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TourPicks ranks his top-10 players to watch for at the 2024 U.S. Open Championship held at historic Pinehurst Resort. Here are players you need to look out for with the best chance to win!
The summer of golf is primed and ready for its headlining act, the 124th U.S. Open Championship held at Pinehurst Resort in North Carolina. The best players in the world from various tours will descend upon the sandhills and Southern Pines of North Carolina to take on a course that is projected to be the most difficult examination of golf for the 2024 season.
The scoring will be uber-difficult as Pinehurst has a way of testing professional players throughout its history that is often unparalleled by other great American golf courses.
As always with this article, my primary goal is to provide a place to start your research and preparation for the incoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field to project course fits and past results in team golf formats. This will give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping this unique event. Here are my top-10 players to watch out for and a brief write-up of my reasons why. Welcome to U.S. Open week!
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No. 10 - Keegan Bradley
Here is one that may throw you for a loop to start. I'm ranking Keegan Bradley inside my Top-10 Power Rankings for the U.S. Open. Byron and I spoke extensively on the RotoBaller PGA Show last week about the unbelievable nature and prowess of Bradley's off-the-tee stats lately. He's been lapping the field with his Driver over his last handful of PGA Tour starts and carries a unique blend of power and accuracy that should set up perfectly for a course like Pinehurst.
He's been a much-improved putter and chipper this season, which should pair nicely with his ability to consistently hit greens in regulation from 200+ yards away. Despite Pinehurst not being a brute like we have seen in recent years, 7,500+ yards for a par 70 is still a very long golf course. I have roughly 50% of all approach shots projected to come from 175+ yards next week. Bradley ranks sixth in the field from that range. Finally, if you want to go back 10 years to the 2014 U.S. Open held at Pinehurst, Bradley finished in a tie for fourth place.
No. 9 - Cameron Smith
Imagination. Touch. Guts. All are attributes possessed by Cameron Smith that should be highly rewarded at a course like Pinehurst. The short-grass areas that surround the turtleback greens are going to give players fits. You will have to be able to navigate your way up and down for par often. The greens in regulation rate from the last time we saw a U.S. Open at Pinehurst was barely above 50%. This plays right into the hands of a player like Smith.
The short grass provides him the ability to separate from the field with his elite hands and touch around the greens. He stays committed, and chips in as often as anybody. I have major concerns about the driver, but ultimately the harder the golf course plays, the more it favors a player like Smith. He's one of the few players on the planet that can go nuclear while the rest of the field is struggling and frustrated. U.S. Open events are rarely going to set up well for Smith, but this may be his best chance at taking one down.
What a touch 🤌
Cam Smith doing what he does best around the greens ⛳️#LIVGolf @rippergc_ pic.twitter.com/3ZxuE1Lw3s
— LIV Golf (@livgolf_league) June 7, 2024
No. 8 - Viktor Hovland
He's supremely talented and uniquely gifted. He also may be getting his mojo back just in time for another midsummer run. I'm talking about Viktor Hovland. Hovland has three top-20 finishes in his last four starts at the U.S. Open and should get a big boost this week by putting on his best surface, Bermudagrass. He's gained significant strokes on the field on approach in his last three starts since reuniting with his swing coach from last season, Joe Mayo.
Do I worry about Hovland getting exposed on the short grass with his sometimes clunky chipping? Of course. That said, the thing with Hovland has always been that when he wins, it doesn't matter. He dismantles the field from tee to green and pounds enough greens in regulation that his lackluster chipping doesn't hurt him. If you are a believer that he is right back to being a top-five player in the world, why not take a chance on him to win his first major championship at Pinehurst?
No. 7 - Ludvig Aberg
He's an absolute assassin with the driver. He's one of the best in the world swinging the big stick. Ludvig Aberg is set to play in his very first U.S. Open and oddsmakers have priced him around 20/1, a ludicrous number for a player who has never faced the challenge that is a USGA Championship. Aberg ranks third in the field in strokes gained off-the-tee over the last 30 rounds played. He's aggressive, but also quite calculated and has a great caddie alongside him carrying the bag with a ton of experience in Joe Skovron.
Skovron helped guide Rickie Fowler to a T2 here in the 2014 U.S. Open. I believe he deserves a ton of credit for his work with Aberg. He ranks fourth in the field in bogey avoidance in tough scoring conditions, an attribute not normally associated with such a young player. The big question mark for Aberg this week will be his health, as it has been reported that he's dealing with a knee injury that has put a speed bump on his preparation.
Per @ToddLewisGC , Ludvig Aberg is dealing with a partially torn meniscus in his left knee that he injured while lifting
— Joe I (@TourPicks) June 7, 2024
No. 6 - Brooks Koepka
In his last four major championships, Brooks Koepka has failed to finish better than 17th. It's a perplexing stat for Koepka, who once felt like an automatic bet for a top-10 finish anytime the best in the world got together for a major. Koepka has been driving it pretty well this season, gaining strokes at most LIV events and at both major championships to start the 2024 season. It's his approach play and the putter that has been keeping him from Sunday contention.
