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Joe Idone's @TourPicks Exclusive Course Preview and Breakdown for the 2024 PLAYERS Championship. Course preview analysis the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass for this week's PGA Tour event to prep for PGA DFS lineups and golf betting strategy.
Hello and welcome to my official course and tournament preview piece for the 2024 PLAYERS Championship held once again at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL. The goal each week is to provide a comprehensive and in-depth look at the specs of the golf course to help you best understand historical trends and stat profiles that have proven to be indicators of success at this tournament in the past. The golf course is the ever-changing variable week to week on the PGA Tour and it is pivotal to understand the specs in great detail while researching the tournament.
We have a solid amount of data and course analytics to properly make some assessments regarding advantageous player skill sets and course setup specifics. One thing we know for certain at TPC Sawgrass, the volatility and randomness brought about due to the difficulty and penalty for a modest miss make this event in particular one of the toughest to predict. That said, there are certain elements we can cling to as legitimate indicators of success and we will do our best to break all that down and more in this article! Welcome to the 50th anniversary of The PLAYERS!
An Introduction to the Course
We have a field comprised of 144 of the best players on the PGA Tour set to tackle the unmistakable TPC Sawgrass for their chance at capturing a piece of the 25-million-dollar purse, the largest in professional golf. The Stadium course at TPC Sawgrass was the culmination and peak of golf course architecture by the great Pete Dye, originally built in 1980. The course was designed with the intention of hosting the best in professional golf and providing a viewing experience for the fans like none other.
The golf course has experienced evolution over the years since it's inception with the most notable work taking place back in 2016, once again at the hands of the Dye group with consultation from Steve Wenzloff. The turf conditions are as lush and green as you will see all year, presenting a picture-perfect course built for television. When it was originally built, TPC Sawgrass was rugged with waste areas and naturally occurring hazards, but has since become a pristinely landscaped masterpiece with pops of color from the overseeded grass and floral arrangements.
The biggest change in the relationship between the golf course and this particular event came in 2019 when the tournament was moved from May to March on the PGA Tour schedule. They changed the grass and overseeded everything, making the course more lush and playable. The greens were switched to a POA Trivialis overseed which mitigates some of the grain and inconsistencies of Bermuda grass in Florida. At this point in the week, it looks like the weather will be perfect and I would not expect a single blade of grass out of place. This is the PGA Tour's crown jewel, and they treat it as such annually!
History will be made.#THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/MKIbZBtLAk
— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 11, 2024
Recent Winners
2023: Scottie Scheffler -17 : 10-1
2022: Cameron Smith -13 : 30/1
2021: Justin Thomas -14 : 20/1
2019: Rory McIlroy -16 : 14/1
2018: Webb Simpson -18 : 100/1
The Scorecard - TPC Sawgrass
Course Specs
I would recommend taking all your notes about the golf course from prior to 2019 and throw them away. I know many of the players have. Since the move to March and the agronomical changes to the grass, the course plays remarkably differently. The current iteration is not nearly as firm and fast, and allows players to deploy Driver quite a bit more often from the teebox, and the receptiveness of the greens allows them to be moderately more aggressive when attempting to get close to some of the most difficult pin locations.
The defining element of TPC Sawgrass is the danger lurking everywhere that can turn even the smallest miss-step into complete disaster, and that element is of course the abundance of water. Water is technically in play on all 18 holes, and Pete Dye has created these weaving channels of water which are bordered by his customary railroad ties and ready to sink any balls that are not surgically precise.
The difference between a look at an eagle and scrambling for double bogey at TPC Sawgrass can be a few inches. It's the most harsh and penal course on Tour. That said, the course also can trick players into thinking they have very little room and must hit the perfect shot when in reality they have a lot more space than it may initially appear. This is part of the genius that is Pete Dye which was masterfully crafted at this course in particular.
The closing 3-holes is one of the best finishes stretches in all of golf. The Par-5 16th plays as the easiest hole on the course from a scoring average, but also has a massive amount of water in play so you can not relinquish full focus and attention. The island-green 17th is easily one of the most famous holes in professional golf. We will likely see a hole in one and several shots scare the cup, and we will also likely see someone make a massive number. The final 18th hole is the most difficult hole on the course and winds it way around the water from tee to green, requiring a slight draw off the tee with players just praying to get home in par before making their way back to the locker room.
18th Hole, TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, USA pic.twitter.com/vevaCAt6yN
— Great Golf Holes ⛳️ (@GreatGolfHoles) March 9, 2023
Statistical Considerations
I mentioned previously how difficult this event can be to prognosticate given the inherent volatility, but the one stat you can always rely on is the old trusty Stroke Gained Approach. The leaderboards have been completely dominated in recent years by players who have excelled for the week in approach play. In 2023, the top four players on the leaderboard all ranked inside the top-5 for the week in strokes gained approach. The correlation runs deep every year.
I would also look into greens in regulation percentage and potentially isolate percentages from difficult rough if you can. Last season, they changed the rough at TPC Sawgrass from 2.5 inches in height to 3.5 inches in height which made it play much more difficult from the rough. The importance of acquiring a proper yardage and then hitting it pin high is paramount around this course if you want to avoid the trouble that often stares you right in the face in front of the green and requires you to carry it on.
The increase in rough length also in turn makes hitting the fairways more important. The course is not long, nearly 40% of all approach shots come from with 150 yards of the green. Being able to control your spin and distance is significantly easier from the short grass so I would lean heavier on Driving Accuracy vs. Distance this week. I'm also looking into recent Around the Green stats for players as the difficulty level from some of the greenside bunkers and bail out areas are much tougher here than PGA Tour average.
I'm not putting a ton of eggs in the course history basket this week in terms of positive success, but I'm going to be reluctant to take players who have always struggled around TPC Sawgrass. Pete Dye is rather unique in his design philosophies and there is no doubt that this course in particular just does not suit certain players eyes.
Approach shot distribution from 2023 at TPC Sawgrass via Datagolf:
Stat Radar Plot at TPC Sawgrass via Datagolf:
Best Player Course Fit Rankings at TPC Sawgrass:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rory McIlroy
- Adam Scott
- Xander Schauffele
- Viktor Hovland
- Sahith Theegala
- Tom Hoge
- Keith Mitchell
- Aaron Rai
- Doug Ghim
*Based on last 36 rounds of player data.
In 1974, THE PLAYERS Championship was born.#THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/0Wway3hoFi
— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 11, 2024
