with more than 100 touches. The high second-round draft capital Seattle used to draft Walker should tell us they plan to use him. In 2018, the Seahawks averaged the second-most rush attempts per game. They were third in 2019 before falling to 18th in 2020 and 26th in 2021. We all know Pete Carroll wants to run the football. He's stuck to his guns so much that he failed to properly utilize Russell Wilson's talents for years.

Pete Carroll may want to run the football more in 2022, but the question is will they be able to? Because those are two totally different things. In 2018 and 2019, the Seahawks were around 29–33 attempts per game, but that was with Wilson who could help keep drives moving. Defenses also had to honor Wilson's arm, which meant they couldn't just load up the box every play. That threat won't exist in 2022. Not with Geno Smith or Drew Lock behind center. This is still going to be a bad offense and there's potential for it to be really bad. If they're able to average 25–27 attempts per game, the expectation should be that Walker handles 55–60% of that volume.

The stretch Penny displayed to close the 2021 season will undoubtedly have earned him a role, but they likely intend to keep Penny healthy, which is something he hasn't been able to do his entire career. If Walker has 13–14 carries per game, that would still leave enough work for Penny to get 11–12. If both players stay healthy, a giant if for Penny, Walker would finish with around 230 carries and Penny would have around 196.

The only reason Walker isn't getting a 5/5 here is that he has shown us virtually zero ability to catch the ball. In three seasons in college, he secured a total of 19 catches. That's it. Breece Hall had more than that as a true freshman. You can make the excuses Michigan State didn't throw to their backs, which is fine, but we have to be able to admit it's a huge red flag. A 230-carry workload with virtually no passing involvement will leave him heavily dependent on touchdowns.

Surrounding Talent: 2/5

The only reason this isn't a 1 is that D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are still Seahawks. The quarterback play between Smith and Lock is likely to be some of the worst we see in the NFL in 2022. A Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo addition would go a long way in giving this offense some respectability, but it seems less and less likely either of those two signal-callers finds their way to Seattle.

The Seahawks did draft two offensive tackles in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft,  which does give this unit the potential to be fairly decent. Still, in Carroll's career in Seattle, the offensive line has constantly been one of the bottom-10 units in the league. The fact they added some high-priced prospects is a good thing, but expecting this unit to be transformed overnight is a bit too optimistic.

Coaching: 2/5

Pete Carroll does have a Super Bowl to his name, but over the past five seasons, the Seahawks have been trending down. Their defense has been a mediocre to bad defense in each of the last three seasons. In 2019 and 2020, they ranked in the bottom half of the league in points allowed and yards given up. Last year, they allowed the 11th-most points, but the 28th-most yards. If the defense is not able to stop anyone, which has been a concern in recent seasons, the offense will be put in a lot of negative game scripts, which is bad news for both Walker and Penny because neither of them is likely to play on passing downs.

The offense has just one season in the past five years where they finished higher than 15th in yards earned. They've been able to finish in the top-12 in points scored in 4/5 seasons almost exclusively off the arm of Russell Wilson. In the four seasons the Seahawks finished inside the top-12 in points scored, Wilson finished the season with the third, second, fifth, and second-highest TD rate among quarterbacks. Needless to say, fantasy managers should be expecting the TD rate in Seattle to drop mightily this season.

John Metchie III, Houston Texans

Opportunity: 5/5 

The Texans passed 546 times last year. 134 of those went to Brandin Cooks. I'm going to list some names for you, okay? Nico Collins, David Johnson, Danny Amendola, Chris Conley, Pharoah Brown, Chris Moore, Phillip Dorsett, Anthony Miller, and Jordan Akins. That collection of garbage combined for 289 targets last season. 289! Yes, Brandin Cooks is going to get his because he's a legit NFL talent. The rest of these guys could be out of the league in 1–2 years and I'm not even sure if that's an exaggeration.

