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Some hit the ground running, others come into their prime over time. I believe the term is "late bloomer."
After all, 2022 MLB batting champion Jeff McNeil didn't qualify as a big-league hitter until the age of 27. Entering his age-31 season, he's played just 516 career MLB games. Arizona's Christian Walker hit 36 home runs at the age of 31 last season, but he didn't get a full big-league campaign under his belt until he was 28. Taylor Ward's 137 wRC+ last season shocked the baseball world, also at the age of 28.
Sometimes the path to stardom is far from linear. Injuries, confidence, and situation are just a few reasons why it takes some players longer than others to approach their ceiling. With that in mind, let's look at three hitters who could break out after the typical prime production seasons.
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Christian Bethancourt, C, Tampa Bay Rays
Age-31 season
Christian Bethancourt is going to be in a timeshare with fellow backstop Francisco Mejia behind the dish for the Rays, but don't be shocked if the 31-year-old Bethancourt outduels his 27-year-old counterpart.
A former top prospect from his time in the Atlanta Braves organization, Bethancourt's path to solid MLB playing time has been all over the place but has led him to the organization best served to give a player a second, third, or fourth chance. Bethancourt spent time with both the Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays in the 2022 season but ended up having a career year when almost everybody counted him out.
Between the two clubs, Bethancourt notched career highs in almost every category imaginable. His 101 games played blew by his previous career-high of 73 from way back in the 2016 season with the Padres when he was even considering pitching. It's what he did with those 101 games and 333 plate appearances that matter most.
Bethancourt's bat was a hair above league average with a 101 wRC+ while he also graded out quite well defensively as per both FanGraphs and Statcast. That's a solid start. However, let's look at how he did relative to his peers in the stats we don't see on our television screens as much as we should. The idea is to keep your eye on the '2022' and 'MLB' rows.
Bethancourt nearly doubled the league average in barrel rate, far exceeded it in the hard-hit department, and ranked in the league's 91st percentile in max exit velocity. The latter is the lone offensive category Bethancourt registered for on Statcast's percentile metrics.
In other words, he hit the ball extremely hard with plenty of barrels. Given a 333 plate-appearance sample size, it appears legitimate.
Add in the fact that Bethancourt was the superior defender to Mejia -- a feature favored by the Rays -- and the 31-year-old could use his additional playing time to provide a breakout season well past his perceived prime.
Trayce Thompson,OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age-32 season
You could make an argument that Trayce Thompson broke out in the 2022 season across 80 games with the Padres and Dodgers, but considering he appears to be the Dodgers' Opening Day center fielder, an increase in reps could lead to some gaudy numbers.
It's been a whirlwind path to an Opening Day spot on the best team in baseball. As a 24-year-old rookie in 2015, Thompson posted a .896 OPS and 146 wRC+ across 44 games that seemingly set the stage for a fruitful career. However, Thompson would appear in just 158 games over the next three seasons and didn't appear in the big leagues at all between the 2019 and 2020 campaigns.
Following a wildly productive 15-game stint with the Cubs in 2021, Thompson found his way back to the highest level last season. He hit 13 home runs with four stolen bases, 41 RBI, a .860 OPS, and 142 wRC+ across 255 trips to the plate, all but 16 of which came with Los Angeles. His .374 BABIP from a season ago is unsustainable, but his .366 xwOBA was only narrowly below his .370 actual wOBA.
As was done with Bethancourt, let's take a look at Thompson's batted-ball data relative to his peers.
Thompson obliterated the league average in key areas such as barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, and so on. His career barrel rate is exceptional as he's hit 17 HR across his last 290 plate appearances spanning the last two seasons.
One obvious knock on Thompson is a sky-high 30.6% K% that includes a massive 36.5% mark from a season ago. He also generated walks at a healthy 12.5% rate, but Thompson is going to need to cut down on the punchouts if he wants to remain the club's primary center fielder.
Despite his swing-and-miss tendencies, Thompson's bat was 42% more productive than the league average, as per wRC+. It was only a half-season sample size, but the underlying data suggests he deserved every bit of his surge after being acquired by the Dodgers. Couple that with a steep increase in playing time, and Thompson is a player that could have a career year at the age of 32.
Harrison Bader, OF, New York Yankees
Age-29 season
Harrison Bader has hit 12 or more home runs and stolen 11 or more bases three times in his career. He hit 16 HR with nine SB and a 110 wRC+ as recently as the 2021 season, but Bader could be in for his biggest season yet at age 29.
The 2015 third-round pick was traded from the Cardinals to the Yankees at the 2021 trade deadline and he didn't exactly excel with a .528 OPS across 49 plate appearances in his new digs. All told, Bader hit .250 with five HR, 17 SB, 38 runs, 30 RBI, and a disappointing 86 wRC+ in 2022. However, a big opportunity awaits in the Bronx in 2023.
Bader is being trusted with the everyday center field job in New York with Steamer projecting 525 plate appearances for this season, a mark that shatters his previous career-high of 427 from back in the 2018 campaign. In itself, the additional playing time should absolutely lead to a significant increase in roto stats while he should be able to deliver a nice power/speed combination in the process.
Unlike the two names listed above, Bader's previous season isn't an indication a breakout is looming, as you can clearly tell.
His barrel rate and hard-hit rate from a season ago fell well below the MLB average, as did a variety of other categories. However, if we can put 2022 aside for a moment, Bader has barreled the ball up well in previous seasons, exceeding the 2022 league average in each season leading up to 2022.
He owns a lukewarm 7.8% career BB%, but one thing Bader did well in 2022 was cut down on the strikeouts all the way to a 19.8% clip, miles below his 25.7% career mark. He did this despite swinging at the most pitches outside of the zone (37.3%) in his career; however, he also made contact on 79.1% of his swings, a career-best.
Is Bader going to play with the big boys in the top tier of outfielders? Not likely. However, he's going to get everyday reps as part of a Yankees lineup that ranked second in baseball with 807 runs scored in 2022. That is a great start for his counting stats and his 92nd percentile in sprint speed from last season should ensure plenty of stolen bases as well. Don't be surprised to see Bader enjoy his first 20-SB season in 2023 with 30 swipes not out of the conversation.
For fantasy purposes, Bader is an attractive asset approaching the 2023 campaign. In reality, he's likely to enjoy a breakout season at the age of 29.
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