Ryan Kirksey's Bold Predictions for 2024 Fantasy Football

It's Bold Predictions SZN in the fantasy football world as we approach the 2024 season. Everywhere you turn, there is another hot take on social media or a new piece of content blasting out hot takes on who will be the next Puka Nacua or Sam LaPorta. Just what is a bold prediction, exactly?

Is it something likely to happen? No, that would make it a bland prediction. Alternatively, is it so hot-take-spicy that it's completely outside the realm of possibility? Likely not (those are blazing predictions). Bold predictions are within the range of outcomes for a player, assuming they reach their 95th percentile in all of luck, health, team context, and performance.

This piece will throw darts at some bold predictions that could happen if certain things break right for the players below. Covering each position (quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end), these predictions represent unlikely outcomes, but also bold takes based on facts.

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1. Joe Burrow throws 45 touchdown passes

Forty-five touchdown passes for Joe Burrow not only represent a bold prediction for the player but also for the NFL. The league hasn't seen a quarterback throw for 45 or more touchdowns since Aaron Rodgers in 2020 (48) and it's only happened twice in the last 11 seasons.

However, considering Burrow's past touchdown success (36 in 2022), RotoBaller's projections for the Bengals' passing game (36), and the lack of a true alpha running back, why can't the Bengals unleash a newly healthy Burrow to sling it through the air to his stable of high-powered and elite receivers?

Joe Burrow → Tee Higgins 🔥pic.twitter.com/sSTkBKMNEs

— NFL Brasil (@NFLBrasil) August 20, 2024

Last season, the Bengals finished the year second in Pass Rate Over Expectation (+6.0%). That was with a strong running back like Joe Mixon in the backfield. Now, the Bengals are going to go to battle with career backup Zack Moss and second-year back Chase Brown. Between them, they have seven rushing touchdowns since the beginning of 2022.

Ja'Marr Chase is healthy, Tee Higgins wants to get paid, and rookie Jermaine Burton caught eight touchdowns in just 39 receptions at Alabama last year.

When Burrow and his receivers were healthy, he threw for 2.1 touchdowns per game in 2022 and had a 68% completion rate. Bump that up to 2.5 per game with a 70% completion rate (which he accomplished in 2021), and Burrow is all of a sudden leading the league in touchdown passes in 2024.

2. Khalil Shakir finishes as the WR14 in PPR formats

Maybe you heard, but the Buffalo Bills are missing some wide receivers from 2023. With Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Deonte Harty all gone from the team, the Bills are entering 2024 with 317 vacated targets, the second most in the NFL.

Yes, they brought in Curtis Samuel. Yes, they drafted Keon Coleman. But Khalil Shakir is about to step into the Diggs role and lead this team in receiving.

Let's start with the competition. I would feel comfortable giving Dalton Kincaid another 30 targets this year (pushing him up to around 120 for 2024).

I see the Bills using Samuel as the Carolina Panthers did. Let's call it 100 targets and 40 rush attempts. Keon Coleman likely draws 90-100 targets as a rookie. And if you still think Marquez Valdes-Scantling has anything left, it's time to seek help.

Khalil Shakir may not be listed as such but he is the #Bills WR1. He is going to become a household name in 2024.#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/XkXcmfjY0f

— Thomas DeLaus (@TheThomasDeLaus) August 20, 2024

That leaves around 80-90 unclaimed targets for 2024. A few of those will trickle to running backs, but Shakir seeing 125 targets in 2024 is well within his range of possibilities. Shakir caught 73.3% of his targets last season (highest on the team) and was No. 1 in the entire NFL in yards per target (13.6).

Shakir had the 13th-most snaps out of the slot last season despite being a part-time player. Give him a full-time role, a whole season with Josh Allen as his quarterback, and only marginal target competition, and this is a bona fide breakout year for Shakir.

3. Dyami Brown is second in targets for Washington and finishes as a top-36 WR

There's a way to make a simple argument for this bold take. It's broken down into three steps.

First, Dyami Brown is taking over the Curtis Samuel role for the Washington Commanders. Second, Samuel finished 44th in fantasy points among wide receivers last year. Third, the Commanders make significant upgrades at quarterback and offensive line, so the offense is going to take a couple of steps forward.

Not convinced yet? Let's dive in further. Samuel missed most of three games with injuries last season, so he could have easily jumped into a top-36 wide receiver had he been healthy. With Samuel gone, Dyami Brown is battling Jahan Dotson for the WR2 role in this offense, and Dotson is not having a good training camp or preseason.

Dyami Brown showing another element to his game! #RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/nz3wakoj66

— The Podfather (@TheBurgundyZone) August 17, 2024

In the Commanders' first preseason game, Brown led all starters in receiving yards. In their second preseason game, Brown saw as many targets as Terry McLaurin. The reports out of camp have been glowing for Brown and the brass in Washington is going to give new franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels all the snaps he wants with his favorite guys.

Ben Sinnott and Zach Ertz figure to split reps and targets, so they shouldn't endanger Brown, who could play on 70% of offensive snaps. Last year, the WR36 in half-PPR formats scored exactly 10 fantasy points per game.

That is well within the range of outcomes for Brown considering the step up the offense should take and the shootout potential in their games with that atrocious Washington defense.

4. Zamir White finishes as the RB6 in half-PPR formats

Zamir White takes over as a no-doubt-about-it bell-cow running back in Las Vegas where Antonio Pierce wants to establish the run like it has never been established before.

I have seen the hand-wringing over the split usage between Zamir White and Alexander Mattison in the preseason, and I'm here to tell you. I. Don't. Care. We realize the preseason games are for getting players reps, right? When given the chance, White proved he can be a workhorse and that's exactly what he will be.

When Josh Jacobs was out with an injury at the end of 2023, White crushed it. Over Weeks 15-18 (AKA the fantasy playoffs), White was first in rushing attempts, third in rushing yards, sixth in rushing yards before contact, and fifth in broken tackles. He was the RB8 in half-PPR formats after securing 85, 145, 106, and 121 yards in those four games.

2024 PRESEASON - WK 2 [CLIPS]
Zamir White is going to be the horse for this offense as he goes for 17 yds here!#Raiders #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/q4saowXD4u

— RAIDER CLASSICS (@RaiderClassics) August 20, 2024

It should not be forgotten that those games all came while the Raiders were still trying to grab a Wild Card spot. This wasn't a season is over, let's-see-what-the-kid-can-do role. This is exactly how Coach Pierce wanted it and is exactly how it will be in 2024.

In full PPR formats, I can see how other backs will jump over him with receptions. But White did have 13 targets in those four important weeks last year, so he is far from a zero in that category. Gardner Minshew II is also a nice story, but not a great quarterback. The Raiders want to run, and White is going to carry the Silver and Black this year.

5. Tyjae Spears scores twice as many fantasy points as Tony Pollard

After Week 2 in 2023, it took a full 10 weeks of games before we saw anything like the Tony Pollard who was drafted in the first or second round last summer. Pollard scored 38 fantasy points in his first two games and then proceeded to score just 76 points in his next eight games. Pollard looked washed and there were many theories why.

Could he not handle a full workload? Was CeeDee Lamb getting all the high-value touches? Does Pollard prefer outside plays to inside the tackle runs? Did he fall off an age cliff? Whatever the reason, Dallas gave him a Texas-sized boot and he landed in Tennessee after Derrick Henry was let go from the Titans.

For about a day, there was much rejoicing that a hyper-efficient running back might get a lead role with the Titans, but Pollard threw a wrench in those plans. Are we destined for a split backfield here? Whatever ends up being the plan at the beginning of the season, the way I read it, Spears is going to dominate this backfield and the fantasy value.

95 seconds of Tyjae Spears making dudes miss pic.twitter.com/qw26A2eyG1

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 15, 2024

As a rookie, Spears was fifth in breakaway run rate (Pollard was 25th). Spears was sixth in yards per touch (Pollard was 44th). Spears was seventh in target share (Pollard was 20th). And on the non-fantasy side, Spears was 11th in run-blocking rating (Pollard 43rd). That stuff matters.

Head coaches don't care about making sure everyone gets a chance to play. They care about putting the right players on the field who will help them win games and improve their team in various aspects. Whether new coach Brian Callahan is planning on this or not, Spears is going to separate himself from Pollard early and never look back.

6. Evan Engram is the overall TE1

Is this even that bold a prediction? Let's check the tape. Travis Kelce: awesome but old. Sam LaPorta: best season ever by a rookie tight end and we are expecting him to be better? Mark Andrews: oft-injured. George Kittle: Ditto. Trey McBride: now competing with Marvin Harrison Jr. for the top pass-catcher role.

Guess what? Evan Engram had 20 MORE TARGETS than any of those guys in 2023.

Engram's 143 targets were far and away the most among tight ends. He was the only tight end in the top 20 of all NFL players in 2023. He saw fewer than six targets in a game just one time in 2023. Engram is Trevor Lawrence's favorite weapon, and now another alpha in Calvin Ridley is out of the equation.

Engram was second in total fantasy points and sixth in fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats last year. What will it take for him to get to No. 1 in fantasy points per game? Truthfully, the answer lies with better luck.

Evan Engram finished with the 2nd most TE receptions (114) in NFL history and led all TEs with 143 Targets.

Jacksonville has the 5th most vacated targets in the NFL. Hard to project Engram as anything but a target hog in 2024.

An all formats target 🎯 pic.twitter.com/LyRXVBLUTR

— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) May 26, 2024

Engram's target share (23.8%) was second at the position. He was 12th in target separation, 10th in true catch rate, and second in yards after the catch. However, with eight drops, he had the most among tight ends. Those eight drops are likely fluky and cost him the most overall points by a tight end in 2023.

Now with Ridley gone and Lawrence hopefully taking a step up this year, Engram could reach that ultimate level. Currently falling into the eighth round in many drafts, he might be the best value on the board at the tight-end position.

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