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Hello once again everyone! We ride on down to Austin, Texas for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix this week and the sixth 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Tyler Reddick Over 32.5 Points. This starts rough from the beginning. However, Reddick has been gaining speed the past few weeks and this week, he excelled even on the hated road course. The feeling is his Chevy just can move it much like Ross Chastain's car. All that is basically needed is a couple of led laps and a top-eight finish. That is not unreasonable here. Yes, based on point differential, eighth nets 36 points minus four for the differential. Add in two led laps and one fastest lap and bingo! Ride the over here.
A.J. Allmendinger Over 42.5 Points. The reason is the 20th starting position. That is an instant springboard based on place differential alone. Allmendinger can easily make up 10-15 spots on this course. Look at what he did in Indianapolis last year. He can manage the bumps and the curves better than almost anyone in this field. Plus, he has the race car set up more for Raceday than qualifying. The Kaulig Racing driver may need one or two long runs but that should occur on this 3.426-mile 20-turn monster. Take the over on Sunday.
Kurt Busch Over 27.5 Points. The relatively low over here is appetizing. The elder Busch and his Toyota should not fall too far down the standings and he can lurk around the top ten. Tenth pretty much guarantees the over hitting and by a decent margin. After all, the No. 45 car qualified 11th. Now, Denny Hamlin would be an interesting under to consider here. Arguably, even Chase Elliott's under may be worth it too (54.5 points seems too high). However, Kurt Busch is just one of those drivers who can scramble on a road course. Take the over.
Ryan Blaney Under 36.5 Points. The #12 driver had us in the money last week until the last run of laps. It was that big drop in place differential that hurt. As much as we would like to say bias does not play a role here, it does. The concern is there again with Ryan Blaney on the pole this time. All the "top contenders" are in the teens and if the positions swap, here we go once more. Place differential has saved us a good deal this year but did not for the Team Penske driver in Atlanta. This has risk the other way for fear that Blaney manages to stay in the top-ten. Take the under anyhow.
Ross Chastain Over 39.5 Points. This could prove to be tough but Chastain had one of the fastest cars at the Circuit of the Americas last year. Why couldn't he do it once again? After all, the Trackhouse Racing driver has a third and two second-place results this season already. He has smashed the over three straight times and a fourth is more possible than ever now. Normally, riding the wave is something we try to avoid, but the trends are favorable. Starting 20th helps place differential which is worth one point for every spot he moves up. If he hits the top ten somehow, that's a win.
Some other drivers to look at:
Daniel Suarez (Over 28.5 points) -- Suarez has been pretty fast all week and he can drive well on road courses in the Next-Gen car. He did finish fourth at Fontana and with a little luck would have easily been in the top three. This is worth taking a risk and looking to the over. Place differential will also make this one quite close. He needs to lead a few laps.
Willam Byron (Over 43.5 points) -- Expect a fun week for Hendrick Motorsport Drivers not named Chase Elliott. That 24th place starting position may be good enough to gain some extra points as Byron roars up the field. He was right with guys like Larson and Elliott last year at Austin.
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NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
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The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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