Needless to say, Metchie has got plenty of targets to earn and a depth chart that looks quite barren behind Cooks. If Metchie is healthy by the start of the season and able to acclimate quickly to the NFL, he could find himself as the No. 2 target rather quickly. Due to his late-season torn ACL, that shouldn't be the expectation, but if he's healthy, there isn't a whole lot of competition standing in his way.

Surrounding Talent: 2/5

The offensive line actually looks decent. They'll have solid tackles in Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard and they just drafted first-round guard, Kenyon Green. Justin Britt and A.J. Cann aren't great by any means, but they're veterans who have been around the block. For the most part, this unit should be able to get the job done even if it's not in the top-10.

The problem is at quarterback and look, Davis Mills had himself a surprisingly good rookie season. A 67% completion percentage with 2,664 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 13 appearances is pretty solid, especially considering the lack of playmakers around him. His 88.8 quarterback rating is quite good for a rookie. That can all be true and at the same time, we can admit there are some obvious limitations to Mills' game and the likelihood of him being able to truly elevate this offense, even just in a way that Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins do. Mills will be good enough to keep Cooks afloat, but will he be good enough to support two receivers? That's a legitimate question. He showed potential as a rookie, but it's still not a bet that has a lot of happy endings.

Coaching: 1/5

Lovie Smith is just not it. At least not for any offensive-minded players. Smith has 11 years of head coaching experience. The table below shows where his teams have finished, offensively, in terms of points scored and yards gained.

That's about as bad as it gets. If that is not a 1/5, I'm not entirely sure what is.

Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts

Opportunity: 3/5

We know Michael Pittman Jr. is going to be the No. 1 receiver, that isn't a question. But who is the No. 2? Is there even a No. 3? Last season, the Colts attempted 516 passes, which is not a lot of volume. That much is not ideal especially when you consider just how much Pittman is going to command in Year Three. However, the Colts employed a rag-tag group of pass-catchers last season that included Zach Pascal, T.Y. Hilton, Ashton Dulin, and Parris Campbell. Jack Doyle has also since retired, although they did draft Jelani Woods to replace him. Still, between those receivers and the retirement of Doyle, there are 191 targets up for grabs, which isn't a small number by any means. If Pierce is able to separate himself from that group and solidify his role as the No. 2 receiver in this offense, there will be opportunities to be had. It's possible Pierce could find himself looking at 100 targets from Matt Ryan. That's not a terrible place to be.

Surrounding Talent: 3/5

Quenton Nelson and Jonathan Taylor are studs. Michael Pittman is very good, but after that, there are a decent number of questions surrounding the strength of this offense. They'll have a new starter at left tackle and who ends up starting at right guard can be considered undecided at this point. Matt Ryan really doesn't have anything at his disposal behind Pittman, at least not in regards to certified talent. Fantasy managers also saw Ryan struggle mightily last season. Some of that could be written off by the fact that Julio Jones was traded and Calvin Ridley missed the majority of the season due to personal reasons. He was left throwing the ball to Russell Gage and rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. However, he's 37 now and started to show signs of wearing down last season. Will the new environment rejuvenate him? That remains to be seen.

Coaching: 4/5

You have to hand it to Frank Reich and give credit where credit is due. He's been in Indianapolis for four seasons and has pretty much had a new starting quarterback each season. Somehow, he's still compiled a 37–28 record and has three seasons where his offense finished inside the top-1o in points scored and three where they finished in the upper half in terms of yards gained. To have that kind of turnover at the most important position in the entire NFL and be able to still be that successful, you must know what you're doing.

Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs

Opportunity: 2/5

There's not nearly as much opportunity in Kansas City as the fantasy community would have you believe. Yes, the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, but they also signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

The table above shows Hill's stats from 2021. Since JuJu missed the majority of 2021, the above table displays his 2020 stats. We also have MVS's stat line from 2021 where he only played 11 games. When you look at the combination between JuJu and MVS, you get fairly similar numbers to Hill. I'll admit this may not be the best way of looking at it since JuJu and MVS were on different teams, but the reality is, JuJu and MVS likely will soak up most of if not all of the volume left behind by Hill.

