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Thursday Night Football for Week 6 presents two bitter rivals from an NFC West division that has been turned on its head since the start of the 2024 NFL season. Many of the fantasy football options from this division (Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Trey McBride) have been hurt or have underperformed. In addition, not all teams are performing to preseason expectations.
Consider that the two teams projected to make the playoffs -- the 49ers and the Rams -- are in third and fourth place, respectively, and are a combined 3-7. Seattle and Arizona have exceeded expectations, but the division is upside down. These four teams are a combined 2-6 in their last eight games somehow. As the division matchups kick into high gear this week, will one team emerge as a favorite?
I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all year, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this next awesome Thursday night matchup for Week 6 of the 2024 season. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - 8:20 p.m. EDT
Notable Injuries:
- Jake Moody, San Francisco - Kicker - OUT - Ankle
- George Kittle, San Francisco - Tight End - Questionable - Ribs
49ers at Seahawks Matchup Breakdown
This matchup between the 49ers and Seahawks comes down to a tale of two teams in the red zone. If you just look at offensive touchdowns, you would think these teams are about equal on offense. Seattle scores 2.8 touchdowns per game compared to 2.2 for San Francisco.
But only one of these teams has been efficient near the end zone this season, and it's not the team that many were picking to win the Super Bowl. Seattle is scoring 2.8 touchdowns per game on 2.2 red-zone trips per game (30th in the NFL). San Francisco is scoring 2.2 touchdowns on 4.4 red-zone trips per game (third in the NFL).
A prime opportunity. pic.twitter.com/GtPfCkKnBY
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 9, 2024
The 49ers have scored touchdowns on just 40.9% of their red-zone trips this year, which is 29th in football. That has to change if they want to compete for the playoffs. Fortunately, this matchup against the Seattle defense might be the get-right spot.
Seattle lost 29-20 at home to the New York Giants last week, and it would have looked a lot worse if not for a goal-line fumble (that was returned for a touchdown) by New York. The game was a half-yard from being a 36-13 shellacking.
Seattle is 29th in football, allowing 3.8 red-zone scoring attempts per game. San Francisco has to convert in that area when it pushes Seattle that far.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
After a 10-point dud in Week 1, Brock Purdy has at least 15 fantasy points in four straight games. He has all his pass-catchers healthy, and can still pick up points with his legs as well. Daniel Jones just dropped 22 points on Seattle with a backup running back and no Malik Nabers.
Jordan Mason (RB, SF)
What more needs to be said about Jordan Mason in Christian McCaffrey's absence? He is second in the NFL in rushing yards, first in attempts, and third in rushing yards per game. Despite never having anything like this kind of workload, Mason is averaging more than five yards per rush.
Jordan Mason just destroying defenders 😳
📺: #AZvsSF on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/sPP78bRkho— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, SF)
If last week was Brandon Aiyuk week, look for Deebo Samuel to bounce back in Week 6. After just one catch for 11 yards, Samuel remains a must-start because of his versatility, yards after the catch ability, and the fact that he is essentially the backup running back to Jordan Mason right now.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Brandon Aiyuk popped off against the Cardinals for eight catches for 147 yards on a season-high 12 targets. Most encouragingly, after a slow start due to the contract dispute, Aiyuk was up to 92% of snaps, which led all skill players for San Francisco.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
George Kittle has scored a touchdown in three straight games he played (he missed Week 3). In that time, he does not have fewer than four catches and 45 yards in any contest. As Brock Purdy's new favorite target, Kittle now has the second-best target share among tight ends (25.4%).
George Kittle Limited Again On Tuesday https://t.co/B38fZybWM7
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) October 8, 2024
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
Just five rush attempts for Kenneth Walker III in a week after he scored three touchdowns seems almost criminal. But that's what he got on Sunday. He did receive eight targets and caught seven balls. Give him that usage in the passing game plus his routine 18-20 carries, and we could be talking about one of the best backs in all of fantasy football.
DK Metcalf (WR, SEA)
How has DK Metcalf earned his WR17 spot in half-PPR formats? Inconsistency, if we are being honest. His finishes by week so far have been: 2.9, 18.9, 16.4, 8.4, and 3.5. Still, we have to rely on the usage and trust that production will come. Metcalf is eighth in targets, fourth in routes run, fifth in air yards, and fourth in overall receiving yards.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA)
There is no doubt that JSN is a full-time player and is now an integral part of this Seattle offense. He is second on the team in targets with 40, just three behind Metcalf. However, it's been a roller coaster to get there. JSN has two games with 12 or more targets and two games with three or fewer.
Before he can graduate to must-start status in all leagues, there needs to be some consistency and touchdown upside. His four red-zone targets this year certainly help there.
JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA WHEN FANTASY MANAGERS NEEDED HIM MOST pic.twitter.com/cRdtcOzx8q
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 6, 2024
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Tyler Lockett has taken a backseat to Smith-Njigba this season, but he is still routinely putting up flex-worthy performances. In only one game this season does Lockett not have at least five receptions or 75 yards.
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
Why has Geno Smith ascended to a top-7 quarterback in fantasy football this season? He only has one game below 18 fantasy points this season. Smith leads the NFL in attempts, completions, and passing yards thanks to a new offense installed by Mike Macdonald.
He only has five passing touchdowns this year, but with this kind of volume, that is sure to change in the weeks ahead.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Jauan Jennings (WR, SF)
With just four targets and one catch on Sunday, what many feared might happen did occur when all of San Francisco's pass-catchers returned. Jennings dominated for two weeks while the 49ers battled injuries, but in Week 5, he played just half of their snaps.
Noah Fant (TE, SEA)
Despite a decent amount of preseason hype, Noah Fant is currently TE26 through five weeks. He has scored more than 3.9 fantasy points in half-PPR formats just once in five weeks.
Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA)
Since playing more than 90% of the snaps in Weeks 2 and 3 when Kenneth Walker III was hurt, Charbonnet has reverted back into a part-time player. He was in on just 36% of Seattle's snaps on Sunday, and Walker also stole eight targets away from him in that game as well.
Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks
Current Spread: San Francisco -3.5, Total: 47.5
Even this early in the season, the San Francisco 49ers -- who are the better team -- simply cannot fall two games behind Seattle in the division. Even more than that, they cannot give Seattle the advantage on the tiebreaker considering how competitive this division seems to be.
In the end, Seattle's defense is pushed to its ultimate limits by the plethora of playmakers on the 49ers. For the second week in a row, we get a shootout on Thursday Night Football.
The pick for Thursday Night Football this week is a desperate San Francisco 49ers team wins on the road, 30-24.
The Pick: San Francisco -3.5, OVER 47.5
2024 Record:
Spread (3-2), Over/Under (3-2)
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