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With the NFL season right around the corner, many fantasy football predictions are being flung about. Many of these takes are reasonably similar to the consensus, but some are eyebrow-raising and controversy-inducing. These takes are the ones that spawn the greatest fantasy football columns each year: the bold predictions articles.
Most bold predictions do not hit. Indeed, many fail miserably. This is the nature of bold predictions, though, and it is exactly why getting them right is so fulfilling. Anyone can tell you that Christian McCaffrey is likely to fare well again in 2024. If Dyami Brown breaks out, though? That would be a more rewarding prediction to nail.
Below are six bold predictions for the upcoming fantasy football season. Some are bolder than others, but all should provide both entertainment and insight ahead of fantasy drafts. Without further ado, let's kick things off with a third-year wideout awaiting a breakthrough.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
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- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
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1. Jameson Williams finishes as a top-20 WR
The Lions invested a high draft pick on Jameson Williams in 2022, taking him 12th overall. Unfortunately, a torn ACL in the College Football Playoff National Championship game meant he missed most of his rookie season. He went on to catch just one of nine targets for 41 yards and a score in his first year in the league.
Williams then had his 2023 season stunted by a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's gambling policy. The young wideout wound up playing 12 games, catching 24 of 41 targets for 354 yards and two touchdowns.
Now in 2024, Williams will need to have his breakout campaign. He should have no shortage of chances, as the Lions are a bit thin on receiving options. While WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta both finished in the top-5 in targets at their positions in 2023, other weapons like Kalif Raymond and Daurice Fountain do not inspire confidence.
Williams should have an easy time carving out a lucrative role. St. Brown had an aDOT of 7.9 yards last year, and LaPorta's was 7.1. Williams, on the other hand, had an aDOT of 15.6. He will be the vertical threat for quarterback Jared Goff.
Considering the Lions ranked second in passing yards and fourth in passing TDs a year ago, there will be plenty of fantasy points for Williams to seize. He will earn them in chunks, as he has shown already.
Goff does DEEP to Jameson Williams for the 45-yard TD!
📺: #DETvsTB on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/B4mQvLOt8O pic.twitter.com/7SnwzpjmbM— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023
Williams improving as the 2023 season progressed also helps his case. Indeed, his two highest snap shares and route participation rates came in the playoffs. His home run ability was on display in the NFC Championship Game when he ran for a 42-yard touchdown. He also caught a three-yard TD pass.
While Williams probably will not be a consistent week-to-week performer, he will have a lot of splashy plays for the Lions this year. Having enough boom games to offset the bust games to finish as a top 20 WR is certainly possible given his profile, Detroit's presumed offensive success, and the dearth of similar weapons on the Lions.
2. Josh Allen has the greatest fantasy QB season of all time
This prediction may sound bolder than it is. After all, Allen already boasts four of the top eight fantasy QB seasons ever, including his 2023 campaign which ranked sixth per StatMuse. Still, while Allen is again the consensus QB1, there are some doubts that he can truly flourish with wideouts Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis having departed.
First, let's dispel the notion that Diggs was integral to Allen's success a year ago. Over his final eight games, Diggs reached double-digit PPR points just twice. Over that same span, Allen was the league's QB1, averaging 23.9 fantasy points per game. When Diggs's production dropped, Allen's did not.
Now let's consider the weapons Allen does have for 2024. The Bills took big-bodied receiver Keon Coleman with the first pick of the second round in this year's draft. Coleman will provide a physical presence on the outside and should be particularly effective in the red zone.
Keon Coleman's third TD of the night 🔥 pic.twitter.com/9c809EX1lM
— ESPN (@espn) September 4, 2023
Buffalo also added Curtis Samuel. He will operate from the slot as he did in Carolina and Washington prior. In 2020, Samuel had his best season as a pro; his offensive coordinator in Carolina that season was Joe Brady, who is now the OC in Buffalo. This reunion will prove fruitful in Allen's quest for a historic fantasy season.
The Bills have some great returning options as well. Khalil Shakir led all WRs last season with 13.6 yards per target, per PlayerProfiler. With an expanded role, he will become a huge contributor to the team. Dalton Kincaid will be in the conversation for overall TE1, providing a reliable target for Allen.
