X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

3 Hitters About to Breakout Later Than Their Prime for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Harrison Bader - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Brenton analyzes 3 fantasy baseball hitters who could breakout much later than their prime in the 2023 MLB season.

Some hit the ground running, others come into their prime over time. I believe the term is "late bloomer."

After all, 2022 MLB batting champion Jeff McNeil didn't qualify as a big-league hitter until the age of 27. Entering his age-31 season, he's played just 516 career MLB games. Arizona's Christian Walker hit 36 home runs at the age of 31 last season, but he didn't get a full big-league campaign under his belt until he was 28. Taylor Ward's 137 wRC+ last season shocked the baseball world, also at the age of 28.

Sometimes the path to stardom is far from linear. Injuries, confidence, and situation are just a few reasons why it takes some players longer than others to approach their ceiling. With that in mind, let's look at three hitters who could break out after the typical prime production seasons.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Christian Bethancourt, C, Tampa Bay Rays

Age-31 season

Christian Bethancourt is going to be in a timeshare with fellow backstop Francisco Mejia behind the dish for the Rays, but don't be shocked if the 31-year-old Bethancourt outduels his 27-year-old counterpart.

A former top prospect from his time in the Atlanta Braves organization, Bethancourt's path to solid MLB playing time has been all over the place but has led him to the organization best served to give a player a second, third, or fourth chance. Bethancourt spent time with both the Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays in the 2022 season but ended up having a career year when almost everybody counted him out.

Between the two clubs, Bethancourt notched career highs in almost every category imaginable. His 101 games played blew by his previous career-high of 73 from way back in the 2016 season with the Padres when he was even considering pitching. It's what he did with those 101 games and 333 plate appearances that matter most.

Bethancourt's bat was a hair above league average with a 101 wRC+ while he also graded out quite well defensively as per both FanGraphs and Statcast. That's a solid start. However, let's look at how he did relative to his peers in the stats we don't see on our television screens as much as we should. The idea is to keep your eye on the '2022' and 'MLB' rows.

Bethancourt nearly doubled the league average in barrel rate, far exceeded it in the hard-hit department, and ranked in the league's 91st percentile in max exit velocity. The latter is the lone offensive category Bethancourt registered for on Statcast's percentile metrics.

In other words, he hit the ball extremely hard with plenty of barrels. Given a 333 plate-appearance sample size, it appears legitimate.

Add in the fact that Bethancourt was the superior defender to Mejia -- a feature favored by the Rays -- and the 31-year-old could use his additional playing time to provide a breakout season well past his perceived prime.

 

Trayce Thompson,OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Age-32 season

You could make an argument that Trayce Thompson broke out in the 2022 season across 80 games with the Padres and Dodgers, but considering he appears to be the Dodgers' Opening Day center fielder, an increase in reps could lead to some gaudy numbers.

It's been a whirlwind path to an Opening Day spot on the best team in baseball. As a 24-year-old rookie in 2015, Thompson posted a .896 OPS and 146 wRC+ across 44 games that seemingly set the stage for a fruitful career. However, Thompson would appear in just 158 games over the next three seasons and didn't appear in the big leagues at all between the 2019 and 2020 campaigns.

Following a wildly productive 15-game stint with the Cubs in 2021, Thompson found his way back to the highest level last season. He hit 13 home runs with four stolen bases, 41 RBI, a .860 OPS, and 142 wRC+ across 255 trips to the plate, all but 16 of which came with Los Angeles. His .374 BABIP from a season ago is unsustainable, but his .366 xwOBA was only narrowly below his .370 actual wOBA.

As was done with Bethancourt, let's take a look at Thompson's batted-ball data relative to his peers.

Thompson obliterated the league average in key areas such as barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, and so on. His career barrel rate is exceptional as he's hit 17 HR across his last 290 plate appearances spanning the last two seasons.

