PGA DFS Vegas Report - Spencer Aguiar's Betting Picks for the Valero Texas Open

3 years ago by Spencer Aguiar

Link copied to clipboard!

All other PGA Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @Teeoffsports to get my updated picks as the tournament progresses, and if you don't have that as one of your social media platforms, here is a link for my betting card weekly. Plays will always get updated as soon as they are placed and will include outright, head-to-head and top-20 recommendations. My free DFS column, which includes my top plays of the week and a list of options I will be fading, can be found here. And if you ever have any questions about a particular bet, player in the field or anything golf-related, be sure to contact me on Twitter.

Course Breakdown

TPC San Antonio

7,435 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded With Bent/Poa)

You can read my DraftKings article at Rotoballer to get my full breakdown of the week in front of us from a statistical perspective.

Key Stats

Weighted T2G (30%)
TPC Stats L24 Rounds (10%)
Moderate to Severe Wind L50 (7.5%)
Weighted Par-Four (15%)
Par-Five Birdie or Better (15%)
Putting 5-15 Feet (10%)
Weighted GIR (12.5%)

Options To Consider - The Valero Texas Open

Bryson DeChambeau (28/1) - I think there are a few routes we can consider at the top of the board, but it is hard for me to ignore Bryson DeChambeau for two core reasons. For starters, if the big-hitting American would have entered this event with any form to speak of whatsoever, I believe he would have been 10/1 in this watered-down field. But more importantly, a missed cut doesn't provide us any extra damage if things don't play out in the fashion I am hoping for in San Antonio. DeChambeau is the third-ranked golfer in my model when looking for pure upside, and he is the only player inside the top five that can be found at over 20/1. I'll take a shot on the potential.

K.H. Lee (80/1) - I had difficulty deciding what to do with K.H. Lee this week. My initial model believed he lacked the upside to win the event, which certainly could be accurate at the end of the day, but Lee was one of the substantial upside climbers when looking at data over just the past few months. At the end of the day, his 17th-place rank from an overall perspective was enough for me to pull the trigger, and don't forget, there is a reason the industry calls him 'TPC Lee' - beyond Nick Bretwisch, my co-host of the Bettor Golf Podcast, coining that nickname.

Sahith Theegala (80/1) - I love this 80/1 number on Sahith Theegala. The California kid grades inside the top-10 of my model in multiple areas, including placing ninth overall in my reconstructed tee-to-green stat.

Troy Merritt (100/1) - I might have gone deeper down the board than I should have with Troy Merritt, but it is hard to ignore what happens to his ranking when we increase his par-five scoring potential. My model seems to believe that placing him inside the top-50 in the field for the week would make him one of the 30 most likely names to take home the title, and I've been open with everyone that reads this piece weekly that cracking the top-30 is typically the first order of business for anyone that I want to bet. While Merritt doesn't have that on the surface during the first go-around of the sheet, it doesn't take much to get him into that territory.

Martin Laird (100/1) - See Placement Wager

C.T. Pan (125/1) - See Placement Wager

Matt Jones (130/1) - See Placement Wager

Adam Svensson (200/1) - See Placement Wager

Guido Migliozzi (350/1) - See Placement Wager

Options That Barely Missed

Jordan Spieth (14/1) - If you could have given me an extra 5-6 points, Spieth would have found his way onto my card.

Luke List (60/1) - I spent three years chasing Luke List at this tournament between 2017-2019 because my numbers believed this was one of the best set-ups for him in the world. I never found success during that timeframe, but the upside is there.

