Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 1

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?" - a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit, or just smoke and mirrors.

The first few days of the season have been nothing short of incredible, and there were so many exciting pitchers to choose from, so it was hard to narrow it down to just three. This week we're taking a look at three young right-handers who showed up big for their teams over the week. We'll be breaking down Tylor Megill's opening day outing against the Nationals, Kyle Wright's six scoreless against the Reds, and the MLB debut of Hunter Greene.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 4/12/22.

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Tylor Megill, New York Mets - 57% Rostered

2021 Stats: 89.2 IP, 4.52 ERA, 3.85 SIERA, 19% K-BB%

4/7 @ WSH: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Between the elite level arms of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer and established veterans Chris Bassitt and Carlos Carrasco on the roster, who might’ve guessed that relative unknown Tylor Megill would get the opening day nod. Not only did Megill take the ball for game one of 162, but he also pitched well, blanking the Nationals over five innings while striking out six. Megill showed some flashes during his rookie campaign last year, and now the big righty is off to a great start for 2022. With deGrom sidelined for an extended period, Megill will have the opportunity to claim a rotation spot, but can he provide us any fantasy value?

Originally an eighth-round pick out of Loyola Marymount, Megill works primarily with three pitches, a four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup. He throws the occasional curveball as well, but only used the pitch 2.5% of the time last season, so it’s not a significant part of his repertoire. Megill has some spice on his fastball, averaging 94.7 MPH on the heater last season and 95.9 MPH in this start, even touching 99 on the gun at one point. Of his secondary pitches, the slider really shone in this start, as Megill notched five of his 10 total swinging strikes with the pitch, good for a monster 35.7% swinging-strike rate. Megill was a big strikeout pitcher in the minors, and if that success winds up translating to the major leagues, it’ll be by way of the slider.

Megill’s slider is on the harder, sharper end of the slider spectrum, which is especially tough on right-handed batters as it bites sharply away. He had a little something extra on it in this start as well compared to last season, as he had five additional inches of drop and 1.2 additional inches of break. Let’s look at a few sliders from this start and compare them against the 2021 version of Megill to see if it looks different.

2022:

2021:

The pitcher appears to have a tad more movement to the naked eye, with a bit more loopy-ness to it this season. A scouting report by Tyler Jennings of Prospects Live noted how Megill’s slider has improved by going from a flat, fast offering with movement closer to that of a cutter, to the sweeping breaking ball we see today. Perhaps the additional movement was the next step in Megill’s evolution as a player. Megill may have pitched over his head a tad in this start, but the slider looks like a strikeout weapon, and Megill may be able to sustain a 25% strikeout rate or better with this at his disposal.

The slider racked up the whiffs for Megill, but his increased fastball velocity is also noteworthy. Megill was up 1.5 MPH on the fastball in this start compared to last year, and was firing in 98s and 99s on the gun early in the game. The increased velocity paired with a potentially improved slider should be a deadly combination if Megill can sustain these changes over time. He only generated three whiffs with his heater in this start, but Megill seemed to have better command of the pitch in this start despite the increased velocity. Here’s a heatmap comparison of his four-seamer from 2021 and 2022.

2021:

2022:

It's only one start so we can’t glean too much from this heatmap, but Megill seemed to make a concerted effort to keep the ball down. Megill’s kryptonite in 2021 was the longball as he served up a whopping 1.91 HR/9 in 18 starts, including 11 homers and a .494 SLG on his fastball, so keeping the ball down might be his key to preventing home runs this year. Modern pitching philosophy tends to favor high fastballs to produce whiffs, but Megill’s secondary offerings are good enough that he can afford to give up some swing-and-miss potential if it means allowing more favorable contact.

Altogether, there is some clear talent in this arm and it’s easy to envision Megill as an effective starter going forward. There will be bumps in the road, but Megill has the stuff to be a plus strikeout pitcher with decent control and a bit of a home run problem. With a powerful Mets lineup backing him, Megill should also be able to capitalize on wins throughout the season. He’s got a spot in the rotation at least until Jacob deGrom returns, and even when deGrom is back I think Megill will outpitch Taijuan Walker and keep a rotation spot, even if Walker is healthy. Plus, with fragile pitchers such as deGrom, Walker, and Carlos Carrasco on the roster, they’ll likely never have enough healthy arms to push Megill out. He’ll be a hot pickup, but Megill is worth one of the last spots on your pitching staff if you can afford the roster space.

