Julio Rodriguez: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

When fantasy managers selected top prospect Julio Rodriguez at an ADP around 200 this year, they thought they were taking on a very particular type of risk. The 21-year-old was the second-ranked prospect in the game according to MLB.com and his game would translate well to fantasy with 60-grade speed and raw power. The only question was when the Seattle Mariners would feel that they had gamed his service clock enough to have him start contributing.

When the Mariners announced that Rodriguez would break camp with the team, his managers were ecstatic. Rodriguez would have been much more expensive in drafts if his availability on Opening Day was confirmed, after all. Sadly, the early results haven't been great with a .196/.274/.250 line with zero homers and six swipes.

The 21-year-old wunderkind oozes talent, but is very young and was robbed of a full year of development by the COVID-19 pandemic. A closer look at Rodriguez's MiLB numbers foreshadows some of his struggles at the major league level. All of his issues appear fixable, but it may not happen quickly enough for managers in redraft leagues. Let's talk about it.

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Elite Prospect Pedigree

We should start with all of the things that made Rodriguez an exciting option in fantasy this year to begin with. Signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic for a seven-figure signing bonus in July 2017, Rodriguez mashed at every level he went to including being named an AFL Rising Star in the Arizona Fall League last year. Scouts loved what they saw, with FanGraphs giving him a 50/60 hit tool, 55/70 game power, 60/70 raw power, and 60/50 speed before the 2022 campaign.

All of those grades are on the 20/80 scouting scale with 50 as MLB average. The first number is Rodriguez's ability right now, and it's incredible for a 21-year-old to already be at least average in all of those categories. The second incorporates future projections and is more useful in keeper and dynasty leagues. Obviously, Rodriguez looks like a stud in those formats.

Great MiLB Stats, Above-Average Peripherals

The lack of a minor league season in 2020 meant that Rodriguez had to wait until 2021 to crack the high minors, slashing .362/.461/.546 with seven long balls and 16 steals over 206 PAs for Double-A (Arkansas). His plate discipline looked fantastic with a 14.1 BB% and 18 K%, and his prorated numbers of 20 HR and 48 SB are enough to make fantasy managers salivate. Those numbers look even more impressive when you consider that Arkansas is an extreme pitcher's park with a 50 HR factor and 83 BABIP factor from 2017-19 per MiLB.com.

Unfortunately, those amazing numbers were backed by peripherals that were never going to be repeated at the highest level. Rodriguez projects for a plus BABIP as a fast player with a balanced batted ball profile, but nobody sustains a BABIP of .431. Similarly, Rodriguez struggled to elevate the ball at Arkansas with a 23.1 FB% which makes it difficult to tap into his elite raw power. Rodriguez has never posted a FB% above 34.7% (A-Level in 2019), so this lack of elevation is an ongoing issue. He has a 29 FB% for the Mariners thus far.

Rodriguez's plate discipline probably wasn't as good as his raw BB% and K% rates might suggest, either. His 12.8 SwStr% for Arkansas suggests a decent amount of swing-and-miss that would be expected to increase against MLB pitchers. Sure enough, he has a 15.9 SwStr% and 40.3 K% in his first 15 games in the Show. Likewise, Rodriguez's 9.7 BB% this season is only backed by a 32.9% chase rate. We don't know what his chase rate looked like on the farm since it isn't public information, but he doesn't deserve a double-digit walk rate just yet.

Overall, Baseball Savant's xStats say that Rodriguez has deserved a .203 average and .319 slugging percentage. Both of those are better than his actual rates, but neither is what fantasy managers or the Mariners were hoping for. This isn't bad luck but a top prospect's first taste of adversity.

Uncertain Playing Time?

The Mariners lineup is filled with outfielders with strong prospect pedigrees (Jarred Kelenic, Abraham Toro) plus big off-season acquisition Jesse Winker. Everybody can play full-time right now as long as one of them is the DH, but remember that 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis is expected back at some point. Once Lewis is in the fold, somebody's going to have to go down for everyday PAs. Since Rodriguez hasn't had his service time manipulated yet, it could be him if he's not producing.

Furthermore, Rodriguez is yet to hit higher than sixth in Seattle's batting order and usually hits seventh or eighth, slots that won't provide fantasy managers with many counting stats even if he perks up at the plate. Such a role limits Rodriguez's potential upside.

What to Do for 2022 Fantasy Baseball

Rodriguez will do better than his current line if the Mariners keep him in the lineup, but being this bad over his first 15 games has changed his outlook. At the beginning of the season, Rodriguez was projected for a .277/.341/.463 line with 22 homers by the FGDC system. At the time of writing, the same system's RoS (or Rest of Season) line is .266/.335/.432 with 17 HR. Still pretty impressive for someone so young, but not really moving the needle for fantasy squads.

Rodriguez was always an efficient base thief on the farm and his six steals to date could be huge for fantasy managers. If you're looking for power or average though, Rodriguez might need more time to harness his limitless potential. It could click tomorrow like it did for Juan Soto, or it could take a couple of seasons to put it together like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

With a Yahoo! roster rate of 69%, some managers have already moved on from Rodriguez. Bearing in mind that his physical talent could make this look foolish, Rodriguez's strikeout rate and lack of fly balls backed by MiLB data likely make him a Chump in redraft leagues this year. His elite prospect pedigree might fetch something in trade despite his slow start, so you should pursue that route if you don't plan to hold him.

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