	Odds	Risk	Win
Bryson DeChambeau	28	0.285	7.98
K.H. Lee	80	0.1	8
Sahith Theegala	80	0.1	8
Troy Merritt	100	0.08	8
Martin Laird	100	0.08	8
C.T. Pan	125	0.06	7.5
Matt Jones	130	0.06	7.8
Adam Svensson	200	0.07	14
Guido Migliozzi	350	0.08	28

Top-40 Market

Kevin Streelman T40 +100 DraftKings, -120 FanDuel

I usually play most of these wagers to win around a unit. Some examples land outside the box in both directions, but I will bet this as a strong exposure play of 0.75, which does earn me a win total that is less than I would ideally expect.
First and foremost, I think Streelman was mispriced compared to his counterparts. We see options like Keegan Bradley, Adam Hadwin and Gary Woodland stretching between -135 and -145 for the same bet.
All those guys are the same likelihood of landing a top-40, and I will take my small built-in edge upfront.
Streelman has a great combination of floor, stats and course history that make him enticing, and he has provided two consecutive top-eight finishes at the venue to go along with three top-22 results over his last four starts on tour.

K.H. Lee T30 +190 Pointsbet, +170 FanDuel

We have seen TPC Lee getting steamed in all markets early in the week. On Monday, Lee opened around 100/1 at various credible books and is now as low as 55/1 at some shops to take home this title. You can find better than that if you shop around, but the South Korean rolls into the week with superb form, having posted 11-straight made cuts.
His two top-23 finishes at the property over his last two tries place him 11th in this field for overall course history in my model, and he has a 13th place safety grade when trying to locate golfers that will yield high floors.

Guido Migliozzi T40 +400 FanDuel, +250 DraftKings
T30 +600 FanDuel

One of the main reasons I like Guido is because the limited data I have on him shows the 25-year-old to be an elite talent. My model believes the Italian should be priced next to golfers such as Robert MacIntyre at around +110 for a top-40, which means a lot since everything I do revolves around value.
That doesn't suggest this is a lock to hit. Guido could easily miss the cut, but it is the fourth largest discrepancy in pricing I have ever seen on a placement wager.
For whatever it is worth, the other three all landed a top-40 in the week where I had the massive contradiction in pricing, but I love the data I have in front of me.
Guido ranks 21st overall, 19th for upside and carries an 11th-place rank in weighted tee to green compared to the field, and I do want to stress one more time that this is through minimal data, but I will trust the early math and try to take a shot for a big score.

Adam Svensson T40 +225 DraftKings, +175 FanDuel

I am at the stage with Adam Svensson that I will keep backing him until something drastically changes with either his game or his odds.
He is 17 spots better on my model in weighted tee to green versus expectation level for a random track and also ranks inside the top-20 in the field for weighted proximity and weighted GIR.
TPC San Antonio looks like a brilliant course for his skillset, and I think Svensson is playable throughout various markets because of the upside he possesses.
The +225 number is nearly 70 points higher than what I deemed as being proper, and while I won't play this nearly as aggressively as I am with Guido, I will try and take a small stance here that my numbers are better than what the casinos believe.

Martin Laird T40 +145 FanDuel, +140 DraftKings

Martin Laird’s form leaves something to be desired, but I think this is the optimal way to gain exposure to him versus playing the Scottish golfer at 12-15% on DraftKings.
The ball-striking has remained intact despite the back-to-back missed cuts, which is evident by him gaining nearly five strokes off the tee + approach over his last two starts on tour.

Matt Jones T40 +200 Draftkings, +145 FanDuel

You could argue for being more aggressive than just a top-40 since Matt Jones is one of the more volatile golfers in my model, but this is a similar situation that I just mentioned with Laird. I am willing to throw away all numbers from the Players Championship because of the crazy weather, and we have seen him find success at this tournament in the past, providing two top-30s in his last three attempts.
Jones grades well almost across the board for me and should be able to use his par-five scoring and around the green game to find success at the Valero.

C.T. Pan T40 +200 FanDuel, +140 Draftkings

C.T. Pan has never found success at TPC San Antonio, which will limit my exposure, but the raw data seems to think he eventually turns it around. Pan has gained with his irons in his past three. Around the green in eight of nine. And while the OTT numbers are worrisome, +200 is worth taking a shot.

