2024 U.S. Open Course Preview and Breakdown - Pinehurst No. 2

After a season that has featured several disappointing golf courses and tournament setups, be prepared for Pinehurst No. 2 to blow you away! A true masterpiece of American golf course architecture built amongst the sandhills and natural terrain of North Carolina, Pinehurst No. 2 is primed to challenge, test, and possibly frustrate the best players in the world on a golf course that opened in the 1800s.

This will be the tournament that we remember from 2024 and I have combed through historical data and as many articles as I could to bring you a complete course breakdown for the 2024 United States Open Championship.

I wanted to use this piece to hopefully highlight a few different angles and elements that may be less spoken about to provide some value in this course preview. I'm hopeful that you can utilize this for building lineups and making your stat models to provide you with the best possible chances of success this week. This tournament typically brings dramatic finishes and has a unique way of producing great leaderboards due to the nature of course conditions and setup. Let's dive into Muirfield Village, my favorite course on Tour.

An Introduction to the Pinehurst No. 2

Let's begin with Donald Ross, who was hired in 1900 and tasked with designing and upkeeping the No. 2 course at Pinehurst. He started with a nine-hole design but eventually finished all 18 holes and opened the course for public play in 1908. Ross grew up in Dornoch, Scotland on links golf courses where he first discovered and implemented his famed crowned green technique that have called the "turtleback." He wanted to bring the traditional links golf design concept with challenging greens and drop it within the tall southern pines of North Carolina.

The true beauty of this golf course lies in its naturalness. The course looks like it has been there since the beginning of time. The bunkers look crafted by the hands of Mother Nature, rather than a bulldozer. Water comes into play on one hole, but won't be in play whatsoever for the professionals. There is no rough, only natural sand areas and patchy wire grass that introduces a randomness to errant shot outcomes. The course is not big-boy long and a lost golf ball will be an extremely rare occurrence. Yet, any golfer in the field would happily sign for a round under par. It's perfect!

In 2011, ahead of the 2014 U.S. Open, the world-renowned team of Coore and Crenshaw began a massive restoration by utilizing photos from the early 1900s. They effectively removed as much fairway and rough as possible, reimagining the natural sandhills and native plants surrounding the fairways to make it look more like the original design. They made the greens larger in size and scraped down the outer edges to restore the turtleback style that Ross deployed as the course's biggest defense mechanism. Get ready to settle into that spot on the couch that you don't easily get up from!

Our Pinehurst No. 2 video is the latest of our major championship previews. We’re very proud with how this one turned out and hope you enjoy it as much as we do.

Watch now on YouTube: https://t.co/CHpnkJNcbQ pic.twitter.com/JTZEMN0SKI

— Fried Egg Golf (@fried_egg_golf) June 5, 2024

Scorecard:

Anticipated yardage per hole from USGA (Subject to change*)

Course Specs

When you look at the total yardage, while not pushing the limits on distance like we have seen at recent U.S. Open venues, Pinehurst is still incredibly long. The course sits at very little elevation and is not astonishingly bold in terms of movement. Players will face eight par 4's that are over 470 yards with half of them stretching beyond 500 yards. I expect distance and power to be at a premium around Pinehurst, which is what we have come to expect at a U.S. Open.

We have seen a number of courses recently where relatively benign and wide fairways have mitigated the demand for total driving. Pinehurst is not that. Coore and Crenshaw restored the fairways with subtle movement and awkward angles to effectively create much smaller targets if you want regularly hit fairways. The conditions are expected to be ultra-firm and fast, which increases the importance of shot shaping and proper trajectory to keep the ball from rolling into the sandy areas and wire grass patches that protect the perimeters.

All that said, Pinehurst No. 2 is all about the greens. They've been crafted by sorcery to mimic an upside-down bowl shape that makes them impossible to hold without the correct line, speed, and angle. Errant shots will run into short-grass surroundings that will provide players with options, but none of them are easy. In 2014, players were only able to hit the green 56% of the time despite hitting 70% of fairways on average. Get familiar with watching your players scrambling for par.

The greens are large and fast. Beyond the size, intricate slopes that are tough to read protect hole locations and make lag putting from distance extremely difficult. “In general, the greens are fairly large,” said Coore. “But they play extraordinarily small with those fall-offs on the edges. That is what makes them so demanding."

This will also be the first U.S. Open EVER with ultradwarf bermudagrass putting greens. The 2014 U.S. Open was played on bentgrass, but the course converted to Bermuda right after the U.S. Open to provide more consistent playing conditions year-round on a course that gets a ton of public play.

The challenge of switching grasses at Pinehurst No. 2. Conversion to bermudagrass greens from bentgrass has paid off, superintendent says.https://t.co/nlHORzXULN pic.twitter.com/KHYMTGGT15

— Turf And Recreation (@TurfandRec) February 3, 2022

Statistical Considerations

I'm envisioning carnage. The scoring average at the 2014 U.S. Open was +3 over par per round and I don't see it getting any easier 10 years later. You have to first filter nearly everything that you look at based on difficult scoring conditions as I believe this will be the most challenging tournament of the year. Looking at player data from a standard PGA Tour setup that ends with a winning score of -20 under par won't do you much good this week. Pinehurst is a different animal that requires patience, focus, and above anything else, precision.

Next, although it may be one of the toughest stats to predict, you have to place an emphasis on Around the Green play. The greens play significantly smaller than their total square footage and players are only able to hit the greens in regulations about half the time. I think it's important to only focus on the Around-The-Green data that matters.

Since there is essentially zero rough, if you can filter out the stats from courses with thick rough like Muirfield Village and Valhalla, then you will have a more predictive baseline. I'm looking at stats with players scrambling around the greens from either the fairway or short grass areas specifically.

It's strange, but we have really not seen many tournaments with bermudagrass greens all year. Most of the Florida and Texas courses have replaced the Bermuda with a Bent/POA blend. The ultradwarf version of Bermuda that is used by Pinehurst is a less thick blade of grass that produces a firm, tight surface to putt on. The grain is less of a factor, but you still have to take it into account anytime you are putting on Bermuda. They can get uber-slippery in the afternoons, which will only be magnified by the turtleback greens at Pinehurst. Factor in Bermuda Putting data over the last 24 rounds.

A few other data points that I am factoring into my model are Total Driving, SG: OTT Long Courses, Driving Accuracy, Greens in regulation percentage from 200+ yards, par 4 scoring from 450+ yards, and Bogey Avoidance. I can't wait for this event, and hopefully utilizing some of this data will help put you in the best possible position to project a deserving winner.

"If you want to know a man, take him to the golf course." - Donald Ross

"If you want to challenge a pro, take him to Pinehurst." - Me

One week until we tee off at @PinehurstResort ⏳ pic.twitter.com/yuBRkjbSkh

— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 6, 2024

Good luck and enjoy the 2024 U.S. Open and one of the marvels of American golf, Pinehurst!

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