Verdict:

Megill’s slider is the real deal, and it just keeps getting better and better as the years pass and he progresses. Megill also had increased fastball velocity in this outing, which will only help him rack up the whiffs with that deadly slider. He’s worth an add if you can spare the roster spot, and I’d spend roughly 5-15% of FAB on him, depending on league size and context of course.

Kyle Wright, Atlanta Braves - 30% Rostered

2021 Stats (AAA): 137 IP, 3.02 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 16.3% K-BB%

04/09 vs. CIN: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Kyle Wright earned the nickname Kyle Wrong after posting a 9.95 ERA and a nauseating 7.11 BB/9 in two starts last season, which was just the latest bump in what’s been a rocky start to his career. Prior to this start, Wright had a 6.56 ERA, 1.2 K/BB ratio, and 6.56 FIP in 70 MLB innings, and this was his first scoreless MLB appearance since September 20, 2020. Wright was a former top prospect and the fifth overall pick in the 2017 draft, so could the young right-hander finally be harnessing his talent, or is Kyle wrong again?

Wright uses a deep five-pitch arsenal to get the job done, consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, slider, and curveball. For having such a wide variety of pitches, Wright has been inconsistent with his pitch sequencing on what appears to be a start-by-start basis. Part of this may be due to Wright’s constant shuffling between the majors and minors, and rotation and bullpen, but Wright seems to have done a lot of experimenting on the mound over his short career. This start was all about that curveball, however, as Wright threw it a career-high 40.8% of the time and generated eight of his 12 whiffs with the pitch. Wright had never come close to using his curveball this frequently in a start before, and this could be the start of another shift in approach for him.

Something Wright sort of lacked as a prospect was a standout pitch. He has above-average velocity, and his slider earned some praise when he was up-and-coming, but he didn’t have a dominant offering. His curveball usage in this start is indicative of a pitch Wright intends to lean on heavily and something he views as the go-to, strikeout pitch. It does have above-average spin and movement, at least it did in this start, and Wright gained about two inches of break on the pitch compared to previous seasons. Here are a few examples of the pitch from this start.

The low-80s velocity is kind of hard for a curveball and this pitch resembles more of a slider-curveball hybrid than a traditional curveball, which is a positive if you like strikeouts as slurves tend to generate more Ks than curveballs. I wouldn’t expect Wright to use this pitch 40% of the time all season, but it would be a positive step for him to make this his primary breaking ball and use the slider and changeup – both of which have taken a beating at the major league level — as tertiary options for opposite-handed batters. Wright wasn’t a big strikeout guy in the minors but this pitch could help him maintain a K rate above 20%, something he’s been unable to do in past seasons.

Between Wright’s strong performance, former prospect pedigree, and relative availability in fantasy leagues, he’ll undoubtedly be a popular name on the waiver wire, but fantasy players should avoid blowing too many resources to acquire him. There’s a whole lot of bad in this profile that Wright hasn’t yet proven he can overcome, first and foremost being the abysmal control he’s displayed as a major leaguer. Wright has a career 14.2% walk rate, and has issued multiple walks in all but two of his major league starts, one of them being this most recent one.

One issue I have with Wright’s pitching profile is that his ceiling isn’t high enough relative to his floor. Consider pre-breakout Robbie Ray from his days with the D-backs. We knew Ray could walk the world and get smacked on any given day, but he could also go out and mow down opponents for double-digit strikeouts on any given day. The risk was substantial, but so was the reward. With Kyle Wright, it’s seemingly all risk. The start we saw Saturday, which, while great, was about as good as we’ll ever see from Wright. He doesn’t have the big strikeout upside, and it would be surprising to see him pitch beyond the fifth inning with regularity given his control and pitch efficiency issues. You aren’t going to get the big week-winning start from him, but given his previous history, Wright could certainly drop a week-losing start at any moment. This is a name I’d forgo adding unless you’re in a deep league or can afford the roster space on any old lottery ticket. Tylor Megill should be prioritized over Wright if deciding between the pair.

Verdict:

Wright has made some changes to his pitch sequencing to feature a curveball more prominently, and it paid off big time in this outing. He also gained a few ticks on the fastball compared to previous seasons, so he could be more of a strikeout threat than in years past. Still, Wright has been so bad as a major leaguer he hasn’t earned my trust with just one good start against a weak lineup like Cincinnati yet. I’d like to see how his pitch sequencing plays out over multiple starts before buying in. If you’ve got the roster space he might be worth a dice roll before it’s too late, but I wouldn’t spend more than 5-9% of FAB on him.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds - 54% Rostered

2021 Stats (AAA): 65.1 IP, 4.13 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 19.6% K-BB%

04/10 @ ATL: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Maybe the final line wasn’t as clean for Greene as it was for Wright and Megill, but there’s no denying the youngster was electric in his MLB debut on Sunday. Greene lit up the radar gun and baffled Atlanta hitters through the first three innings, and his offense gave him a six-run cushion to help Greene snag a win in his first MLB start. With such high pedigree behind this name, fantasy players are undoubtedly clamoring to add Greene and stick him in their lineups right away, but should we be so hasty, or does this arm need a little more seasoning before it’s fantasy ready?

Ranking as the Reds' top prospect and number 22 overall prospect by MLB pipeline, Greene was the second overall pick in the 2017 MLB draft, going three spots ahead of Kyle Wright. Where Wright was the polished college arm evaluators believed could be ready within a year or two, Greene was the flaming-throwing high school phenom who we knew would take some time before being major league ready. Greene works with a three-pitch arsenal consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup. The gem of the arsenal is of course the fastball, which clocked in with an average velocity of 99.7 MPH on the gun in this start, and maxed out at 101.6 MPH. Not only does Greene’s fastball have eye-popping velocity, this thing has some decent movement to it as well. He averaged an impressive 2400 RPM with his four-seamer in this outing with almost ten inches of break. A 2400 RPM spin rate would’ve put Greene in roughly the top 15% of qualified starters in 2021 in terms of fastball spin. I could probably vomit numbers at you all day to profess how good the pitch is, but lets have a look at a few from this start.

That’s just downright filthy. Imagine having to get up early for a day game, on a Sunday, three days  into the season, and having to take hacks at that cheese. The pitch looks good to the eye and measures up well on paper. There’s not much more we could want.

The movement and spin rate measureables are a great sign because many hard-throwers suffer from “straight fastball syndrome”, where they throw plenty hard, but their fastball has little movement or life to it, reducing its effective velocity and causing the pitchers to not live up to their potential. A good example of this was Michael Pineda earlier in his career. Pineda doesn’t throw all that hard anymore, but he was once a highly touted prospect because of his fastball, but never quite got the results many felt he was capable of because his fastball was straight and had a low spin rate, making it easier for batters to recognize and square up. Greene will not suffer from this issue and should get every tick out of that fastball.

The fastball is what grabs our attention, but it’s not all Greene has to his game. He also boasts an 86 MPH slider that’s pretty nasty in its own right, and he racked up five whiffs on 23 sliders in this outing. The slider is a bit on the slow side when considering his fastball velocity. When healthy and at their peak, high velocity starters like Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard had sliders that averaged over 90 MPH, but Greene’s slider is a closer to a curveball than a cutter on the slider/breaking ball spectrum. It also has decent spin with 2431 RPM in this outing, along with slightly above average movement. Here are a few examples of the slider as well.

That’s not a bad pitch to pair with this big fastball, and one could envision Greene piling up the strikeouts with his fastball-slider combo for years to come. In a perfect world, that’d be all he needs, but unfortunately his third pitch, the changeup, leaves a little something to be desired at the moment. That may hold Greene back during his rookie campaign.

Greene’s changeup is more of a show-me pitch to right-handers and his secondary offering against lefties where he doesn’t trust the slider. It’s excellent that he has a third pitch that he trusted enough in this start to use 13 times, but it’s a categorically meh offering that pales in comparison to both his fastball and slider. The lack of a solid third pitch could be a source of pain for Greene as I imagine he struggles with opposite-handed batters and potentially excessive home runs throughout the season. On the bright side, I think the Reds will let him work out his lumps in the rotation unless he’s getting tanked in every start, so this season should offer plenty of opportunities for growth. Greene is definitely worth adding when available and I’d be willing to use him against weak to middling opponents for now, but I might leave him on the bench for his next start, which comes against the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

Verdict:

All of the hype for Greene’s fastball look justified after this start, and he’s got a pretty good slider to boot. The lack of a reliable, effective third pitch will make him volatile on a start-by-start basis, so pick your spots when using him in your lineup, at least until he earns our trust with some more good outings. In two or three years Greene could be a big breakout star, but 2022 is probably a year of growth and rookie lumps for him. If it doesn’t work out as a starter, Greene would make a nasty, nasty late-game reliever.

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