In all, Allen may have lost two of his top weapons from 2023, but he will still have enough to continue his fantasy dominance. To have the greatest fantasy QB season ever, Allen would have to surpass 429.4 PPR points. A stat line of 4,500 passing yards, 35 passing TDs, 10 interceptions, 700 rushing yards, and 10 rushing TDs would get him there.
3. Jaleel McLaughlin is Denver's top RB... by far
Jaleel McLaughlin's rookie season a year ago was quite efficient. According to PlayerProfiler, he averaged 0.95 PPR points per opportunity, ranking ninth among qualifying RBs. He also ranked fourth in true yards per carry and sixth in yards created per touch. While he is small at 5-foot-8 and 187 pounds, McLaughlin made the most of his touches.
How did his teammate Javonte Williams do? Not nearly as well. While Williams had far more carries than McLaughlin, he was much less effective on them. His 3.5 true yards per carry came in a full 1.6 yards below McLaughlin's average. Williams also averaged 0.3 fewer fantasy points per opportunity.
Well, surely the Broncos added another running back beyond Williams and a former UDFA in McLaughlin, right? They did through the draft, but fifth-rounder Audric Estime is a polar opposite player from McLaughlin. While Estime has size and strength, his 4.71-second 40-yard dash is troubling, and he never did much as a receiver at Notre Dame.
Williams will need to regain the burst he had before his ACL tear in 2022 to maintain his grip on a large share of the team's carries. If his efficiency is poor once again, it's easy to see Estime eating into his role. Given Estime's athletic limitations as a prospect, the backfield would likely become a mess with neither back being a viable fantasy option.
On the other hand, McLaughlin's role as at least the receiving and change-of-pace back is secure. This is supported by the Broncos reportedly being expected to part ways with Samaje Perine.
It is also worth noting that Sean Payton's teams have made great use of players like McLaughlin before. Comparisons have been drawn between McLaughlin and former Saint Darren Sproles, and Alvin Kamara is another former Payton RB who has used his receiving prowess to succeed.
Bo Nix finds Jaleel McLaughlin to set up the @Broncos in scoring position!
📺: #DENvsIND on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/r87EoxTrFq— NFL (@NFL) August 11, 2024
McLaughlin maintaining his explosive play ability from his rookie campaign, paired with mediocrity from the other parties in the RB room, would lead to larger usage on the ground too. This would mean him becoming far and away the best running back in Denver.
4. The Cardinals produce a top-6 RB
James Conner may be old for an RB at 29, but he is still playing quality football. Last season, Conner averaged 4.7 true yards per carry per PlayerProfiler. He also had the sixth-most breakaway runs and the 10th-best juke rate. His 1,040 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry marked career bests, and he found the end zone nine times.
When Arizona selected former Florida State RB Trey Benson in the third round this spring, many became concerned about Conner's 71.3% opportunity share taking a hit. However, this is Conner's final year of his current contract. The Benson pick was Arizona planning for 2025 after one more year of Conner as lead back.
Arizona's offense should be strong this year with star WR prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. joining the fold. Quarterback Kyler Murray is also healthy to begin the season unlike in 2023, and tight end Trey McBride should continue his emergence.
The last time Arizona had an offense above the league average in points was in 2021. What happened that year? Oh, Conner and his nose for the end zone scored 18 touchdowns.
Great way to end 2023 for James Conner 💪 pic.twitter.com/Hgp74RvOjD
— NFL (@NFL) January 1, 2024
If Conner stays healthy and fends off Father Time for another season, a top-10 RB season is in the cards. If Arizona's offense meets the hype and gets Conner more scoring opportunities, he could rise even further.
However, these are big ifs. Conner has played more than 13 games just once in the past six years, and RBs often decline sharply around age 28 or 29. Fortunately, Arizona has a backup plan if Conner falters. Benson has great speed with a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, and he was noted for his elusiveness.
Benson's size (6-foot-0, 216 pounds) is also that of a workhorse, and he showed flashes as a receiver at FSU. Should Conner struggle or get injured, Benson has enough promise to immediately claim a high ranking among fantasy RBs in this offense.
Of course, given that Benson will begin the season as Arizona's RB2, it's unlikely he will manage to finish as highly as the prediction indicates. Thus, in the scenario where Conner is usurped, add an asterisk to the prediction and judge Benson on a curve. From the point he takes over the backfield, Benson would be an elite fantasy option.
