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The 2025 NFL Draft is nearing, and although the group of rookie quarterbacks coming in isn't viewed as one of the best we've seen as of late, at least two or three signal callers will carry some fantasy football value. In single-QB setups, none of this year's quarterbacks are slam dunks, but any starter is worth targeting in deeper setups.
Colorado's Shedeuer Sanders, Miami's Cam Ward, Alabama's Jalen Milroe, and Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart appear to be the consensus top four signal callers in the class of 2025. Will any of them have immediate or long-term fantasy value?
Below, we'll dive into the dynasty fantasy football rookie draft outlooks for each of the four top QBs.
Shedeur Sanders Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook
Sanders is a risky pick in Round 1 of single-QB leagues. He can't deal with pressure. You can't succeed in the NFL as a quarterback if you can't deal with pressure.
Elite NFL QBs (EPA per play >0.1) had low Pressure-to-Sack rate in college. Out of the 14 QBs with EPA per play >0.1 since 2015, 13 of them had sack rates <20% (only Daniels broke that at 20.2%) in college.
The ability to avoid sacks is critical to NFL QB play.… pic.twitter.com/mEhgtNWMEF
— Analytic Football (@analyticballer) February 5, 2025
For starters, let's dispel the myth that taking sacks doesn't matter. Pressure to sack rate is the best predictor of NFL success for quarterbacks. Having a low P2S doesn't make you automatically succeed in the NFL, but QBs with a bad rate almost always fail. There have been a select few exceptions, as always.
Sanders is in the 20 percent range, which is very bad. Many will point to Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels 20+ number as proof that it's irrelevant, but Daniels is far more athletic than Sanders, and it's much more rewarding for him to risk sacks if he hangs back for longer and waits for rushing lanes to open up or for a WR to get open.
And in Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow's case, he intentionally waits for bigger plays and makes up for his sacks easily. The vast majority of QBs are simply not good enough to do this, and Sanders is part of a weak class. Burrow was the best QB prospect in a long time, and Daniels won the Heisman trophy and was an elite runner. Sanders is neither of these things. There are plenty of red flags in his prospect profile.
Cam Ward Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook
Cam Ward is very inconsistent, and it's rightful to get nervous about quarterbacks whose best traits are their improvisational skills. In the NFL, quarterbacks usually fail if they can't play within structure and struggle if they find it hard to play within structure or try to improvise when they should be standing tall in the pocket and delivering.
Cam Ward has flaws that prevent him from being an elite QB prospect, summarized by these three clips:
• Holds onto the ball and loses the game with a turnover on 2nd down
• Takes an awful sack after hesitating to hit his wide open read
• This one is self-explanatory… pic.twitter.com/dy2gE38QdK— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) February 4, 2025
It's interesting that Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams was easily viewed as a better prospect than Ward yet displayed some of the same deficiencies -- holding on to the ball too long, being chief among them. That's an absolute killer in the NFL. Defenses feast on QBs that can't or don't play with good timing. Concerns aside, he's worth a pick in the middle of Round 2, assuming he's taken in the top five of the "real" NFL Draft.
His style of quarterback play has failed many times in the NFL, but there are success stories.
Jalen Milroe Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook
Milroe is not an above-average passer. He probably won't succeed in the NFL because of this. He's not a good decision-maker, and while he has some solid wheels, his regression in 2024 exposed many of his flaws. Poor pocket awareness, bad decisions, and inaccuracy will make life brutal for him at the next level. His rushing upside makes him worth picking at some point in rookie drafts, though.
Since he's likely to begin his career as a backup, aim to pick him no earlier than the middle of Round 3.
Jaxson Dart Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook
Dart is my QB1 in this year's class. He's been underrated, like many other players, for reasons that are tough to wrap one's head fully around. He had great production, led an excellent offense, and did so without his WR1 for much of last season.
QB draft prospects when blitzed during their final college season pic.twitter.com/1b6u8tbeAm
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) February 4, 2025
His absurd 12.4 yards per pass attempt against the blitz and 92.8 PFF grade both lead all quarterbacks over the last two seasons. He's clearly shown that he can handle pressure. Ward and Sanders have shown that they cannot. And not being able to deal with pressure is a tough thing for an NFL quarterback to overcome. Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold proved that to us in his final two games this season.
Dart could be the best QB in this year's draft. It's a weak class, but he's still a great value in Round 3.
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