Later-Round Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates - American League Edition

The term "sleeper" is a fun word in the fantasy community. People always like to talk about their "late-round sleepers" and rightfully so because when it pans out, you feel like the coolest kid on the block. To be successful in your upcoming fantasy baseball drafts, it's important to be prepared and have a reason for targeting a specific player.

In addition, I would advise fantasy managers to do a few mock drafts to help them get a general idea of what players might be available for each round or price for auction leagues. Write them down and compile a "target list" of players they want on their team based on their research.

When the draft room opens, go ahead and queue them up so that you have them readily available. In this piece, I will focus on American League sleepers and late-round fliers to help you bolster your roster for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. I'll discuss a few hitters and pitchers, each with an ADP of 230.0 or higher, according to NFBC. To help you stay up to date with the latest news, be sure to keep following @RotoBallerMLB and me @NichoRoessler on X for more league-winning content.

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Reese Olson, SP, Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers 25-year-old starting pitcher Reese Olson had a strong 2024 campaign; he went 4-8 in 22 starts, with a 21.7 percent strikeout rate, 3.53 ERA, 3.17 FIP, and a 2.4 WAR in 112 1/3 innings pitched. It was a nice improvement from his first taste of MLB in 2023, during which he had a 3.99 ERA in 103 2/3 innings pitched. 

Heading into the 2025 season, Olson is projected to be the No. 3 starter behind the 2024 American League Cy Young Award winner, Tarik Skubal, and newly acquired veteran Jack Flaherty. Olson has many pitches, including a slider, four-seam fastball, changeup, sinker, and curveball. 

His best pitches are his slider (.143 BA) and changeup (.222 BA). Those two pitches also generate the highest putaway percentage, 22.4 and 19.8 percent, respectively, and whiff percentage, 45.5 percent and 42.9 percent, respectively. Olson needs to improve his fastball, which last year got clobbered to the tune of .282 BA and a .398 slugging percentage.

Olson's metrics are rock-solid across the board, as shown in the graph below. He generates swings and misses, misses barrels often, and generates a lot of ground balls.

This graph tells me that when Olson allows hits, they are generally hit pretty hard and with high velocity. In addition, his 7.1 percent walk rate could also be improved. If Olson can minimize the loud contact on his fastball and limit the free passes, he should be in line for a productive season.

According to NFBC, Olson's ADP is 265.0, and fantasy managers looking to target a young, high-upside pitcher who gets a lot of swings and misses should add him to their target list of players toward the later part of drafts.

Heston Kjerstad, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles outfielder Heston Kjerstad crushes baseballs. In 2024, he hit 16 home runs in 280 plate appearances while slashing .303/.401/.584 with Norfolk. When he was with the big league club, he saw 114 plate appearances, putting together a .253/.351/.394 slash line with four home runs.

The biggest question for him is, due to the Orioles' loaded roster, where will he find playing time? Last year, the Orioles had Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, and Cedric Mullins. Although Santander was picked up in free agency by the Toronto Blue Jays this offseason, the Orioles brought in Tyler O'Neill, which begs to question: Will Kjerstad find a spot on the opening roster?

Entering spring training, Orioles general manager Mike Elias saw Kjerstad as a front-runner for this year's Opening Day roster spot.

"He has earned the right to get at-bats in the corner outfield and at designated hitter, especially against right-handed pitchers," Elias said.

Heston Kjerstad's first hit in the Majors is a homer! pic.twitter.com/utJ5U01G4v

— MLB (@MLB) September 16, 2023

Kjerstad's power is legit; the former second overall pick in 2020 had an average exit velocity on pulled fly balls of 100 mph. His contact skills are also solid enough to put up a respectable batting average. He could limit the strikeouts. During his time in the big leagues last year, he struck out at a 28.9 percent clip, but his ability to draw walks at an 8.8 percent clip in 2024 also showcases that pitchers aren't taking him lightly and pitching around him, trying to get him to chase.

According to NFBC, Kjerstad has a 326.0 ADP for a reason. If one domino falls his way and he keeps producing like he has proved in the minors, he could be a steal at this point in the draft. I'm willing to take that chance late in the draft, and so should you.

Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers outfielder Evan Carter was a huge bust in 2024, as he held a .188/.272/.361 line with five home runs, 15 RBI, 23 runs, and two stolen bases in 45 games. He was a popular pick after performing during the biggest stage in 2023 when a lot of eyes were on the World Series games, where he produced a .286/.348/.429 line in that series.

Carter also flashed his high upside during the 2023 regular season when he was called to the big leagues in September. During that time, he had 75 plate appearances, held a .306/.413/.645 line, and worked his way to the starting lineup for the remainder of the Rangers' World Series run.

Evan Carter sends one out! pic.twitter.com/eBmKYUswrA

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 27, 2024

Carter's 2024 season ended early on May 26; he had a stress reaction in his lower back, which sidelined him for the rest of the year. This back issue has been a chronic problem for Carter, but he is coming into the 2025 season healthy. According to FanGraphs, it is projecting Carter to bounce back and project him for a .240/.333/.397 line.

These are not necessarily eye-popping projections, but if Carter can regain most, if not all, of his 2023 stat line, he provides a lot of value at his current ADP of 269.0, according to NFBC. Carter has much to prove in 2025 to show he belongs in MLB, so I am willing to buy the dip on him.

Gavin Williams, SP, Cleveland Guardians

I spoke about Gavin Williams in a recent article on AL pitchers to target, but I feel the need to double-click on him.

Williams was a bust during the 2024 season. However, he is a former 2021 first-round pick with tremendous upside. He experienced right elbow inflammation early in the season, was placed on the 60-day IL, and missed most of the first half of the 2024 season.

When he returned in July, he made 16 starts, pitched 76 innings, and had a 4.86 ERA, 4.12 FIP, and 9.36 K/9. Williams was in the 11th percentile for hard-hit percentage and the fifth percentile for average exit velocity. Batters were squaring him up, and his ERA reflects that.

His four-seamer and changeup got rocked to the tune of a .288 and .417 average, respectively. In addition, he struggled to limit free passes, as he was in the 27th percentile for walk percentage. You can understand why it was a disappointing season for him when you get hit hard and allow free passes. The bottom line is that he did not live up to the 2024 hype.

However, Williams has flashed success in the past, specifically when he got called up in 2023 (82 innings pitched and a 3.29 ERA). He is healthy coming into the 2025 season, has looked good in spring training, and is primed to have a breakout season. Check out the video below.

Gavin Williams was unreal today:

2.1 IP 3 H 1 R 1 BB 6 K
15 whiffs 🔥🔥

I’m expecting a breakout year from him in 2025!
pic.twitter.com/6NS66ambAF

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) March 4, 2025

According to NFBC, his current ADP is 238.0, and he could provide fantasy managers with high upside late in drafts. Fantasy managers should add him to their target lists as they prepare for drafts.

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