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Dr. Deepak Chona breaks down injury forecasts for Chris Godwin, Odell Beckham Jr., and Robert Woods, and explains the data behind the decision to avoid them in fantasy football drafts for 2022.
It's easy to assume a player coming off a serious injury can return to form immediately once the typical recovery period is over, but that isn't always the case.
I'm Dr. Deepak Chona and I'll be giving fantasy football managers my insight on injured players all season long.
As a guy whose career revolves around returning injured athletes to sports, nobody roots harder for comebacks than I. But still, these guys just aren’t worth the draft day price tag in your fantasy leagues.
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Chris Godwin
Stud player who will likely return to stud form, but not early enough for fantasy owners. Analysts are all over the map on Godwin coming off of ACL and MCL tears in his knee. We’re seeing respected writers have him as high as WR7 and as low as WR30. So, what’s the move? Consider this:
- Godwin had surgery in January. NFL players average 10 months to return, and WRs tend to fall on the higher end of that timeline because sharp cutting and explosive jumping require the most strength from that knee. Optimistically, that’s a mid-October return to play.
- The ACL performance dip. In the SportsMedAnalytics database, Year 1 for WRs tends to be a down year, at least in their first games back. Their decreased production bounces back by Year 2 or sooner for some of the most athletically elite players. Odell Beckham Jr. was a perfect example of this before his re-tear in the Super Bowl.
Putting it together, we’re expecting Godwin’s return in mid-October, but not with full-strength results until mid-November. He certainly could be a difference-maker by the time the fantasy football playoffs roll around, but there’s no chance I’d take him over DeAndre Hopkins, Jaylen Waddle, or Jerry Jeudy. It’s even hard to justify Godwin over Brandin Cooks, Hunter Renfrow, and Diontae Johnson. For me, WR35 – over Christian Kirk and Brandon Aiyuk – is where I’d pull the trigger on Godwin.
Odell Beckham Jr.
OBJ had finally returned to his pre-ACL tear levels, even outpacing eventual MVP Cooper Kupp with 52 yards and one TD in less than one-half of the Super Bowl. But when his cleat caught the turf and his reconstructed ACL bit the dust, so too did my short-term hopes for his production.
As you might guess, ACL re-tears take WRs longer to recover from than first-time tears (13 months vs. 10 months on average). Odell’s first ACL took him 11 months to return, so we’d expect him to sit out the entirety of the coming season, despite headlines speculating an early return. The protective structures of the knee – meniscus and cartilage – both take big hits in ACL Round 2, so we tend to see shorter post-injury NFL careers and more missed games along the way. Production can bounce back to pre-injury baseline, but our algorithm predicts that happening midway through the ’23 season. Depending on league depth, he could be worth stashing in a dynasty IR spot, but I’m not sure I have the patience to hang onto a player who I wouldn’t expect to start for 1.5 years.
Robert Woods
Coming off an ACL tear, Woods is being rated ~WR30 right now. He got injured in November, meaning the 10-11 month average return timeline would put him back in the game around mid-September. He says he’s on track for mini-camp, so it sounds like he’s going to be on the aggressive side with his return. Not an uncommon mentality for a WR nearing age 30.
But will he produce? You already know that WRs tend to dip in fantasy points during Year 1 post-ACL. The SportsMedAnalytics algorithm factors in athletic metrics (combine performance), age, and time from the injury, and unfortunately it does not love the outlook for Robert Woods. His combine percentiles were ~40th, he’s up there in age for an NFL wideout, and he’s going to start the season on the early side for returning players. Not exactly lined up for success.
Add in the trade from the pass-happy Rams to the run-heavy Titans – and of course, the accompanying switch from Matthew Stafford to Ryan Tannehill – and the argument against Robert Woods starts to feel insurmountable. As a result, Woods’ ceiling isn’t enough for me to take him over the guys ranked nearby – Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Marquise Brown – and he’ll be off of my target list in pretty much all drafts this year.
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