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Kyle Lindemann examines the fantasy football impact of QB Deshaun Watson being traded to the Cleveland Browns.
As if NFL fans everywhere didn't have enough highs and lows during the first week of free agency, out of nowhere Deshaun Watson waived his no-trade clause late on Friday afternoon and was sent to the Cleveland Browns for three first-round picks, a 2023 third-round pick, and a 2024 fourth-rounder.
When I first saw Adam Schefter's tweet, I thought he had been hacked or that it was a fake account. Once Ian Rapoport confirmed seconds later, I couldn't believe my eyes. Watson had previously told the Browns and the Panthers no in their pursuit of him and had narrowed down his choices to either the Falcons or Saints. After negotiations with the Falcons stalled out over guaranteeing the second-half of Watson's new contract, the Browns and GM Andrew Berry swooped in and made Watson an offer he couldn't refuse, giving him a new five-year, fully-guaranteed contract for $230 million, which set the new NFL record for most guaranteed money.
Regardless of your fandom or personal beliefs, this has a huge ripple effect on the NFL landscape and fantasy football. Let's break down all the details and see what it means for Watson's fantasy value as well as his new teammates.
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How It All Went Down
Watson had demanded a trade from the Houston Texans and sat out the 2021 season after 22 different women came forward with sexual assault allegations against him. While no charges were officially filed, many fans and members of the media let their outrage be known after the Browns upped the ante to get him. At this time, civil suits are still pending, as well as a possible 4-6 game suspension from the NFL.
As an NFL fan with a daughter of my own, I understand the outrage. We live in a time when people are demanding more social responsibility from the organizations, companies, and businesses that they support. While in no way do I condone what Watson did, the truth is nobody knows for sure what happened, and I don't think it is fair to speak about the situation in pure absolutes. That's not to say anyone doesn't deserve to be outraged or needs time to process all of this. The sad reality is there are no easy answers.
Steelers fans had no problem rooting for Ben Roethlisberger, Ravens fans supported Ray Lewis, and Bengals fans did the same with Joe Mixon even after all three of them were accused of doing some horrible things. To some degree, all NFL fans are guilty, but if you are expecting a billion-dollar industry to act as a moral pillar of society, then you've got another thing coming.
Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield is now likely to be traded to a team like the Colts or Seahawks. Mayfield does deserve a measure of credit for leading the Browns out of the depths of 0-16 and making them into a relevant franchise when they had been anything but in the prior two decades. Unlike most players, Baker embraced the challenge of going number one overall to the Browns. Similar to a hard-working visionary who launches a startup out of his garage and grows it into something successful, the Browns had clearly plateaued with Baker against the rest of the elite QB competition in the AFC. Now the company has been sold and there's a new CEO who is coming in to take the Browns to the promised land.
Deshaun Watson, still a QB1?
While Watson was largely undrafted or taken late in redrafts in 2021, he is now vaulted to the top of my QB rankings for 2022. While there is a chance he may be suspended roughly four to six games for the upcoming season, he is back in the QB4 to QB6 range with only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert ahead of him in my rankings. Being that we haven't seen Watson play in a while, it's easy to forget just how elite he really is.
Many will criticize Watson by saying he only has a career record of 28-25 so far, but the Houston Texans teams he was on previously were not great. Head Coach Bill O'Brien was fired after making some terrible coaching decisions and trades which left Watson devoid of much of a supporting cast and offensive line, where he was sacked 155 times from 2018-20. That's an average of 51.66 sacks per season! While the Browns are not on the same level as the Rams yet, many were critical of Matthew Stafford during his time with the Lions by saying he wasn't a winner. Once he was traded to a better team, the narrative completely flipped and it was apparent to all just how good Stafford really is.
Watson is a mobile quarterback who can provide a degree of rushing upside, as he averaged 469 yards on the ground and five touchdowns over the 2018-20 period. This rushing upside immediately provides him with a relatively high floor as he averages five fantasy points per game from rushing alone. Just looking at Watson's past fantasy production, it's easy to see that he is an elite performer as he finished as the QB5 for 2020, QB5 for 2019, and QB4 for 2018. His rookie reason in 2017 was cut short due to an ACL injury.
Supporting Cast
While I am not ready to herald the Browns as the AFC favorites just yet, Watson's supporting cast is much better than what he had in Houston.
RBs: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, D'Ernest Johnson
WRs: Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Anthony Schwartz, Jakeem Grant
TEs: David Njoku, Harrison Bryant
LT: Jedrick Wills, LG: Joel Bitonio, C: Nick Harris, RG: Wyatt Teller, RT: Jack Conklin
Nick Chubb is the purest runner in the NFL. The way he moves with so much power and vision is exciting to watch. He hasn't been able to perform at a top-five level for fantasy due to Kareem Hunt being there and his lack of usage in the passing game, but Chubb can get close to a top-five finish this year with the added touches that he should see in the goal line. If Hunt is traded or released, he immediately belongs in the top-three RB consideration.
While the Browns' WR corps needs some work, Cooper is a borderline WR1 for the upcoming season. The Browns also have their second-round pick (44), two thirds (78, 99), and two fourths (107, 118) to add to the corps and I am expecting them to draft another wide receiver in this deep class or sign a guy like Will Fuller in free agency as well. Mayfield is likely traded soon for a second-round pick, which gives the Browns back some of their draft capital.
David Njoku has flashed an elite ability to separate as a tight end in the NFL, but he hasn't been able to put it all together. He had Austin Hooper cutting into his playing time the last two seasons and has suffered from some bad drops. While Harrison Bryant may see plenty of snaps, the breakout potential for Njoku in 2022 is there now that he has gotten a pure upgrade at quarterback.
The offensive line as you can see is light years ahead of anything that Watson had in Houston, which should give him more time to throw and keep him upright. Bitonio and Teller are the best combo of guards in the league. Left tackle Jedrick Wills was taken 10th overall in 2020. He has struggled a bit at times to stay on the field but should have no problem at all protecting Watson's blindside. It is also important to note that Watson led the league in passing yards for 2020.
Future Outlook
Landing a franchise quarterback is hard to do in the NFL and the Browns had been chasing one for decades. While the way they went about courting Watson in a manner that absolves him of any financial penalties is difficult for many fans to stomach, the reality is if it weren't the Browns, somebody else was going to do the same. Watson belongs as a top-five QB in all formats going forward, but do keep an eye on his civil suits and potential suspension for part of 2022. As a fantasy community, it is important that we be respectful of the thoughts, feelings, and attitudes of others as they work through dealing with the Watson situation in their own way.
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