Fantasy managers have mostly written Mecole Hardman off, and for fantasy purposes, that makes sense, but his presence could be a thorn in Moore's side his rookie season. Hardman had 83 targets, 59 receptions, 693 yards, and two touchdowns, which is to say he was decently involved last year and finished as the Chiefs' third-best receiver. While Moore's future prospects may look bright with Smith-Schuster on a one-year deal and Hardman unlikely to resign in Kansas City, his 2022 prospects leave him fighting an uphill battle in earning enough volume to be a consistent fantasy contributor.

Surrounding Talent: 5/5

The Chiefs have arguably the best quarterback in the game with Patrick Mahomes. They completely revamped their offensive line last offseason and turned it into a strength. Travis Kelce is a top-two tight end in the league. While Smith-Schuster and MVS have their limitations, their strengths complement each other well. JuJu is an excellent short-yardage, possession-type receiver and MVS can work the deep part of the field. This offense is more equipped to handle the loss of Tyreek Hill than most may think.

Coaching: 5/5

All Andy Reid does is win. It doesn't matter who he has at quarterback, it just doesn't matter. Quite honestly if it weren't for the difference in Super Bowl victories, Reid's name might be mentioned right alongside Bill Belichick's. He has a 369–233 coaching record and is one, if not the best, offensive coach in the game today. It doesn't get any better than this.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

Opportunity: 2/5

Cook entered the 2022 NFL Draft as arguably the best pass-catching back in this class. He was electric out of the backfield at Georgia and his collegiate yard per route run average demonstrated just how valuable he was in that role. Georgia didn't just use him on dump-offs and screen passes. Cook displayed the ability to line up as a receiver and run receiver-type routes. The problem, however, is it took him three years at Georgia before he was given more than 100 carries. In four seasons, he finished his career with just 230 carries for roughly 58 carries per season. With such low rushing volume in college, it becomes almost impossible to reasonably predict him for anything more than a scat-back type of role in the pros. However, with the way the game is shifting towards offenses becoming more and more pass-heavy and the implementation of more full-PPR leagues, these types of running backs can be quite valuable without a high carry total.

The problem for Cook in Buffalo is his quarterback is Josh Allen who just hasn't shown us that he cares for dumping the ball too much. Last year, the Bills' running backs combined for just 91 targets. The year before it was just 76. The year before that, even lower – 73. That's a major red flag. If he's going to be a fantasy-relevant, he'll need to receive almost all of those targets, which is just not very likely. If Singletary signs elsewhere after this year, maybe Cook will get more run in 2023, but for this season, it's hard to see him getting the volume to be someone fantasy managers can trust in Year One.

Surrounding Talent: 5/5

While the opportunity is not great, the surrounding talent is. The Buffalo Bills have an above-average offensive line and arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. Offensive weapons such as Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, and Jamison Crowder will keep defenses plenty occupied with having to stop the passing game, which could open up some more running lanes or opportunities for Josh Allen to dump the ball off. However, as previously stated, this is just not something Allen has done in his career. If Cook is used in the slot, he could be a sneaky flex player in full-PPR leagues, but that's projecting an awful lot. Ekeler ran just 45 routes from the slot in 2021 and Kamara was at 41. Two of the best pass-catching backs in the NFL received about 2–3 routes a game from the slot. It's just not something that happens with enough regularity.

Coaching: 5/5

Sean McDermott has a 49–32 record since becoming the head coach of the Buffalo Bills. In the past two seasons, the Bills have been top-five in points scored and yards gained. When McDermott came to Buffalo, it was a losing franchise, but to his credit, he's turned this team around. That's been a combination of excellent drafting and Josh Allen's ascension, but McDermott deserves a lot of respect as well.

Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys

Opportunity: 4/5

This was a great landing spot for any receiver and Tolbert could reap the benefits. The Cowboys passed the ball 467 times last year and in the offseason, they traded away Amari Cooper and lost Cedrick Wilson to free agency. Those two players combined for 165 targets, 113 receptions, 1,467 yards, and 14 touchdowns. That's a good bit of opportunity if Tolbert can earn it. Michael Gallup wasn't healthy for the majority of last season and was able to play in just nine games. In the past two seasons prior to 2021, Gallup has averaged 109 targets, 63 receptions, 975 yards, and six touchdowns. He's proven to be a solid receiver. The question about Gallup is his health.

He tore his ACL in Week 17 of last season and the coaching staff has mentioned he may not be ready for Week 1. If that's the case, Tolbert has a very clear pathway to starting very early in his career. The Cowboys did sign James Washington from the Steelers, who was a second-round pick but was mostly phased out of the Pittsburgh offense. If Tolbert plays well during Gallup's absence, he has a chance to solidify his role and maintain regular playing time throughout the season. That's a big ask for a rookie, but the opportunity is there.

Surrounding Talent: 4/5

Dak has proven to be an excellent quarterback. While he may not be in that Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes tier – few quarterbacks are – he's certainly in the tier right below them. The offensive line has been a concern the past few seasons, but they were smart and addressed that unit early in the NFL Draft with the selection of Tyler Smith out of Tulsa. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combine to be one of the better 1–2 punches at running back and CeeDee Lamb looks to be a young receiver ready to explode. This offense has taken a step back with the loss of Cooper, but there are plenty of weapons at Dak's disposal. That's saying nothing of Dalton Schultz who had a very good season.

Coaching: 3/5

Mike McCarthy is an easy punching bag for NFL fans, but he's been a solid coach for the past two decades. Is he perfect? Absolutely not, but it could be a lot worse. He's been a head coach for 15 seasons and his offenses have finished top-10 in yards and points in 10 years. That's not too shabby. Does a lot of that credit need to go to Aaron Rodgers? Maybe, but he's been a .500 coach, has won a Super Bowl, and has routinely had a top-tier offense.

David Bell, Cleveland Browns

Opportunity: 5/5

The Browns traded for Amari Cooper this offseason, which makes him the undisputed No. 1 receiver on this roster. The No. 2 spot is completely up for grabs. Right now, it's likely a battle between Bell and Donovan Peoples-Jones. He's been in the league for two years now and has a total of 78 targets, 48 receptions, 901 yards, and five touchdowns. The competition Bell is going up against for that No. 2 is very weak.

Bell's collegiate production was that of a slam dunk first-round pick, but a terrible combine performance caused him to slide until the third round. The thing is, athletic testing really hasn't shown to have any positive correlation toward receiver success at the next level. Yes, Bell's 3.96 Relative Athletic Score (RAS) was not good. But look, Calvin Ridley was a 5.00, Jarvis Landry had a 0.27, DeAndre Hopkins was at 4.94, Davante Adams was at 6.53, Stefon Diggs was at 5.66, Diontae Johnson scored a 4.21, Antonio Brown scored a 3.85, and Tee Higgins was at 4.16. Bell showed at Purdue he knew how to play the receiver position, which is something Peoples-Jones hasn't really demonstrated in the NFL, and if we're being honest, in college either.

Bell has an easy path toward being the No. 2 receiver for the Cleveland Browns.

Surrounding Talent: 5/5

The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and this year they'll have Deshaun Watson under center. His career per-game averages across a 17-game schedule equal 4,576 yards and 33 touchdowns. He'll have Cooper drawing attention from the No. 1 cornerback and the majority of the defensive attention. Also, between Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, opposing defenses will need to respect the running game and may need to allocate additional resources into the box to stop these two great running backs. All in all, the surrounding talent in Cleveland gives Bell a ton of opportunity to be successful in Year One.

Coaching: 3/5

Kevin Stefanski has been a bit of a mixed bag since being hired by the Cleveland Browns. He has a 19–14 record in three seasons and his offenses have mostly been league average each year. They've finished, 10th, 14th, and 13th in points scored and 16th (twice) and 18th in yards gained. It hasn't been a bad start to his coaching career, but it's left a little bit to be desired.

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