5. Pat Freiermuth outscores Travis Kelce
While the upheaval at quarterback has gotten the most headlines for the Steelers, Pittsburgh also made a very important move by dealing receiver Diontae Johnson to the Panthers this offseason. Johnson's 23.5% target share will be dispersed to the other receiving weapons, of which the two most notable are George Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth.
Freiermuth had a dismal season in 2023, averaging just 6.4 PPR points per game. However, he had been more successful in the past, including finishing as the TE7 in PPR formats in 2022.
New quarterback Russell Wilson, much-maligned during his time in Denver, will still provide an upgrade over the woefully ineffective Kenny Pickett, helping Freiermuth back toward his 2022 numbers.
Johnson's absence is not the only reason to expect an increase in volume either. The Steelers threw just 93 passes to tight ends last year. The Falcons, where new OC Arthur Smith has arrived from, had 174 targets go to their tight ends.
Freiermuth should be the clear No. 2 option in Pittsburgh behind Pickens, especially with rookie WR Roman Wilson currently injured. This gives him sneaky upside.
Pickett to Freiermuth! @Steelers are on the board
📺: #SFvsPIT on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/G4uoYVOqQn pic.twitter.com/bJjoul0An3— NFL (@NFL) September 10, 2023
On the other hand, star tight end Travis Kelce turns 35 years old in October. While still elite, Kelce did have his lowest yards per reception of his career and his lowest fantasy points average since 2016. From Week 8 through Week 18, Kelce was the TE11 in PPR points per game, although he did perform quite well in the postseason.
Additionally, the Chiefs have a new crop of receivers in town, which could lessen the reliance Patrick Mahomes had on Kelce last year. First-round rookie Xavier Worthy and free agent acquisition Marquise Brown will be very impactful alongside second-year WR Rashee Rice.
We could be seeing the beginning of the end of Kelce's dominance of the TE position in fantasy football, although overall TE1 is also still within the range of outcomes for him. There is risk though, and there is enough strength behind Freiermuth's outlook to make this a spicy, but plausible, prediction.
6. DeAndre Hopkins finishes as a top-15 WR in PPG
After two injury-plagued seasons, DeAndre Hopkins bounced back a year ago with 75 catches for 1,057 yards and seven TDs. However, Hopkins was not quite as productive on a per-game basis as he used to be. He averaged 13.2 PPR points per game, his lowest mark since 2016. Now, Hopkins is 32, making a return to form an uphill battle.
Let's delve deeper, though. In the eight games last season where QB Will Levis played the majority of snaps, Hopkins averaged 15.4 PPR points per game. Hopkins was the WR18 over that span. Levis is now coming off of his first full offseason as Tennessee's starting QB, and he should be expected to improve entering his sophomore campaign.
Will Levis to DeAndre Hopkins = ... the NFL's newest PROBLEM!??!?pic.twitter.com/6Jas84zHWS
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 29, 2023
The Titans are also making a philosophical shift. Former Cincinnati OC Brian Callahan is Tennessee's new head coach. Cincinnati was inside the top-8 in pass attempts in both 2022 and 2023, as opposed to the Titans' 30th-place finish last year. Callahan and new OC Nick Holz should greatly assist Levis' development.
Further reflecting the offensive changes is the new-look RB room. Out is Derrick Henry and in is former Cowboy Tony Pollard. In 2023, per PlayerProfiler, Henry's route participation rate was just 16.8%, much less than Pollard's 59.0%. This personnel decision shows a team becoming less reliant on the ground game.
Of course, other moves could pose challenges for Hopkins. The addition of fellow receiver Calvin Ridley, and to a lesser extent the signing of Tyler Boyd, will mean more target competition for Hopkins. Ridley made 76 receptions for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns last year and will contend for the title of Levis' top target in 2024.
Hopkins also has a knee injury at the moment that he suffered during training camp. However, he reportedly should be ready for Week 1.
To be a top-15 wideout on a per-game basis in 2023, one had to average 15.6 PPR points per game. Considering Hopkins nearly reached that mark with Levis a year ago, little has to change for him to become a top-15 WR this year.
The addition of Ridley can be offset by Levis continuing to develop and the offense slinging the ball at higher rates. This makes Hopkins a desirable target at his August NFFC ADP of WR41.
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