One obvious knock on Thompson is a sky-high 30.6% K% that includes a massive 36.5% mark from a season ago. He also generated walks at a healthy 12.5% rate, but Thompson is going to need to cut down on the punchouts if he wants to remain the club's primary center fielder.

Despite his swing-and-miss tendencies, Thompson's bat was 42% more productive than the league average, as per wRC+. It was only a half-season sample size, but the underlying data suggests he deserved every bit of his surge after being acquired by the Dodgers. Couple that with a steep increase in playing time, and Thompson is a player that could have a career year at the age of 32.

 

Harrison Bader, OF, New York Yankees

Age-29 season

Harrison Bader has hit 12 or more home runs and stolen 11 or more bases three times in his career. He hit 16 HR with nine SB and a 110 wRC+ as recently as the 2021 season, but Bader could be in for his biggest season yet at age 29.

The 2015 third-round pick was traded from the Cardinals to the Yankees at the 2021 trade deadline and he didn't exactly excel with a .528 OPS across 49 plate appearances in his new digs. All told, Bader hit .250 with five HR, 17 SB, 38 runs, 30 RBI, and a disappointing 86 wRC+ in 2022. However, a big opportunity awaits in the Bronx in 2023.

Bader is being trusted with the everyday center field job in New York with Steamer projecting 525 plate appearances for this season, a mark that shatters his previous career-high of 427 from back in the 2018 campaign. In itself, the additional playing time should absolutely lead to a significant increase in roto stats while he should be able to deliver a nice power/speed combination in the process.

Unlike the two names listed above, Bader's previous season isn't an indication a breakout is looming, as you can clearly tell.

His barrel rate and hard-hit rate from a season ago fell well below the MLB average, as did a variety of other categories. However, if we can put 2022 aside for a moment, Bader has barreled the ball up well in previous seasons, exceeding the 2022 league average in each season leading up to 2022.

He owns a lukewarm 7.8% career BB%, but one thing Bader did well in 2022 was cut down on the strikeouts all the way to a 19.8% clip, miles below his 25.7% career mark. He did this despite swinging at the most pitches outside of the zone (37.3%) in his career; however, he also made contact on 79.1% of his swings, a career-best.

Is Bader going to play with the big boys in the top tier of outfielders? Not likely. However, he's going to get everyday reps as part of a Yankees lineup that ranked second in baseball with 807 runs scored in 2022. That is a great start for his counting stats and his 92nd percentile in sprint speed from last season should ensure plenty of stolen bases as well. Don't be surprised to see Bader enjoy his first 20-SB season in 2023 with 30 swipes not out of the conversation.

For fantasy purposes, Bader is an attractive asset approaching the 2023 campaign. In reality, he's likely to enjoy a breakout season at the age of 29.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3

Tyler Shough Could Come Off The Board Before Shedeur Sanders
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Isaiah Spiller

Raiders Waive Isaiah Spiller
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
NFL

Several Teams Trying To Trade Up Early In Round 2

Bhayshul Tuten Could Be A Third-Round Pick
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Cleveland Browns

Browns Fielding Calls For First Pick In Round 2
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
George Pickens

Steelers Receiving Calls About George Pickens
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Ryan Weathers

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Sunday
Colby Thomas

Heating Up At Triple-A
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Don't Feel Forced To Draft A Running Back
Emmanuel Rodriguez

Has Quiet Start To 2025
Jeff McNeil

Hitting Eighth In Season Debut
Brandon Sproat

Coughs Up Six Earned Runs In Latest Start
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez To Start Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Bailey Falter

Good To Go To Start On Sunday Against Dodgers
Will Levis

Could Be Traded Soon
Bryce Young

Wanted Panthers To Take Tetairoa McMillan
Travis Hunter

Jaguars Plan To Start Travis Hunter In The Receiver Room
Detroit Lions

Lions Pick Up Aidan Hutchinson's Fifth-Year Option
Jameson Williams

Lions Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF