Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Part 4

Dan analyzes 5 pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers who are surging for Week 9. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks for Andrew Abbott, Reese Olson, Matthew Liberatore, and others.

This week, we will focus on a group of pitchers in the 50-70% rostership band, so there shouldn't be any confusion about the use of the term "breakout." These pitchers have not been highly successful fantasy performers in the past, but they are all on the cusp of becoming one this season.

The other term I use is "fake out" regarding pitchers who might be producing unsustainable results based on their underlying numbers.

With the analysis for each player, I attempt to decide whether they can sustain their early-season success or if regression to their prior level of performance is inevitable. I always reach a verdict for each player, where I try to take my most well-educated guess about how they'll perform going forward.

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The Red Flag Statistics

I thought it might be helpful for us to look at this set of stats for the entire group of pitchers, all in one spot. I call these the "red flag stats" because they are some of the first ones I examine when trying to figure out why a pitcher's surface-level stats (such as ERA) may differ from their other ERA-indicators.

• BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play
• LOB%: Left On Base Percentage (also known as "strand rate.") This is a percentage of runners who got on base against a pitcher, but did not score.
• HR/FB: The percentage of fly balls that were also home runs given up by a pitcher
• K-BB%: A pitcher's strikeout rate minus their walk rate - the bigger the number, the better.
• Hard%: The percentage of batted balls that were hit "hard" by opposing hitters.

Spoiler alert! We have at least one pitcher with a red flag in all five categories! Let's move on to the individual player breakdowns for more specific analysis.

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

2025 Fantasy Stats: 35 IP, 3 W, 43K, 1.80 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.62 SIERA, 2.24 xERA, 30.3% K%, 26.5% GB%, 96 Stuff+

I'll admit that Abbott is the most puzzling pitcher I have attempted to break down in some time. Coming into this season, I had him squarely on my "do not draft list" as I didn't see much in his profile that I liked, and I predicted further negative regression in 2025, if anything.

I certainly didn't see this start to the season coming. Abbott has surpassed mine (and probably everyone's) expectations. Not only has he provided some pristine ratios, but he's also racked up well over a strikeout per inning in the process. He's done it while making four of seven starts at his home ballpark - one of the most unfriendly environments for a fly-ball prone pitcher.

Andrew Abbott, Painting with Curveballs. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/kBdHZDDe0D

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 14, 2025

So, how is a guy who barely touches 92 mph on his fastball and who doesn't have an elite breaking pitch in his arsenal doing it? It has to be fake, right? Well, the 89% strand rate (see the red flag stat chart) isn't sustainable. You think that the HR/FB and BABIP would also be heading for regression, especially with Abbott having such an extreme fly ball tendency (57.8%).

But maybe not. There's an excellent article by Jake Mailhot at Fangraphs that digs into a few minor tweaks that Abbott has made this season that have made all the difference.

You should read it, but in summary, Mailhot discusses the higher arm slot that Abbott is using this season and how his four-seamer has maintained its solid induced vertical break but added more arm-side horizontal run. The pitch moves away from right-handed hitters despite coming in from a high arm slot, causing hitters to swing under it or hit it off the end of the bat.

From his batted ball metrics, Abbott is limiting hard contact at an elite rate. He's also getting more vertical drop on his changeup and has upped his usage on the pitch, allowing him to be less dependent on his sweeper and curveball as secondary offerings.

He has an xBA under .200 on all four pitches, which is incredibly impressive considering none of them have above-average movement. I don't think he can sustain such a high K% on an 11.2% SwStr% and 26.7% CSW%, but his ability to suppress hard contact could be here to stay. He needs to cut down on the walks a bit; they'll catch up to him and his ERA and WHIP eventually, but I'm starting to think he's transforming into a pretty good overall starting pitcher.

Verdict: Some regression to Abbott's K% and ERA is almost a certainty, but his elite batted ball metrics suggest that he could still produce very usable numbers for fantasy baseball. I'm still not entirely sure how he's doing it, but it could just be that as a complete pitcher, he is better than the sum of all his parts (since he is lacking any one pitch that is dominant).

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

2025 Fantasy Stats: 52.1 IP, 3 W, 47 K, 2.92 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.45 SIERA, 2.90 xERA, 22.4% K%, 43.1% GB%, 100 Stuff+

It was starting to look like Liberatore would be a first-round bust after he failed to produce in his first three seasons with the Cardinals. But the big lefty is finally putting it together this year and getting fantastic results.

We saw glimpses of the improvement last season, when he finished the 2024 campaign with a 4.40 ERA over 86 innings pitched. He made a few significant changes to his arsenal of pitches last season and has continued to tweak it this year.

Liberatore is a genuine six-pitch guy, throwing all six pitches at least 10% of the time and no pitch more than 25% of the time. This year, he's upped his cutter, changeup, and curveball usage while throwing his sinker less often. This was a smart move, as his sinker was easily one of his worst pitches based on its movement and batted ball metrics.

I really like what he's done here, as it feels like he's now maximizing the potential of some of his best pitches. He's not quite ready to be the next Max Fried, but his profile resembles that of a crafty lefty who can mix and match velocity and drastically different-shaped pitches. His curveball beautifully falls off the table with an elite 64.5 inches of vertical drop.

Matthew Liberatore, Pretty 80mph Curveball. 🌈 pic.twitter.com/dpG0PPue20

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 13, 2025

His slider also has a sharp, downward trajectory, and he throws it anywhere from seven to 10 mph faster.

Matthew Liberatore, Wicked 87mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/ShedG61YxN

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 12, 2025

His control has been pristine, with only a 3.8% BB%. He's sporting a 107 Location+ metric, which further helps to explain why his arsenal has been so effective. He's taken a big leap in his control, cutting his walk rate in half and painting the corners with his pitches. The only major red flag on our chart is his HR/FB%, but it's not enough to deter me from a glowing recommendation.

Verdict: Liberatore is a former blue-chip prospect who is finally learning how to best utilize his stuff and has taken a huge leap in his ability to locate his pitches. He's not going to be an elite strikeout pitcher, but he could continue to produce excellent ratios, especially in WHIP. I'm convinced his improvement is for real, and he's ready to be a reliable fantasy contributor for the rest of the season and going forward.

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

2025 Fantasy Stats: 51.1 IP, 4 W, 51.1 K, 2.98 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.54 SIERA, 3.40 xERA, 24.8% K%, 34.5% GB%, 95 Stuff+

Get ready for the most boring analysis of the bunch. Matt Boyd is enjoying a nice revival of his career in Chicago this season, which started last year in Cleveland when he made eight starts for the Guardians and posted a 2.72 ERA over 39 innings.

The old Boyd from his days in Detroit featured a nasty slider nearly 30% of the time, but the veteran has retooled his arsenal so that his changeup and slider are used around 20% of the time as the main offspeed pitches.

Matthew Boyd has a 33.3% K-BB% in the month of May.

Only Tarik Skubal has a higher K-BB% over this span.

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) May 19, 2025

He doesn't throw overly hard at 93 mph, but his fastball moves a lot horizontally, tailing away from righties thanks to his low 25-degree arm slot. He's getting solid strikeout numbers while also limiting hard contact, something he didn't always do, and that's allowed him to post a very solid ERA.

The only red flag is the strand rate at 82%. The rest checks out well, and we aren't seeing anything all that new or different from Boyd than what he did at the end of last season. Bringing him in for depth in their rotation was a sharp move by the Cubs, and they are getting the most out of him right now.

Verdict: Boyd is solid, but not sexy, and should continue to eat innings and be in line for some wins with an elite offense behind him. He could easily continue this level of production, but he's probably maxed out here and could regress a little, but not too much, going forward.

AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves

2025 Fantasy Stats: 38.2 IP, 3 W, 40 K, 2.33 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.98 SIERA, 4.88 xERA, 24.8% K%, 38.2% GB%, 97 Stuff+

This is our guy with all red in the chart, so I apologize in advance if you thought you would get a positive recommendation on Smith-Shawver.

Let's start with some positives first, though. Of the pitchers featured here in this piece, Smith-Shawver has the best chance of maintaining his solid K% of 25%, as he has a healthy 12.4% and probably the nastiest pitch of the group with his split-finger that has a 44.6% whiff rate.

AJ Smith-Shawver, Filthy 86mph Splitter...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/2MIWI2cVcB

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 10, 2025

His curveball has an elite whiff rate of 43.5%, too, but it also gets hit hard. This is where the bulk of my issues with Smith-Shawver come from —his batted ball metrics are quite bad, summed up by his 37% hard-contact rate.

His fastball averages 95 mph on the gun but lacks movement on either plane, making it very hittable. He throws the fastball 46% of the time and relies on his splitter at 34%. It's tough being reliant on a split-finger pitch without having some control issues, which Smith-Shawver does with a 10.6% BB%.

With an unsustainable strand rate, questionable control, and some iffy batted ball results, it's easy to see why his ERA indicators predict significant regression.

Verdict: While Smith-Shawver has shown some impressive strikeout potential, he's still very raw and isn't likely to maintain this type of production in ERA. His WHIP is already high, and his profile suggests that he will have difficulty keeping his ratios anywhere close to where they are now. He's a clear fake-out for me.

Will Warren, New York Yankees

2025 Fantasy Stats: 46.2 IP, 3 W, 60 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.22 SIERA, 3.65 xERA, 29.7% K%, 43% GB%, 102 Stuff+

I was going to dig into Reese Olson and his strong start, but he's now on the injured list, and I thought it would be fun to look at the Yankees youngster Warren instead, since he's making quite a splash lately, striking everyone out over his last handful of starts.

A quick look at his movement profile is warranted here. Holy movement, Batman! Warren's stuff moves a ton and in drastically different directions. Baseball Savant says all four of his secondary pitches (sinker, sweeper, changeup, curveball) have above-average vertical and horizontal movement. We see a lot of pitchers with elite movement up and down or side to side, but not too many with an arsenal that features such elite movement on each plane.

He's leading with his four-seamer, but at only 35% usage, he's not overly dependent on it. It's not a nasty fastball, just very average in velocity and movement.

His sinker is not quite Logan Webb's quality, but it drops nearly four inches more than the average sinker and features 17.6 inches of arm-side run.

The sinker pairs incredibly well with Warren's best pitch, his sweeper. The sweeper has an average horizontal break of 20 inches, and it's no coincidence that he's upped his strikeout numbers by throwing it more often.

Will Warren, Two Seamer and Sweeper Overlay.

Look how far apart these pitches are...and then cross. pic.twitter.com/3dU4lLAOSM

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 21, 2025

He's throwing out of a very low arm slot, which helps him achieve such elite horizontal movement. He still needs to fine-tune his control a bit with a walk rate approaching 9%, but he's shown some major improvement lately with just three walks over his last three starts combined.

Warren's only real red flag from our earlier chart is his hard contact rate. But I think we can live with it being that high if he continues to miss bats as often as he has lately.

Verdict: Warren appears to be breaking out in a big way for the Yankees in terms of his strikeout potential. It's still a small sample size of innings, but he has the talent and profile of a pitcher who could be very good and is worth investing in right now.

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