5 Third-Year Breakout Candidates: Top Fantasy Football Sleepers to Target in Drafts (2025)

Matt's fantasy football breakout candidates for third-year players. His 2025 fantasy football sleepers to target in drafts include: Marvin Mims Jr., Tank Bigsby, Cedric Tillman, Brenton Strange, and Josh Downs.

The 2023 NFL Draft infused plenty of top-end talent, as the likes of Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, Chase Brown, De'Von Achane, Tucker Kraft, and Sam LaPorta have already made significant impacts heading into their third season.

A breakout is defined as a sudden and extremely popular or successful. Last season, Fantasy managers witnessed many of the 2023 Draft class experience their breakout campaigns, as well as players such as Sam Darnold, Bucky Irving, Jerry Jeudy, Brian Thomas Jr., and Jameson Williams, proving that breakouts can happen at any given moment.

Looking at the names above, it's easy to see that fantasy managers have been spoiled in recent years with the talent that has transitioned from Saturdays to Sundays; yet, there are still some players looking to etch their names next to their peers in terms of fantasy dominance. Here are five sleeper candidates looking to break out in 2025.

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Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

First up, Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs. Downs flirted with a breakout last season, but inconsistent quarterback play spoiled his fantasy coming-out party. With Daniel Jones coming to town to compete with Anthony Richardson, the hope is that the Colts get an upgrade behind center with Jones or a hopefully more polished Richardson, who is also entering his third season.

As mentioned, Downs flashed at times a season ago, especially in PPR formats, becoming a reliable security blanket for Richardson in the short passing game. Downs averaged 13.11 fantasy points per contest, and his 183.5 fantasy points marked him as the WR34, which was 7.7 fantasy points fewer than DK Metcalf and more production than Miami received from Jaylen Waddle.

When looking for paths to success, Downs was fourth in the NFL behind Nacua, Malik Nabers, and Drake London in terms of targets per route run (0.30). However, his 13.1 fantasy points per game were significantly lower than anyone else in the top 10, showing that positive regression could go a long way in Downs' success in 2025.

Josh Downs is DUE! 📈 @FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/2VABtIGGdn

— Fantasy Points (@FantasyPts) June 2, 2025

Downs was among the elite when it came to separation created on out-breaking routes (out, digs, etc.) and vertical routes (go, post, etc.), which likely led Matt Harmon of Reception Perception to slot Downs inside his top 20 rankings among wide receivers in dynasty.

Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Brenton Strange finished the 2024 season with 40 receptions, 411 receiving yards, and a pair of touchdowns, averaging 6.51 fantasy points per game. However, those numbers are deceiving, considering they are stretched over the entire duration of the 2024 campaign, a campaign in which Strange gave way to Evan Engram, especially early on.

In the offseason, the Jaguars parted ways with Engram, Gabe Davis, and Christian Kirk, and General Manager James Gladstone mentioned back in February that the team was excited about Strange's "ascension in Year Two, and think he'll have a part in the offense moving forward, in a way that we haven't seen yet." 

#Jaguars GM James Gladstone on Brenton Strange:

“Really excited about his ascension in Year Two, and I think he’ll have a part in the offense moving forward, in a way that we haven’t seen yet.” pic.twitter.com/1I7qHMt0vS

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) February 25, 2025

Bottom line: between the departures of Engram, Kirk, and Davis, there are 153 vacated targets in a Liam Coen offense, even if Travis Hunter manages to inherit 120 of those targets. That's an additional 33 targets for Strange to add to the 53 he saw last season; 86 targets would have Strange ranked 10th last season in total targets for a tight end.

Another factor working in Strange's favour is the Jaguars' schedule. Jacksonville faces six teams this season that ranked inside the top 10 in touchdowns allowed to the tight end position, including both the Panthers (most) and the Bengals (second-most), to kick-start the 2025 season. Early-season confidence, combined with a splash of support from elite talent, is a recipe for a breakout.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns

Everyone wants to talk about Jeudy's breakout in Cleveland last season, but somewhat ignores what Cedric Tillman was doing after the Amari Cooper Trade. Cooper was dealt ahead of Week 7, and Tillman gave the Browns a much-needed second option in the passing game. 

Cedric Tillman pic.twitter.com/k9J9gkXLlA

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 7, 2024

From Week 7 on, Tillman averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game and earned a 25.7% first-read target share in games in which he was available, having been targeted 8.4 times per contest. With Jameis Winston out there, making dreams come true with a pass volume that was very fantasy-friendly, those 18.6 fantasy points per game had Tillman as the WR5 in fantasy, and the production over that period was greater than the output from Jeudy over the same sample size.

In the four games preceding Tillman's concussion, the Browns receiver accounted for 24 receptions, 302 receiving yards (75.5 per game), 92 yards after the catch, and three touchdowns, thanks to a 20.1% target share. Tillman has proven he can be productive when an opportunity presents itself. With no other real threats added to the Browns' passing game this past offseason, Tillman will have every opportunity to build upon last season's success. 

Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

It feels like it is now or never for Tank Bigsby. Last season, Bigsby outproduced Travis Etienne Jr., rushing for 766 yards on 168 carries (4.6 yards per attempt) versus 558 yards on 150 attempts (3.7 YPC), yet some in these fantasy streets seem to be intrigued by the very thought of an Etienne bounce-back campaign in 205. Also, let's not forget that Jacksonville drafted Bhayshul Tuten, and the same Coen, who likes what he sees from Etienne, is the same Coen who transitioned from Rachaad White to Irving in Tampa Bay.

Looking at the Jaguars' backfield, one could argue that Tuten complements Bigsby more than either back complements Etienne, and that the new regime in Duval has no loyalty to Etienne, whom they could trade or even release ahead of Week 1.

Bigsby's 3.30 yards after contact per attempt were the most among running backs last season, with at least 150 rushing attempts; those yards after contact accounted for 72.3% of Bigsby's rushing total.

Tank Bigsby pic.twitter.com/a5bCdvpGWD

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 25, 2025

More data that suggests Bigsby is on the verge of a breakout: 31.6% of his rushing yards came on explosive runs. Only Derrick Henry, Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Irving, and J.K. Dobbins were more explosive, having carried the ball on at least 160 occasions.

Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos

Another season, another Marvin Mims Jr. breakout prediction. In 2023, Mims caught 22 passes for 377 yards, averaging 17.1 yards per reception. In 2024, Mims improved upon those numbers, hauling in 39 passes for 503 yards and raising his touchdown total from one in his rookie season to six a season ago. Fun fact: Mims's 478 yards after the catch last season had him just outside the top 10 rankings, 11th among his wide receiver peers, despite all but one ahead of him having seen 50 or more targets than Mims.

Bo Nix ABSOLUTE CINEMA.

📺: #DENvsCIN on NFL Network
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/LpdaNr6sVi

— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2024

In the first season in Sean Payton's offense, Mims averaged 2.78 yards per route run, trailing only Nacua, A.J. Brown, Collins, and George Kittle among pass catchers who ran at least 180 routes last season. Mims's targets per route run (0.28) were on par with elite fantasy options such as Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, and Thomas.

Denver has arguably constructed one of the top five or six rosters in the NFL, and second-year quarterback Bo Nix is adjusting to life in the NFL as he seemingly broke out over the second half of the season. 

With the continued growth of Nix, it's reasonable to believe that Mims will continue his upward trajectory and build upon his final two games that closed out the 2024 campaign. In those final two contests, Mims had five or more receptions in each, scored four touchdowns, and finished with 52.4 fantasy points.

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