Newly Signed Free Agents With Fantasy Football Bust Potential In 2025

Dave Ventresca's five free agent busts for 2025 fantasy football. Which newly-signed free agent should be avoided in fantasy football drafts? Read the expert dynasty analysis.

The NFL offseason got off to a fast start. We saw many big-name players switch teams via trades and free agency. With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, things have cooled off a bit in terms of player movement. That means it is a good time to slow down and analyze some of the free-agent moves that have already taken place.

Just because a player switches teams, it’s not guaranteed they will experience the same success they’ve always had. Bad contracts are handed out every offseason. That means there are landmines fantasy football managers have to avoid during their drafts. Today, we will do our best to help gamers avoid several players with new homes who could severely disappoint this upcoming season.

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X, and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are five newly signed free agents with bust potential for the 2025 fantasy football season.

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Aaron Jones - RB, Minnesota Vikings

Jones re-signed with the Minnesota Vikings on a two-year, $20 million deal. It’s understandable why Minnesota would want to keep Jones around, as he ran for a career-high 1,138 rushing yards last year. He also caught 51 passes for 408 receiving yards and scored seven total touchdowns. Jones would finish 2024 as the PPR RB15.

AARON JONES LEAPT INTO THE STANDS AFTER HIS 50TH CAREER RUSH TD 💪 pic.twitter.com/CECRe0VRit

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 17, 2024

While that was all well and good, Jones touched the ball a career-high 306 times last year. 2025 will be his age-30 season. Minnesota has said it wants to avoid overworking him this season. To that end, the Vikings recently acquired running back Jordan Mason in a trade with the San Francisco 49ers.

Mason was quite good filling in for Christian McCaffrey last year as he averaged over five yards per carry and ran for 789 yards to go along with three touchdowns.

The Jordan Mason touchdown managers were waiting for!

He has 93 yards and a TD so far! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/lhubclHsVx

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) September 10, 2024

The fourth-year back also finished higher than Jones in a variety of metrics. Mason scored better in Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected (RYOE), rush yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/ATT), PFF elusive rating, and PFF rushing grade.

All of this is not to say that Mason is a threat to overtake the RB1 crown from Jones. However, he is a major threat for touches and will limit Jones’ upside. The team has made it clear it wants to lighten Jones’ workload and has stated it acquired Mason for specifically that reason.

This means Jones' numbers will almost certainly take a step back from his 2024 totals. Gamers should proceed carefully with Jones in their drafts.

Rico Dowdle - RB, Carolina Panthers

Dowdle enjoyed a nice season with the Dallas Cowboys in 2024. He emerged as the team’s lead back, eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing, and finished as the PPR RB23.

Rico Dowdle picks up 27 yards!

📺: #CINvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus & ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/jB6DA4IBQ2

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2024

Dallas opted not to re-sign him, so he wound up signing a one-year deal with the Carolina Panthers. Head coach Dave Canales has said that he plans on using Dowdle in tandem with current RB1 Chuba Hubbard. While that sounds good, Hubbard is coming off a career year, and Carolina signed him to an extension that made him one of the highest-paid backs in the league.

We should expect to see Dowdle carve out some kind of role in Carolina’s offense, but he’s unlikely to supplant Hubbard as the lead back. Don’t get carried away and expect big things from Dowdle after a nice 2024. He’s an RB2 in a poor offense and won’t be more than a handcuff for 2025.

Russell Wilson - QB, New York Giants

Wilson signed a one-year, $10.5 million deal with the New York Giants this offseason. He took over as the Pittsburgh Steelers starter last year after returning from injury and initially had success. In 11 starts, Wilson threw 16 touchdown passes against five interceptions and registered a 6-5 record as a starter.

RUSSELL WILSON TO Mike Williams! @STEELERS LEAD!

