RADIO
Hello once again everyone! We head to the Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 this week and the fifth 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Joey Logano Under 37.5 Points. This is not a spot of strength necessarily but Logano starts in the top-five. Will he stay anywhere near there? Tracks like Daytona have not always been kind to Logano and Atlanta has been especially rough. This configuration may be as well. Expect him to learn from his mistake and take the under. The concern is that he has been fast this weekend (top-five lap averages). Now, his times did start to drop a good bit after the 20-lap interval. There is a risk here but the under is appetizing on Sunday with other Ford's on our radar.
Austin Cindric over 32.5 Points. The risk with the rookie is high. He has hit three of four times already and the cash was too easy. Even with starting 16th, this is worth a try. He only has to finish around the top-ten and maybe set a few fast laps. His performance at Daytona buoys the thought process a bit. Cindric and Ryan Blaney could be a good 1-2 along with Joey Logano early. The lower point total helps Cindric here. It would not be a surprise to even see Cindric lead a few laps. Take the over.
Denny Hamlin Over 42.5 Points. The dicey nature of this one is fun. Hamlin could lead some laps here but can this Joe Gibbs Racing come close to winning Sunday? If that answer is yes then Hamlin should top 42.5 points. Hamlin does not have to win though that would be a bonus. A top-five finish is possible (eighth fastest practice lap) and his loop data at Daytona combined with Atlanta know-how bode well on Sunday. Utilize the over to profit.
Ryan Blaney Over 34.5 Points. The #12 driver starts second this week and looked good at times in practice too. This is where it gets interesting. Blaney has performed well every time at Atlanta in what feels like forever. Even the reconfiguration may not affect that too much. His Ford is FAST! Blaney was tenth fastest when it came to lap averages and those numbers got better as Saturday afternoon wore on. Blaney benefits from starting at the front and honestly the 34.5 points feels like a free square just waiting to happen. Take the over!
Brad Keselowski Under 40.5 Points. This could blow up in our faces. The RFK Racing driver has to contend from the middle of the field (starts 24th). That is not uncommon here. It happens in NASCAR. However, he has to finish around the top-ten and lead a few laps too. That is asking a lot. There are 325 laps (maybe more) but again could there be a lot of lead changes? Absolutely. The bigger question is can Keslelowski stay up front without wrecking or taking hits in position. It does seem that answer is no based on loop data (11th overall lap average but 34th in practice). Take the under again.
Some other drivers to look at:
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Under 46.5 points) -- Stenhouse Jr. has been lightning fast in testing and on Saturday but can he keep the car on the track Sunday? He has to net a top-ten finish with quite a few fastest laps along the way. That may be a bit of a tough task given his less than stellar outputs at times. Will the wreck get him this week?
Willam Byron (under 38.5 points) -- Expect a bit of a tough week for Hendrick Motorsport Drivers not named Chase Elliott. Even Elliott is not a lock. However, Byron may be. Him and Alex Bowman have had little success on tracks like this. The Atlanta behemoth feels a little like Daytona and we will side with the under this week.
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