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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Muncy, like Kyle Tucker in last week’s column, is relatively undervalued. The Dodgers standout has hit at least 35 home runs with an on-base percentage of .365 or higher in each of his last three full seasons. And while he hasn’t been a threat to win a batting title, he’s hit at least .245 in each of those campaigns. At any rate, he’s someone you want on your team, especially in leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring.
Right now, Muncy is hitting .161 with (thanks in part to a 19.7% walk rate) a .338 on-base percentage in 71 plate appearances. He’s also collected a pair of home runs. But he’s also sporting a .161 BABIP, which is the most obvious sign of positive regression potentially being on the horizon. Dig deeper and you’ll see even more reasons to be optimistic about a turnaround.
Muncy’s barrel rate is right in line with what’s been the norm for him the past few seasons (it’s currently at 14.3% after finishing between 12% and 17% in each of the last four seasons). What’s more, his chase rate is actually better than it was last season at 14.1%. If that metric holds throughout the course of the season, Muncy will have lowered his chase rate in four consecutive seasons, which is notable in an age of increased strikeout totals.
What’s more, the walk rate may look unsustainable in a vacuum, but drawing walks at an elite rate is nothing new for Muncy.
Max Muncy’s Walk Rate By Season As a Dodger:
- 2018: 481 plate appearances, 16.4% walk rate
- 2019: 589 plate appearances, 15.3% walk rate
- 2020 248 plate appearances, 15.7% walk rate
- 2021: 592 plate appearances, 14.0% walk rate
Depending on how rosters in your league are constructed, I’d be comfortable trading an infielder taken in the sixth round or later as part of a deal for Muncy. Someone like Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, or Brandon Lowe. The Dodgers standout could flirt with a .400 on-base percentage and hit 30 home runs the rest of the way. And oh yeah, he’s hit fourth and fifth exclusively in the best lineup in baseball.
Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics
Speaking of walks and walk rates, Sean Murphy hasn’t drawn all that many of them so far. Through his first 75 plate appearances, he has a 4.0% walk rate. If you’re doing the math at home, that translates to just three walks so far this season. Pair that with a .232 batting average and you get a player with decidedly unexciting on-base metrics. He’s also striking out 33.3% of the time as of writing this.
But if you’re searching for catcher help, Murphy is certainly a name to keep in mind despite those metrics. In fact, those metrics might be able to help you acquire Murphy in a trade that could pay serious dividends down the line.
One of the top power-hitting options at the catcher position, the 27-year-old entered play on Tuesday with seven barrels, the second-most barrels among catchers. Only Salvador Perez has more. And while the strikeouts are unideal, Murphy has been obliterating pitches when he gets something to hit. The slugger ranks in the 79th percentile or higher in xSLG (.519, 79th percentile), hard-hit rate (51.1%, 85th), barrel rate (15.6%, 88th), and max exit velocity (114 MPH, 97th).
Once the walks start to come back – Murphy had a 17.4% walk rate in 140 plate appearances in 2020 and an 8.9% walk rate last season – he’ll have top-five fantasy catcher potential if the quality contact continues to be a constant. The catcher is also batting in the middle of the A’s lineup thanks to the departures of Matt Olson, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Matt Chapman over the winter.
Obviously, it’d be better if the A’s had an improved lineup around him, but for now, he gets more plate appearances hitting further up the lineup and if he’s traded to a better team (with a better lineup), he’ll see an uptick in RBI and (more than likely) home run opportunities given Oakland Coliseum’s cavernous nature. Sort of a win-win. Case in point, Murphy has three home runs on the season. His expected home run number would be five in nine other stadiums.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Ji-Man Choi, Tampa Bay Rays
Choi being mentioned here really has nothing to do with his production. He’s been excellent this year with a pair of home runs, a 20.8% walk rate, a .357 average, and a .491 on-base percentage in his first 53 plate appearances. It doesn’t really have anything to do with Choi’s .565 BABIP being a potential precursor of statistical regression. The slugger has always mashed against right-handed pitching. It’s nothing new.
Ji-Man Choi's Career Splits:
- Versus right-handed pitching: .256 average, .364 on-base percentage, .222 ISO
- Versus left-handed pitching: .197 average, .287 on-base percentage, .108 ISO
No, Choi’s placement in the overvalued section here has more to do with the plate appearance distribution that comes with those splits. The Rays, rightfully so, use him predominantly against right-handed pitching, with 45 of his 53 plate appearances this season coming against righties.
But that means someone else is going to get most of the starts against southpaws. So far this season, that’s been Harold Ramirez or Yandy Diaz. With Choi not playing full-time, it might be prudent to capitalize on his hot start and move him for a more consistent contributor who can help your team. That’s not to say Choi’s success won’t continue. It probably will to a degree, but your fantasy team might benefit from a similarly productive (relatively speaking) player who can add value on a more regular basis.
Madison Bumgarner, Arizona Diamondbacks
Bumgarner is sporting a sparkling 1.00 ERA through his first four starts, which may have helped boost his perceived fantasy value slightly. If you picked him up off waivers and benefited from a quality start or two, it might be time to trade the veteran. He’s just not missing enough bats at the moment.
Bumgarner has topped 8.50 strikeouts per nine innings just once since 2017, but he’s down to 6.50 strikeouts per nine frames this season, and that’s apparent in his pitch mix. Of the three pitches he utilizes with a usage rate above 10%, all three have a whiff rate south of 20%.
Madison Bumgarner’s Pitch Arsenal In 2022
- Cutter: 52% usage rate, 18.5% whiff rate
- 4-Seam Fastball: 26.8% usage rate, 17.4% whiff rate
- Curveball: 15.4% usage rate, 15.4% whiff rate
- Changeup: 4.9% usage rate, 28.6% whiff rate
- Sinker: 1.0% usage rate, 0.0% whiff rate
He sits in the 13th percentile league-wide in overall whiff rate.
Not registering a ton of strikeouts just isn’t an ideal recipe for fantasy success for a pitcher who has the following percentile rankings in terms of hard-hit rate since 2017:
- 2017: 37th (34.5%)
- 2018: 46th (35.5%)
- 2019: 10th (41.8%)
- 2020: 28th (40.4%)
- 2021: 51st (38.5%)
- 2022: 65th (34.6%)
Furthering the theme of unideal is that Bumgarner also has the unfortunate task of pitching in the National League West, which includes regular matchups with the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres and the occasional road starts at Coors Field. The veteran made nine of his 26 starts versus division opponents last season, throwing 49.2 innings combined against National League West opposition. He gave up 28 runs in those 49.2 innings while opposing batters turned in a 25.2% line drive rate against the left-hander.
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