Troy Merritt T40 +150 FanDuel, -110 DraftKings

Troy Merritt has posted back-to-back top-40s at the property to go along with two straight top-50s on tour. I think his form is in a good place, and the course seems to meet his eye.

Placement	Odds	Risk	Win
Kevin Streelman	1	0.75	0.75
K.H. Lee (T30)	1.9	0.5	0.95
Guido Migliozzi	4	0.7	2.8
Guido Migliozzi (T30)	6	0.3	1.8
Adam Svensson	2.25	0.6	1.35
Martin Laird	1.45	0.6	0.87
Matt Jones	2	0.7	1.4
C.T. Pan	2	0.5	1
Troy Merritt	1.5	0.7	1.05

Head-to-Head Play of the Week

Keegan Bradley -110 over Jason Day (Bovada)

The early-season resurgence from Day was remarkable to see, but it did come at courses he always tends to find success playing. We can point towards some positive qualities in attempting to pinpoint why Day might do better than expected, but the extra data starts to worry me that he can’t possibly maintain his level for four days.

Putting 10-15 Feet - 97th
Weighted GIR - 90th
Weighted Proximity -127th

Sahith Theegala +102 over Ryan Palmer (FanDuel)

Ryan Palmer has the upside to compete, but I am more concerned with the safety rating that places him outside the top-70 golfers in this field. Despite a free play, I will be playing this larger

Safety:
Sahith Theegala - 27th
Ryan Palmer - 74th

Exposure:

Keegan Bradley 1.30 to win 1.18
Sahith Theegala 1.30 to win 1.33

Free Matchups

Jordan Spieth -102 over Hideki Matsuyama (FanDuel)

Perhaps this is too aggressive, but I have heard rumblings that Hideki Matsuyama is still struggling with a back injury.

Round 1 Matchups

I will post it here later + inside the Round 1 article.

DFS Player Pool Options:

*** I am adding this section to the mix moving forward. Here are some of my top golfers that I am looking to build player pools around this week. You can use this list however you see fit, and please note that options are definitely not limited to this group.

Corey Conners	Jordan Spieth
Keegan Bradley	Bryson DeChambeau
Si Woo Kim	Tony Finau
Luke List	Kevin Streelman
Sahith Theegala	K.H. Lee
C.T. Pan	Martin Laird
Brendan Steele	Troy Merritt
Matthew Nesmith	Lee Westwood
Matt Jones	Ian Poulter
Small Sprinkle of Guido	Adam Svensson

2022 Premium Head-to-Head Record (1-3-0)

-1.40 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament	H2H Bet	Risk Units	W	L	T	TP	Percentage	Profit/Loss
Tournament	H2H Bet	5.20	1	3	0	4	25.00%	-2.7
API	Sergio Garcia -110 over Tommy Fleetwood	1.30		1		1		-1.3
Honda Classic	Jhonattan Vegas -115 over Mito Periera	1.30		1		1		-1.3
Genesis	Cameron Smith -115 over Viktor Hovland	1.35		1		1		-1.35
Waste Management	Keegan Bradley +100 over Pat Perez	1.25	1			1		1.25

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

15-10-2 (+3.80 Units)

