X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Jarred Kelenic Still Isn't Ready for Prime Time

Seattle Mariners outfielder Jarred Kelenic is struggling in 2022 and could be a fantasy bust. Vince DiSilvio evaluates Kelenic's fantasy baseball value for redraft and dynasty.

Jarred Kelenic was one of the most exciting prospects we had seen in a long time. The hype was right up there with the likes of anybody over the last decade and fantasy managers couldn't wait to jump on him when he was called up toward the end of 2021.  But that excitement has not translated to results so far, not even close.

The 22-year-old outfielder has really struggled through his first 400 or so at-bats in the show, and it might be time to say that he just isn't ready for big-league pitching yet. I’m going to dive in and see what about Kelenic’s game has resulted in the underwhelming start to his career. Is there something easily fixable or is it just too soon for him to go up against the best in the world?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Plate Discipline

The number one reason that Kelenic (and many other young players) is struggling comes down to plate discipline. He has simply not gotten used to big-league pitching yet, and it really does show in the numbers. The 40.8 strikeout rate (first percentile) is the first thing that jumps out to me. While this is just 2022, which is a small sample size, his 2021 K% of 28.1 (11th percentile) is nothing to write home about. He is either too eager or is simply having trouble identifying pitches, which would explain his 30.9 out-of-strike zone swing percentage. Kelenic’s BB% is currently sitting at 8.5%, good for the 51st percentile in baseball, so not nearly as bad. That being said, hovering right around the league average is not what we are looking for from the former top-10 prospect. His 0.21 BB/K ratio is in the top 25 worst in MLB.

Plate discipline is the foundation for good hitting.  With a few exceptions, there are not many great hitters that don’t have good plate discipline. The strikeouts are not only bad for points leagues right now, but the rate at which Kelenic is striking out is the biggest reason why he hasn’t lived up to expectations. It’s really starting to look like he just doesn’t belong in the big leagues at the moment, and this becomes even more apparent when looking at how Kelenic fares against big-league pitching, specifically against breaking balls.

 

Breaking Balls

Kelenic has had a really tough time against breaking pitches through his first 448 plate appearances. This quick chart should give an idea of just how tough of a time it has been.

  Batting Average XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA WHIFF%
2021 .161 .185 .271 .329 .214 .251 38.4
2022 .042 .073 .042 .091 .064 .095 47.6

It’s clear that Kelenic is just overmatched by breaking pitches and opposing pitchers aren’t going to let up until he turns it around. For his MLB career, 36.2% of pitches he has seen have been breaking pitches, compared to 42.8% fastballs (only 18 more actual pitches). The batting average, slugging, wOBA, and expected stats are self-explanatory, there really isn’t much to say that isn’t said by the numbers themselves. However, the decline from 2021 to 2022 is not very encouraging as well. Hitting has been down throughout the league, sure, but that WHIFF % jump has nothing to do with altered baseballs and humidors. You’d hope to see at least a slight jump after struggling in 2021, but so far, Kelenic seems to show no improvement over the offseason.

 

Quality of Contact

So we know Kelenic has had trouble identifying big-league pitching. But what about when he does make contact? Well, his max exit velocity is 114 mph, which puts him in the top-10 in baseball. His barrel % isn’t terrible either, it's 8.3% so far in 2022, which is just above league average (54th percentile). The raw talent is there, but the consistency is not.

Kelenic’s average exit velocity is 85.2 mph, good for the 11th percentile in the league. To go with that, his hard-hit % is 30.6, good for the 17th percentile. While again this is a small sample, his hard-hit % was 39.2 in 2021, again trending in the wrong direction.

 

What to Expect

Don’t get me wrong, Jarred Kelenic is a very exciting prospect. He has great raw power and physical tools and has shown a great approach to hitting almost everywhere he has been. It’s also important to remember that he is just 22 years old. We may have gotten spoiled seeing the likes of Juan Soto and Wander Franco jump right into the big leagues and handle pitching like they always have. Not everybody is Juan Soto or Wander Franco though, and that’s okay.