He switched to a mallet-style putter right before Augusta National and just has not passed the eyeball test ever since. This is coming from someone who is keenly aware and clued into everything Koepka. His touch and hands around the greens are an underrated part of his game for being such a power player. Koepka thrives under difficult conditions and maintains his cool in circumstances that seem to frustrate other players on their way to ejecting in majors. Maybe Pinehurst is just what the doctor ordered to get Koepka back on track! I'm here for it!
No. 5 - Bryson DeChambeau
Checking in one spot ahead of his fellow LIV-compadre Brooks Koepka, we have the runner-up from the PGA Championship and former 2020 U.S. Open champion, Bryson DeChambeau. Albeit, this is a vastly different course setup than the one we saw him take apart in New York at Winged Foot. DeChambeau just always seems to be improving, constantly taking weaknesses in his game and working on them incessantly until they become reliable strengths.
That's been the case with his around-the-green game. Previously an awkward weakness, likely due to his abnormally long wedges, DeChambeau has turned himself into an excellent chipper over the past year. He'll be the unquestioned longest player off the tee in the field, and while that is not a stat that I am heavily emphasizing this week, size always matters! He's in terrific form and is uber-confident in his game and his ability. Pinehurst will test your mental acumen for golf, and not many are as well suited as DeChambeau to make adjustments on the fly.
Bryson Dechambeau explaining how he adjusts for the speed on the greens was really interesting to listen to. @TeeTimesPub
— Tour Pro 🏌️♂️ (@OfficialTourPro) June 3, 2024
No. 4 - Rory McIlroy
I know, I know. He's playing great, right? He's the second favorite on the oddsboard and for good reason. Yet, I'm not entirely sold on the chance of Rory McIlroy at a golf course like Pinehurst No. 2. He's still dealing with a bit of "the pulls," often yanking his long irons to the left of the green. He ranks No. 42 in the field in strokes gained approach on shots from 160-225 yards, a range that I believe the majority of all approach shots will come from this week.
The fairways are somewhat generous, but canted and angled to effectively make them more narrow. I think this mitigates the distance advantage of a player like McIlroy. All this said, he ranks second in the field in terms of strokes gained: tee-to-green in the United States majors held over the past two seasons. He seems to get along with tough scoring conditions, and when he gets that bounce in his step, he's hard to stop. It wouldn't surprise anybody if he won next week, but there are three players that I feel are better suited to take home the trophy!
No. 3 - Collin Morikawa
Alright friends, Collin Morikawa is fully back. I was reluctant to believe, but the proof is in the pudding. He's been in a tremendous amount of final pairings over the last six weeks and appears to be only a few putts dropping in the hole away from winning again after a long hiatus. Morikawa has performed admirably in the U.S. Opens over his career, and I feel like Pinehurst may be the best setup to date for him. He can lean on his driving accuracy and is actually quite adept at chipping from Bermuda Short Grass.
Playing from the fairways will give you the best opportunity to hold these greens, especially since we expect the conditions to be fully "baked out" and firm given the early weather. Morikawa is in a groove and will look to continue his run at Pinehurst. The improvement with his irons has been steady, and you can see the confidence continuing to build with each swing.
The iron game continues to improve for @Collin_Morikawa 💯
He moves to T3 after a birdie on No. 3 @MemorialGolf. pic.twitter.com/ZKJ3YWGker
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 7, 2024
No. 2 - Xander Schauffele
It's been a roller coaster of a month for Xander Schauffele after capturing the most recent major championship when he came through in the clutch at Valhalla. He showed some signs of rust at Muirfield Village from tee to green after three weeks off to enjoy his first major but still managed to finish inside the top 10 in classic Schauffele fashion. If it weren't for a historic year from Scottie Scheffler, we'd be talking more about the amazing and consistent season that Schauffele is somewhat quietly putting together.
He putted the lights out at the Memorial, which certainly aided in his final result. Schauffele gained nearly eight strokes putting in what was statistically the second-best putting week he has ever had in his career. Is that repeatable? We know it's not but it likely doesn't have to be. If he can get himself back on track with his irons, continuing to leverage his elite ability from 175+ yards, then there is no doubt he is the leading favorite in the "No-Scheffler markets." Imagine the triumph of Schauffele winning back-to-back majors after hearing all the criticism on his finishing ability for years.
No. 1 - Scottie Scheffler
Astonishing. Unbelievable. Outrageous. But most of all, inevitable. Scottie Scheffler has already cemented his 2024 season as one of the greatest of all time and we're not even to midsummer yet. He'll take his beaming confidence and untouchable form to the sandhills of North Carolina on yet another golf course that will accentuate his strengths and allow him to separate from the rest of the field.
There's not much else to say about Scheffler at this point. The results do all the talking. If he manages to win the U.S. Open, we'll all be left to wonder what could have been if not for an overzealous "boy in blue" in Kentucky.
His performances have been surgical and he's playing a different game from his peers from a ball-striking standpoint. They fear him, and they should. He's yet again coming from another trophy at Pinehurst, attempting to stack his sixth one on the shelf this season. It's a who's who of tournaments and status, and he's primed to add another.
Scottie Scheffler’s wins this year:
Arnold Palmer
Players
Masters
Heritage
MemorialThat’s 5 big time wins and on a variety of golf courses. It’s hard to put into words just how good he is!
— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) June 9, 2024
Enjoy the U.S. Open and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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