The feeling you get when a late-round draft pick or early season pickup goes on to become an integral part of your team is one of the best that can come from fantasy sports. It’s happened to all of us, and this year it’s bound to happen again. For this article, however, we’ll look at the step that follows the breakout season, with four candidates who are poised to improve upon their newfound success and follow it up with another productive campaign.
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Four Breakout Stars in Their Prime
1. Travis d’Arnaud, C (New York Mets)
Breakout seasons can vary in number of games played, and d’Arnaud’s 2015 campaign exemplifies that. In his third year in the majors, he was only able to play 67 games, as a broken hand and a sprained left elbow caused him to miss extended time. His numbers, however, were a great sign for hope.
Despite playing in 41 fewer games than he did in 2014, his HR/RBI numbers were nearly identical, as he equaled his RBI total of 41 and his 12 HR were one short of his 2014 mark. His slash line of .268/.340/.485 was solid. The data suggests it's not a small sample aberration. His .825 OPS was second among NL catchers with at least 250 plate appearances, only trailing Buster Posey.
One area in which to expect d'Arnaud to significantly improve in is his HR total. Of course, this all depends on his ability to make it through the season without injury, but he has the ability to hit 20 homers. Now 27 years old, d’Arnaud should be about to hit his prime. With fantasy projections calling for him to be a top five catcher, this could be the first of his best years.
2. Nolan Arenado, 3B (Colorado Rockies)
After two solid seasons that saw him win a pair of Gold Gloves and hit .267 and .287, Arenado established himself as one of the most fearsome hitters in the game in 2015. Smashing 42 HR with 130 RBI, he led the NL in both categories, tied with Bryce Harper in the HR department. His average remained at .287, quite impressive considering his K% jumped up four points.
Entering his age 25 season, Arenado is in his prime years. Calling Coors Field home is sure to help him avoid becoming a fluke. Arenado recorded 177 base hits last year, and if he can cut his strikeouts just slightly, he can very well hit in the .290s as he becomes a more mature ballplayer. Our staff currently ranks him as the third-best 3B in the league, trailing only Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado. Odds are, he'll be taken in the first round in your league.
3. A.J. Pollock, OF (Arizona Diamondbacks)
With three unsteady years in the majors, Pollock finally put everything together and had a solid 2015, garnering his first All-Star selection and Gold Glove Award. Playing in all but five games, he hit .315 with 20 HR, 76 RBI, and 39 SB. His K% dropped nearly three points, and his BB% increased.
At this point, Pollock figures to be heavily protected in the Diamondbacks lineup by Paul Goldschmidt. Those who draft him should be very excited for the potential season he may be putting together in 2016. At 28 years old, the best years he’ll ever have as a professional should be happening right now.
Last year, he came within one stolen base of going 20/40. This year he could very well attain that mark. Look for all of his numbers to remain on an upward trend, as he has a chance to cross 200 hits this season. With his fantasy OF ranking at eight, Pollock may be one to snatch up in the first three rounds.
4. Carlos Martinez, SP (St. Louis Cardinals)
Not every improving breakout player demands an early draft exit, and Martinez hails from that category. After some time as a relief pitcher, Martinez had his first season as a starter last year, going 14-7 with a 3.01 ERA and 184 SO in 179.2 IP. Although his shoulder troubles caused him to miss the final stretch of the season and playoffs, he still earned an All-Star selection, showing flashes of brilliance with a 9.22 K/9 ratio.
Sensing worries of how his shoulder will factor into his 2016 season, Martinez worked on strengthening during the offseason, preparing for another full season. Although the Cardinals are strong at the top of the rotation with Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha, Martinez could very well break through at the top, positioning himself as an ace for years to come.
For 2016, Martinez should be able to continue his strong strikeout rate, while keeping his walk rates low. He may begin the season as the fourth or fifth starter in the rotation, but his value will be that of a pitcher higher in the pecking order. Expect Martinez to stick around through the middle rounds of the draft, positioning him to be a late-round steal.
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