Kelenic is still a big-time dynasty asset, and now is not the time to move him if you own him. When it comes to 2022, I find it hard to see a turnaround that will justify a roster spot anytime soon. He’s been used primarily against righties, only seeing 15 plate appearances against lefties so far in 2022. In those 15 appearances, he has two singles and seven strikeouts. He doesn’t get the opportunity and won’t anytime soon, especially for a Mariners team that went out and got guys like Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to compete for a playoff spot now. Don’t forget about Kyle Lewis as well. The 2020 AL Rookie of the Year will be back from an injury at some point and will be another barrier to playing time for Kelenic when he does.

Kelenic is very talented, and while his average likely won't be too high, I could still see 20 HRs and around a .700 OPS if he improves his walk rate and keeps barreling the ball. Still, that is a best-case scenario right now. Kelenic has a lot to work through, and whether that work comes in the majors or in the minors, it shouldn’t be happening as a member of your fantasy team.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jackson Merrill59 mins ago

Goes Deep After Inking Nine-Year Extension
Jrue Holiday1 hour ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 hour ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Luis Castillo1 hour ago

Finally Beats The Tigers On Wednesday
Al Horford1 hour ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Seiya Suzuki1 hour ago

Carries Cubs Offense With Two Homers, Five RBI
Kristaps Porzingis1 hour ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet2 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dennis Santana2 hours ago

Picks Up First Save Of The Year
Evan Phillips2 hours ago

Tony Gonsolin, Evan Phillips Starting Rehab Assignments
Dean Wade2 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
George Springer2 hours ago

Hits First Homer In Win Over Nationals
Alex Bregman2 hours ago

Considering Using Torpedo Bat
Trae Young2 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Freddie Freeman2 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Ozzie Albies2 hours ago

Moving To Leadoff Spot On Wednesday
Joel Embiid3 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin3 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Freddy Peralta3 hours ago

Dazzles In No-Decision Against Royals
Filip Chytil3 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Jackson Chourio3 hours ago

Picks Up Three Hits, First Homer In Extra-Innings Win
Declan Chisholm3 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Michael Harris II3 hours ago

Sitting Against Lefty On Wednesday
Keaton Wallace3 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard3 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Gunnar Henderson3 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Appearance On Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta3 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Paul Skenes3 hours ago

Wins His First Game Of The Season
Cole Ragans3 hours ago

Fans 10 In No-Decision On Wednesday
Eeli Tolvanen3 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Ketel Marte3 hours ago

Agrees To Six-Year Extension With Diamondbacks
Jaden Schwartz3 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
Iván Herrera3 hours ago

Ivan Herrera Slugs Three Homers, Drives In Six In Win Over Angels
Brayan Bello4 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Start On Sunday
5 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
5 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Ketel Marte5 hours ago

Diamondbacks Working On Extension For Ketel Marte
5 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams5 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Frankie Montas5 hours ago

Playing Catch From 60 Feet
Trea Turner5 hours ago

Returns To Wednesday's Lineup
Cleveland Browns7 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots7 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
7 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody7 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers7 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers9 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans9 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett10 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns10 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals10 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown10 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Pittsburgh Steelers11 hours ago

All Options On The Table For Steelers At Quarterback
Jordan Mason11 hours ago

To Factor Into Short-Yardage, Goal-Line Situations
Bennedict Mathurin11 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Joe Milton III11 hours ago

Patriots Have Received Multiple Trade Inquiries For Joe Milton III
Myles Turner11 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford11 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday11 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown12 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham12 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis12 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Evan Bouchard13 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel13 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko14 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson14 hours ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson14 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin14 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young18 hours ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama19 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim19 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Evan Engram20 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Caleb Williams21 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge21 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick23 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners24 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay24 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland1 day ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti1 day ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Guerschon Yabusele1 day ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter1 day ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry1 day ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud1 day ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba1 day ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Troy Terry1 day ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jonathan Marchessault1 day ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere1 day ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro1 day ago

Returns Against Predators
Olli Määttä1 day ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth1 day ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp1 day ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim1 day ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood1 day ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau1 day ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole1 day ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF