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Hello once again everyone! We ride on over to Richmond, Virginia for the Toyota Owners 400 this week and the seventh 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Aric Almirola Over 30.5 Points. This starts as a bit of a challenge but Almirola begins tenth on Sunday at Richmond. If he stays around that position, he should finish above 31 points. He does have a fast enough car and testing indicates this is a car with potential to even move up a few spots. Almirola has two top-ten results in his last five races on the 3/4 mile track too. He has shown some spurts of brilliance in this Next-Gen car and being away from the road course this week should be a benefit. Take the over based on a lower projection.
Alex Bowman Over 46.5 Points. The reason is that 28th starting position. That is an instant springboard based on place differential alone. Bowman could make up as many as 15-20 places by the midway point of the race. The No. 48 Chevy won here just last year surprising the entire field. That was a race expected to be dominated by Martin Truex Jr. and the Joe Gibbs Racing team. That did not materialize. Bowman has been a bit more consistent this year and has shots to win several times besides his win at Las Vegas. Gamble on this and take the over based on place differential.
Brad Keselowski Over 27.5 Points. The relatively low over here is almost worth salivating over. Keselowski is back just enough ways to make place differential almost helpful. If he starts 19th, he just has to finish near the top-ten to hit the over. That may not be as difficult to do as expected. The RFK Racing driver has struggled but he can win on this Richmond track even with the Next-Gen car. It is about finding sustained speed and positioning. If the No. 6 car can do both, he will be in contention late in this race and be in a position to strike. Take the over her.e
Ryan Blaney Under 72.5 Points. The #12 driver connected on the over last week but that point total this week is sky high. Yes, there are 400 laps and Blaney could lead a ton of laps like he did in Atlanta but what if something happens? He could easily cut a tire, etc. The Team Penske driver easily took the pole for Sunday's race. Now, a problem there is that place differential could impact his prop if he drops too much. He also has to win the race and lead at least 60 laps with a good number of fastest laps to boot. That is not easy. It's doable. However, we just feel safer with the under here.
Ross Chastain Over 42.5 Points. This could prove to be tough but Chastain won at the Circuit of the Americas last week even with some issues. Now, the Trackhouse Racing driver has a third and two second-place results this season already to go with that win. He has smashed the over four straight times and a fifth is feasible. Normally, riding the wave is something we try to avoid, but the trends are favorable. Starting 8th helps in the sense that he can drop a bit if he still has to work on that pesky front suspension and driver shaft issue. Run that over.
Some other drivers to look at:
Kyle Busch (Over 51.5 points) -- The younger Busch has been fast in warmups and qualified third for Richmond while producing great acceleration in the higher-banked sections of the track. He is one of only two active drivers to finish in the top-ten in every Richmond race since 2019. Expect him to lead quite a few laps. The over is more than within reach.
Willam Byron (Over 41.5 points) -- Expect another fun week for Hendrick Motorsport Drivers. That 2nd place starting position is dicey but Byron has a fast enough car to lead some laps to offset a place differential drop. After all, the No. 24 is Mr. Consistent.
Play the NASCAR Fantasy Score Now on PrizePicks
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The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! In 2022 DFS contests, Jordan had a +33.92% profit margin good for +$10,467.06 profit and qualified for the Fantasy Racing World Championship.
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