Tournament	H2H Bet	Risk Units	W	L	T	TP	Percentage	Profit/Loss
Tournament	H2H Bet	30.96	15	10	2	25	60.00%	3.8
Valspar	Joel Dahmen -112 over CT Pan	1.12	1			1		1
Valspar	Jason Kokrak -118 over Gary Woodland	1.18		1		1		-1.18
Valspar	Alex Noren -120 over Jason Day	1.20	1			1		1
Valspar	Mito Periera -120 over Francesco Molianri	1.20	1			1		1
Valspar	Pat Perez -120 over Carlos Ortiz	1.20	1			1		1
Players	Daniel Berger -120 over Cameron Smith	1.20		1		1		-1.2
Players	Brendon Todd -115 over Troy Merritt	1.15		1		1		-1.15
Players	Paul Casey -110 over Gary Woodland	1.10	1			1		1
Players	Russell Henley -110 over Max Homa	1.10			1			0
API	Cam Young -120 over Tom Hoge	1.20	1			1		1
API	Sahith Theegala -110 over Andrew Putnam	1.10		1		1		-1.1
Honda Classic	Sepp Straka -127 over Dylan Frittelli	1.27	1			1		1
Genesis	Jordan Spieth -105 over Brooks Koepka	1.05	1			1		1
Genesis	Dustin Johnson -125 over Collin Morikawa	1.25		1		1		-1.25
Genesis	Rory McIlroy -115 over Collin Morikawa	1.15		1		1		-1.15
Genesis	Sahith Theegala -120 over Francesco Molinari	1.20	1			1		1
Waste Management	Luke List -115 over Tony Finau	1.15	1			1		1
Farmers Insurance	Talor Gooch -110 over Corey Conners	1.10	1			1		1
American Express	K.H. Lee -105 over Michael Thompson	1.05	1			1		1
American Express	Gary Woodland -115 over Cameron Champ	1.15			1			0
Sony	Billy Horschel +110 over Seamus Power	1.00		1		1		-1
Sony	Si Woo Kim +100 over Seamus Power	1.00		1		1		-1
Sentry	Patrick Cantlay -108 over Viktor Hovland	1.08	1			1		1
Sentry	Jon Rahm -127 over Viktor Hovland	1.27	1			1		1
Sentry	Justin Thomas -132 over Viktor Hovland	1.32	1			1		1
Sentry	Bryson DeChambeau -112 over Collin Morikawa	1.12		1		1		-1.12
Sentry	Jordan Spieth -105 over Hideki Matsuyama	1.05		1		1		-1.05

2022 Premium In-Tournament Head-to-Head Record (24-9-6)

+14.12 Units Year-To-Date From Premium In-Tournament H2H Bets

Tournament	H2H Bet	Risk Units	W	L	T	TP	Percentage	Profit/Loss
Tournament	H2H Bet	44.63	24	9	6	33	72.73%	14.12
Valspar	Adam Svensson -115 over Grayson Sigg (R4)	1.15	1			1		1
Valspar	Sahith Theegala -115 over Brice Garnett (R3)	1.15	1			1		1
Valspar	Stewart Cink -110 over Brice Garnett (R2)	1.1	1			1		1
Valspar	Aaron Wise -105 over Mackenzie Hughes (R2)	1.05		1		1		-1.05
Valspar	Aaron Wise -105 over Mackenzie Hughes (R1)	1.05	1			1		1
Valspar	Brian Harman -110 over Bernd Wiesberger (R1)	1.1	1			1		1
API	Adam Schenk -125 over Stephan Jaeger (R3)	1.25		1		1		-1.25
API	Maverick McNealy -110 over Tommy Fleetwood (R2)	1.1		1		1		-1.1
API	Cam Young -120 over Taylor Pendrith (R1)	1.2	1			1		1
API	Gary Woodland -110 over K.H. Lee (R1)	1.1			1			0
API	Ian Poulter -120 over Andrew Putnam (R1)	1.2	1			1		1
Honda Classic	Nick Taylor -120 over Kevin Tway (R2)	1.2	1			1		1
Honda Classic	Sepp Straka -115 over Vincent Whaley (R1)	1.15	1			1		1
Genesis	Rickie Fowler -115 over Harry Higgs (R4)	1.15			1			0
Genesis	Carlos Ortiz -115 over Francesco Molinari (R3)	1.15	1			1		1
Genesis	Adam Hadwin -120 over Scott Stallings (R2)	1.2		1		1		-1.2
Genesis	Paul Casey -110 over Abraham Ancer (R1)	1.1	1			1		1
Genesis	Russell Henley -110 over Corey Conners (R1)	1.1			1			0
Waste Management	Luke List -120 over Francesco Molinari (R4)	1.2		1		1		-1.2
Waste Management	Max Homa -115 over Kevin Kisner (R3)	1.15	1			1		1
Waste Management	Brooks Koepka -120 over Gary Woodland (R2)	1.2	1			1		1
Waste Management	Matthew Fitzpatrick -120 over Aaron Wise (R1)	1.2	1			1		1
Pebble Beach	Russell Knox -115 over Brendon Todd (R2)	1.15			1			0
Pebble Beach	Jason Day -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick (R1)	1.1	1			1		1
Farmers Insurance	Joaquin Niemann -110 over Billy Horschel (R3)	1.1		1		1		-1.1
Farmers Insurance	Matt Jones -110 over Hudson Swafford (R1)	1.1		1		1		-1.1
Sony	Keegan Bradley -120 over Hayden Buckley (R4)	1.2			1			0
Sony	Adam Svensson +165 over Seamus Power (R4)	0.8		1		1		-0.8
Sony	Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley (R3)	1.18	1			1		1
Sony	Corey Conners -125 over Seamus Power (R2)	1.25	1			1		1
Sony	Keegan Bradley -110 over Harry Higgs (R2)	1.1	1			1		1
Sony	Michael Thompson +112 over Erik Van Rooyen (R1)	1	1			1		1.12
Sony	Keegan Bradley -115 over Harry Higgs (R1)	1			1			0
Sentry	Abraham Ancer -145 over Branden Grace (R4)	1.45		1		1		-1.45
Sentry	Sungjae Im -115 over Hideki Matsuyama (R3)	1.15	1			1		1
Sentry	Marc Leishman -130 over Lucas Herbert (R2)	1.3	1			1		1
Sentry	Lucas Herbert -115 over Matt Jones (R1)	1.15	1			1		1
Sentry	Patrick Cantlay -135 over Harris English (R1)	1.35	1			1		1
Sentry	Brooks Koepka +125 over Viktor Hovland (R1)	1	1			1		1.25

