The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 3

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

We now have a two-week sample to work with. That's still very small to base such decisions on but does provide us with a bit more context, especially when coupled with teams' lineups, platooning etc. Some starting pitchers are yet to make their third start, especially with the weather causing some early-season postponements.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone you drafted in the sixth round. As the season progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. But for now, try and stay patient. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me at Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

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Worth Close Monitoring for Dropping and Replacing

Hyun Jin Ryu - SP, Toronto Blue Jays - 53% rostered

Ryu hit the IL following his second rough outing to start the season, with 'forearm soreness'. Fearing the worst, news emerged earlier this week that he may only miss two or three starts, which puts him on track to return in early May.

Hopefully, the break will do him good as when Ryu returns to the mound, he'll be sporting a 13.50 ERA from his two starts (7.1 IP). This is coming on the back of his worst full season in MLB when he posted a 4.37 ERA, 1.22 ERA and 143 strikeouts (169.0 IP).

Despite those struggles, Ryu still managed 14-10 record. Only Kyle Hendricks reached 14 wins with a higher ERA (4.77) and he had a no-decision in both of his two starts this year. The Blue Jays offense should be potent enough to help Ryu reach double-digit wins again even if he can only repeat last year's numbers.

Verdict - The injury news is encouraging and if the forearm was an issue in his two starts, Ryu could get back to something resembling last year. He's only really rosterable in 12+ team leagues if you have an available IL spot. Shallow leagues, he's declining strikeout numbers leave him as a streaming option.

C.J. Abrams - SS, San Diego Padres - 24% rostered

The Padres prospect has struggled to start the season, hitting .118/.211/.235 with one homer, two RBI, five runs and one steal. His 20.5 K% (58th percentile) and 8.1% BB% (53rd percentile) are about average and aren't dissimilar to what he put up in Double-A last year.

It's easy to forget that Abrams has only played 76 games in the Minor Leagues, none of which have come at Triple-A. His main asset is his speed, with scouting reports grading it as 80/80. But he will need to start hitting and getting on base to best utilize it. Encouragingly, his first successful steal wasn't solely down to speed and he got a good read when setting off, something he'll need more in the Majors than the Minors.

Abrams has also hit eighth or ninth in the Padres lineup in all but one game, which will limit his upside for counting stats too. Fernando Tatis Jr. was expected to miss three months following his mid-March wrist surgery so isn't likely to return until June, leaving the door open for Abrams to remain with the Padres, assuming he can improve at the plate.

He's only started two games this week for the Padres so is looking in danger of missing out on regular playing time, furthering the concerns he won't be a viable fantasy option in the short term.

Verdict - The speed upside is tantalizing for fantasy managers and in dynasty leagues, he's still an elite prospect worth rostering. In redraft leagues, Abrams is only worth rostering in deeper leagues or if you are in desperate need of steals in the hope he's able to get on base enough to use it.

Patrick Corbin - SP, Washington Nationals - 16% rostered

After a disastrous 2021 season, fantasy managers bought back into a rebound after a Spring that saw Corbin throw 9.0 IP without allowing an earned run and striking out ten. But, the regular season hasn't started well for Corbin.

Through four starts (13.2 IP), Corbin has a 11.20 ERA, 2.56 WHIP with 11 walks and 15 strikeouts. Friday was the second time Corbin failed to get through three innings, being tagged for seven earned runs in 1.2 IP against the Giants. That was after giving up six earned runs in 2.2 IP against the Braves in his second start.

His other two outings were a pair of two-run starts against the Mets (4.0 IP) and Pirates (5.1 IP). And Corbin does have a 5.16 xERA, 4.92 xFIP and 4.80 SIERA, none of which is great but considerably better than his ERA.

Verdict - Corbin's issues have been lingering for a while, with a combined 5.50 ERA (237.1 IP) in 2020 and 2021. His K% declined in each season while his BB% increased. Corbin does have a .489 BABIP this year which won't sustain but he's barely a streaming option in even the deepest leagues.

Hold For Now

Gleyber Torres - 2B, SS, New York Yankees - 67% rostered

After sitting out Opening Day, Aaron Boone has kept his word when he said Torres will play regularly and the lineup will be rotated. He's started 11 games since then but the numbers aren't great and even with the Yankees offense scuffling along, he's not warranted being a must-start option.

Through 14 games (41 plate appearances), Torres is hitting .195/.244/.317 with one homer, three RBI, one run and no stolen bases. During the series win at Detroit, we even saw Torres trying to bunt on more than one occasion, possibly a sign of desperation, possibly just trying to help the team.

He hit a pinch-hit walk-off double in Saturday night's game, his first RBI since April 13th. Last night was also the second time in three games that Torres didn't start but he now has a three-game hitting streak.

Since his 2019 breakout year, Torres has 13 homers, 70 RBI, 68 runs and 15 stolen bases in 183 games while hitting .252/.331/.363. It's difficult to fathom how someone who hit 62 homers in his first two seasons in the Majors has struggled so much since then and there remains hope he can return to something near that level of offense.

But fantasy managers' patience is wearing thin, understandably so and Torres hasn't performed well enough to warrant rostering in shallow leagues. His 14 steals in 2021 salvaged a disappointing fantasy season but realistically, expecting 15 homers and 10 steals this year isn't much worth rostering in 10-team leagues.

Brendan Rodgers - 2B, SS, Colorado Rockies - 54% rostered

If you thought Torres was off to a bad start to the year, Rodgers 2022 has been brutal so far. It's important to not get carried away with such small sample sizes, but Rodgers' Statcast profile to begin the year is about as ugly as you will find.

So it shouldn't come as any shock that Rodgers slipped down to seventh in the Rockies lineup on Saturday. That's after starting the season hitting third. You may be forgiven for thinking it's a problem on the road and when he's playing back at Coors Field, things will turn around. But nine of his 11 appearances have been at home.

Rodgers comes into Sunday's game with the Tigers hitting .087/.157/.109 slash line and just on RBI and three runs to his name. His only extra-base hit was a double against the Phillies on Monday, which barely reached the outfield after being deflected by the shortstop. He's now 0-for-12 over his last three games.

In 146 MLB games, Rodgers has never attempted a steal so has zero upside in the speed department and while he won't be this bad all year, his numbers are generally replaceable on waivers in shallower leagues. I was high on Rodgers coming into the season but am already close to admitting defeat already.

Josh Lowe - OF, Tampa Bay Rays - 39% rostered

In trading Austin Meadows to the Tigers just prior to the season, the Rays gave Lowe a major vote of confidence and allowed fantasy managers to dream of a 20/20 player being drafted outside the top-250 (after the Meadows trade). However, a slow start has tempered expectations somewhat.

Lowe is hitting .170/.250/.277 with no homers, three RBI, six runs and one steal. In 111 games at Triple-A last year, Lowe hit .291/.381/.535 with 22 homers and 26 steals, leading to the hopes of being a 20/20 player this year.

Lowe had started this week going 5-for-16 with one double and one triple but is hitless over his last two games against the Red Sox. His triple was the second of the season and he ranks in the 80th percentile for sprint speed, so has at least been able to show off one of his fantasy tools this year.

Lowe's potential to be a 20/20 player and the fact he had a full season at Triple-A last year likely give him an advantage over some other rookie outfielders in fantasy this year. He's not someone I'd be dropping right now and as long as he's playing for the Rays, could still be in line for Rookie of the Year consideration.

On the Hot Seat

Eddie Rosario - OF, Atlanta Braves - 45% rostered

Last year's postseason hero is off to a dreadful start to 2022. In 47 plate appearances, Rosario is hitting .071/.170/.095 with no homers, no RBI, four runs and no steals. This week, he's sat twice, both times against left-handed pitching.

Slow starts aren't unusual for Rosario. Historically, April has always been his worst month statistically. Below shows his career slash line per month.

Rosario struggled in Spring Training too, so his slow start has been a continuation of that. In 30 plate appearances, Rosario hit .167/.167/.200. Normally, I don't put much credence into Spring numbers for established hitters but when that form carries into the season, it does warrant looking into.