📺: #PITvsWAS on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/zM3oWDIj95

— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024

Unfortunately, Pittsburgh’s offense would flame out down the home stretch, and the team’s season ended with a Wild Card loss to the Baltimore Ravens. New York has said the plan is for Wilson to be the starter. That might sound like a good thing, but there’s a real possibility Wilson could be benched at some point during the season.

HC Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen are fighting for their jobs this year. The Giants roster is not good, so there’s a very real possibility they will lose games early and often. If that happens, the Daboll and Schoen brain trust could turn to Jameis Winston (who the team also signed this offseason) in a desperate attempt to save their jobs. There’s also the possibility that New York selects a quarterback with the third overall pick in the NFL Draft. Wilson could also be benched in favor of this player if things go sideways.

Overall, there’s a ton of risk surrounding Wilson. He proved last year he’s not completely dust, but outside of having Malik Nabers, this is not a great situation for fantasy success. Look for other signal-callers on draft day.

Sam Darnold - QB, Seattle Seahawks

Darnold was the feel-good story of the 2024 season. After failed stints as a starter for the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers, he latched on with the Minnesota Vikings. Darnold proved to be one of the best signings of the year, as he would have a career year in 2024. He had career highs in yards and touchdowns and finished as the overall QB9.

WOW. SAM DARNOLD TO Justin Jefferson FOR A 97-YARD TD!pic.twitter.com/5XZ1yTEorF

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 15, 2024

However, a disastrous final two games saw Darnold revert to the player we saw flounder as the Jets starting quarterback. He didn’t resemble the same player we saw during the season’s first 16 games. As a result, Minnesota opted not to re-sign him.

His final two games undoubtedly cost him money in free agency, but Darnold was still able to land a starting gig. The Seattle Seahawks handed Darnold a three-year, $100.5 million contract to become their new starting quarterback. On the surface, Seattle didn’t seem too phased by Darnold’s disastrous end to the 2024 season. Upon further review, though, this may not be such a great landing spot for him.

29% of Sam Darnold's incompletions were because he was being pressured

#5 highest rate in the NFL

And the single biggest reason Darnold would miss passes

but that was behind a Vikings OL that ranked #2 in pass block win rate

he's going to be pressured A LOT MORE in Seattle…

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 10, 2025

Seattle’s offensive line has been a mess for several years. Unless it addresses this issue, Darnold could struggle.

Then there’s Darnold’s contract, which, again, looked like a strong commitment to him. However, the team has a sneaky out in the contract. It can get away from Darnold’s contract after only one year and $37.5 million. This is a major red flag as it doesn’t seem likely a team would structure a contract this way if it truly believed in him.

This essentially makes Darnold’s contract a one-year “prove it” deal. It doesn’t preclude Seattle from drafting a rookie quarterback, and it won't stop it from benching Darnold if his play isn’t up to par.

Darnold was a nice story last year, but the clock has struck midnight. Don’t expect a repeat performance of last year. He’s a ticking time bomb waiting to explode in fantasy gamers’ faces. That makes him a hard pass on draft day.

Cooper Kupp - WR, Seattle Seahawks

We are going to continue picking on the Seattle Seahawks. Kupp is coming off another disappointing season. He tied a career low by averaging just 10.6 yards per reception last year and had his lowest receiving yards per game since his rookie year in 2017. Injuries might be taking their toll, and he hasn’t resembled the same player we saw win the Triple Crown back in 2021.

The Seahawks don’t seem to agree and were comfortable giving Kupp a three-year, $45 million contract this offseason. It was a head-scratching move, considering the downward trajectory of Kupp’s career the last few years.

It’s now unclear how Kupp will fit schematically playing alongside a player like Jaxon Smith-Njigba. There are also major issues to consider with Kupp’s new signal-caller, which were just highlighted above.

Overall, there are just too many factors working against Kupp to expect a return to form. This situation is undoubtedly a downgrade compared to what Kupp had playing in Sean McVay’s offense in Los Angeles. Let someone else play hero in your draft and pass on Kupp for other options.

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