2022 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player	Event	Odds	Finish Position
Scottie Scheffler	Waste Management	30	1
Joaquin Niemann	Genesis Invitational	75	1
Jordan Spieth	Pebble Beach	22	2
Viktor Hovland	Arnold Palmer	18	2
Jason Day	Farmers Insurance	110	3
Xander Schauffele	Waste Management	16	3
Corey Conners	Match Play	Rollover	3
Daniel Berger	Honda Classic	16	4
Brooks Koepka	Match Play	Rollover	5
Billy Horschel	Waste Management	66	6
Justin Thomas	Genesis Invitational	16	6
Chris Kirk	Honda Classic	70	7
Tyrrell Hatton	Match Play	Rollover	9
Keith Mitchell	Waste Management	110	10

Yearly Record

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.03 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won (+54.26) 194.24% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.64 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won (+55.88) 51.70% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

2020 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (13-14-2) -1.46 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open (33/1)
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship (30/1)
Sungjae Im Honda Classic (35/1)
Patrick Reed WGC-Mexico (50/1)
Cameron Smith Sony Open (55/1)
Overall Units Won (+37.015) 20.21% ROI

2021 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (17-13-1) +1.97 Units
Outright Winners (10)
Daniel Berger Pebble Beach (18/1)
Max Homa Genesis Invitational (66/1)
Justin Thomas Players Championship (22/1)
Billy Horschel Match Play (150/1)
Cameron Davis Rocket Mortgage (150/1)
Seamus Power Barbasol Championship (20/1)
Kevin Kisner Wyndham Championship (40/1)
Tony Finau Northern Trust (60/1)
Patrick Cantlay BMW Championship (25/1)
Rory McIlroy CJ Cup (20/1)
Overall Units Won (+68.846) 14.22% ROI

Career Record (Excluding 2022 Season Results)

Premium Head to Head Bets (93-55-9) +43.66 Units
Free Head to Head Bets (81-88-9) -4.82 Units
In-Tournament Head to Head Bets (125-82-22) +26.27 Units
Outright Winners (30)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
2020 - 19
2021 - 32
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
2020 - 41
2021 - 60

Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.