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3 Fantasy Takeaways from the Derrick Rose Deal

The Knicks’ past is littered with the rotted corpses of atrocious trades.

J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert for Lou Amundson, Lance Thomas, and Alex Kirk. 1st round picks who turned into Joakim Noah and LaMarcus Aldridge for Eddy Curry. Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins for Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley. Trading for aging injury-prone players is simply the modus operandi of the New York Knicks.

That’s why, at first glance, their acquisition of Derrick Rose, Justin Holiday, and a 2017 2nd round pick for Robin Lopez, Jose Calderon, and Jerian Grant seems comical. It’s just another typical case of the Knicks being the Knicks, right? Not exactly.

Despite the NBA season ending less than a week ago, it is time to consider fantasy strategy for the 2016-17 campaign. The grind never stops, and the quest for that tidbit of fantasy knowledge that will lift you above your peers is never-ending. The Rose blockbuster deal has far-ranging fantasy implications, three of which will be detailed below.

 

1. Buy Low on Derrick Rose

The only basketball-related phenomenon that has been the butt of more jokes than Derrick Rose’s knees is the Crying Jordan meme. The 2008 NBA Rookie of the Year and 2011 MVP has only played 127 out of a possible 246 regular season games since suffering a devastating ACL injury in the 2012 playoffs. The initial tear and subsequent injuries have robbed Rose of a sizable portion of his once-astounding athleticism and explosiveness, marring the career trajectory of a superstar who only took three seasons to win his first MVP award. The basketball gods enacted their punishment for some unknown transgression, transforming the promising young star into a wily oft-injured vet.

Regardless of the toll exacted on Rose because of his injuries, he has still produced above-average fantasy numbers. Last season, he averaged 16.4 PPG, 4.7 APG, and 3.4 RPG on 42.7% shooting from the field. The 16.4 PPG (18.2 PPG after the all-star break) ranks him 38th in the league in PPG, a not-too-shabby ranking for a “washed-up” point guard. He might not be the same player he was in his MVP season, but he's no scrub.

Rose’s game has evolved to fit his current athletic ability. Instead of contorting himself in midair like an acrobat a lá his style of play in 2011, Rose relies on a steady diet of well-timed drives, floaters, and mid-range jumpers to score. His ability to penetrate, something the Knicks were sorely missing last season, will provide assist and scoring potential for Rose. His driving ability, coupled with the fact that he should have sole ball-handling responsibilities now that he is free of the possession-gobbling Jimmy Butler, may provide a spark for Rose’s fantasy production if he can remain injury free. Having teammates to pass to like Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis won't hurt, either.

 

2. Jimmy Butler is the sole star in Chicago, so draft high

Jimmy Butler had a breakout season last year in Chicago, averaging 20.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 4.8 APG on 45.4% shooting. His 36.9 MPG was good for third highest in the league, proving a coaching change from Tom Thibodeau to Fred Hoiberg would not dampen his minutes. Despite being among the league leaders in minutes per game, Butler’s usage rate of 24.4% was 45th in the league, behind the likes of teammates Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose (and Kristaps Porzingis, too, for anyone who may be wondering).

The replacement of Rose with some combination of Calderon, Grant, and whatever PG they can get in free agency or the draft almost guarantees that Butler’s offensive usage rate will skyrocket. None of the likely point guards for the Bulls this year will have the stature to refuse Butler the touches he craves, and none will be as offensively gifted as Rose. Expect Butler’s 20.9 PPG and 4.7 APG to rise, and don’t be afraid to draft him earlier than you think you should.

 

3. Kristaps Porzingis will be a fantasy monster

The critics say ‘sophomore slump.’ I say ‘sophomore sensation.’ Kristaps Porzingis, the 20 year old Latvian “unicorn,” managed to thrive last season without a bona fide point guard. A mixture of Melo, Langston Galloway and Jose Calderon as primary ball-handler proved mediocre at best for the woeful Knicks. The Knicks’ ball distribution was so bad, in fact, that the notorious ball-hog Carmelo Anthony actually led the Knicks with 4.2 assists per game (yes, he changed his selfish ways, but 4.2 APG is still way too low for a team’s assist leader). The addition of Derrick Rose should open up the floor for Porzingis now that the opposition actually has to worry about the threat of constant dribble penetration from a guard.

Regardless of the Rose acquisition, Porzingis was going to produce better stats owing to certain improvement from his rookie season. Barring any major injury or unforeseen development, last year’s stat-line of 14.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and 1.9 BPG will be bolstered as the Porzingod grows into his gangly frame and grows more comfortable with the NBA lifestyle. Teaming up with a real point guard will only accelerate the process.

 

3.5. Jose Calderon, Jerian Grant, and Justin Holiday are still not worthy of fantasy consideration

Just some extra advice for y’all: Jose Calderon, Jerian Grant, and Justin Holiday are not worthy of fantasy consideration except in extremely deep leagues. Emphasis on ‘Extremely.’ Also, Robin Lopez will remain a solid, if mediocre, fantasy center and should continue to put up roughly 10 PPG and 7 RPG, especially if the Bulls let Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol walk, as it appears they will do.

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