The struggles are less concerning to me than the apparent development of him sitting versus left-handed pitching (LHP). Last year, Rosario had 412 plate appearances, with 120 coming against LHP. If the Braves do decide to sit Rosario against lefties, we could see a drop of ~20% of his total plate appearances.

Rosario had an ADP of ~173, going as the 46th outfielder so didn't require a huge amount of draft capital. But coming into this year, he's hit 27 homers and had 14 steals in 168 games over the last two seasons.

Even if Rosario doesn't run as much, he should be able to put up plenty of runs and RBI as part of the Braves lineup. I'm not ready to cut ties with Rosario yet but if the platooning continues and he's still struggling in May, he will become a cut candidate.

The Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Jesse Winker - OF, Seattle Mariners - 87% rostered

Winker is a prime example of how small samples can lie about a player's performance. Despite hitting .149/.355/.170 through 15 games, Winker is actually someone I'd be targeting as a "buy low" candidate, probably more so than any other outfielder.

Despite the poor numbers, Winker's expected stats are significantly better, leading me to believe his slow start is mainly down to bad luck. According to Statcast, Winker has a .266 xBA (63rd percentile), .477 xSLG (67th percentile) and .400 xwOBA (85th percentile).

His 15 walks rank second behind only Juan Soto and his 14.5% K% is in the 81st percentile, so in points leagues, Winker has still been contributing while fantasy managers await a turnaround in fortunes. Rather than dropping Winker, I'd encourage you to go and check if you're in one of the ~13% of leagues in which he isn't rostered and add him immediately.

Franmil Reyes - OF, Cleveland Guardians - 87% rostered

While some struggles this early in the season are difficult to work out, Reyes' slow start seems to be a bit simpler to understand. Hitting just .182/.211/.291 with two homers, five RBI, four runs and no steals through his first 13 games, pitchers appear to be deliberately throwing him fewer fastballs.

This chart shows that Reyes has seen an equal number of fastballs as breaking balls. Reyes had a .278 AVG and .377 wOBA against fastballs last year, while having a .219 AVG and .335 wOBA against breaking balls.

Reyes did hit 13 of his 30 homers off breaking balls last year so he has at least shown the ability to hit the long ball off non-fastball pitches. His two homers this year both came from fastballs.

If this trend continues and pitchers keep throwing Reyes fewer fastballs, he will have to adapt if he's going to top 30 home runs again this year. I'm certainly not backing against him but will be keeping an eye on how he performs against different pitch types in the coming weeks to see if this trend continues and whether he does make adjustments.

Joey Gallo - OF, New York Yankees - 70% rostered

Everyone should know about Gallo and the "three outcomes" he is the poster child for. This year doesn't appear to be much different. Gallo's 13.7% BB% is in the 77th percentile and 37.3% K% is in the fourth percentile. The glaring issue is he remains homerless through the first two weeks of the season.

Gallo currently has a .136 batting average but there are some reasons for optimism. His 17.4% barrel rate is in the 91st percentile and he has a .461 xSLG, considerably better than his .136 SLG. Gallo will continue to strikeout a lot, will continue to walk a lot but his average and power should get back to somewhere around 2021 numbers.

Tommy Pham - OF, Cincinnati Reds - 30% rostered

Pham was off to a slow start with his new team, going hitless through his first six games. A series against his former team, the Padres, appeared to have woken up Pham's bat as he went 5-for-12 with two homers in San Diego and has pulled his slash line up to .158/.256/.342.

He has followed that up by going hitless in the first two games of the series against the Cardinals, taking his line back down to .133/.235/.289. He's got three RBI, four runs and one steal to go along with the two homers and he's another outfielder with 20/20 potential, something he achieved in 2017 and 2019.

The Reds lineup is certainly not as potent as it has been in recent years and their 39 runs scored is the second-fewest so in MLB. But Pham has hit third in the lineup exclusively, which will always carry value in fantasy, just not as much with the Reds as it would for better teams.

I'd be looking to keep Pham on my roster for that very reason, although a 15/15 season might be more of a reasonable expectation. As long as he's hitting third in the lineup, Pham should tally a solid number of runs and RBI too, making him worthy of rostering on your fantasy lineups still.

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