RADIO
Muirfield Village was the location of the first professional golf tournament I ever attended. The atmosphere, the stakes, and the course were part of the reason that I feel in love with the PGA Tour and its players. Annually, it provides one of the most difficult and yet fair tests on the PGA Tour schedule. Players love coming back for "Jack's Tournament" and with a 20 Million dollar Signature Event purse on the line, it once again attracted the majority of the best players in the world.
I wanted to use this piece to hopefully highlight a few different angles and elements that may be less spoken about to provide some value in this course preview. I'm hopeful that you can utilize this for building lineups and making your stat models to provide you with the best possible chances of success this week. This tournament typically brings dramatic finishes and has a unique way of producing great leaderboards due to the nature of course conditions and setup. Let's dive into Muirfield Village, my favorite course on Tour.
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!
An Introduction to the Course
Located on the outskirts of Ohio State University is Dublin, Ohio where Muirfield Village Golf Club was founded and designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1974. It remains revered by many as Nicklaus' best work. It's a true second-shot golf course, just like Nicklaus preferred, that provides a challenging and fair test for both the membership and professional players. The club was named in honor of Muirfield, Scotland, where Nicklas won his first Open Championship in 1966.
Over the last 50 years, the club has hosted The Memorial Tournament annually. The deep Hunter green color of the logo permeates throughout the golf course as well, there is often not a blade of grass out of place and the course just takes on its own unique hue of green that is captured on our television screens. While it may be one of the most visually appealing courses on the planet, it is also one of the most demanding of players.
Creeks and streams meander along the somewhat generous fairways that seem to capture wayward drives regularly. The rough is thick and imposing around the smallish greens that place a premium on approach play and elite precision. We always get a competitive field at this event which is played every summer. It's a joy to see the best players in the world challenged to the degree of a Muirfield Village and it provides exceptional preparation for professionals gearing up for the U.S. Open and Major Championships.
Recent Winners:
2023: Viktor Hovland -7 (Playoff)
2022: Billy Horschel -13
2021: Patrick Cantlay -13 (Playoff)
2020: Jon Rahm -
2019: Patrick Cantlay -19
Tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/YGRr2BeP15
— the Memorial (@MemorialGolf) June 2, 2024
Scorecard
Course Specs
I'm viewing my course specs this week through a narrow lens. I only want to go back about 3-4 years. That's because immediately after the 2020 Memorial Tournament, they began a substantial renovation project that was once again spearheaded by Jack Nicklaus to quite drastically modernize the golf course. They completely rebuilt all 18 greens and pushed seven of them back to a new location in an effort to make the course longer.
At the time, the talking point on the renovation was to "make the course more suitable for players of all skill levels." I believe that Nicklaus was taken back by players who were pushing the limits on distance at the time (mainly Bryson DeChambeau) and he was not thrilled with them being able to dismantle his course and play holes in ways that he never imagined. Several tee boxes were also pushed back to lengthen the course to over 7,500 yards for the players.
The greens have begun to settle in. They were very firm in the first year after the restoration. They were all re-grassed with a Bent Grass and given a state-of-the-art subair system underneath them that helps to regulate conditions in various weather conditions.
Muirfield Village is tough, producing some of the most difficult scoring conditions that we see all season. Last season it ranked as the second toughest course on Tour which included the Major Championships. The par-5's which were substantially lengthened are no longer easy birdie holes and the par-3's ranked as the toughest set of par-3's on Tour last season. The renovations have been well received by players and fans alike, and should once again provide us with an amazing golf tournament this week.
Over the last year, my @NicklausCo team and I made some major changes and slight tweaks on nearly every hole at Muirfield Village. I’ve outlined them all in this video. @memorialgolf pic.twitter.com/kePehQrLuT
— Jack Nicklaus (@jacknicklaus) May 31, 2021
Statistical Considerations
First things first, Jack Nicklaus-designed golf courses typically feature generous landing areas off the tee but require elite-level approach play. Muirfield Village falls into this category for me as well. It's truly a second-shot golf course that demands precision from 150-225 yards. Last season, 50% off all approach shots came within that range. The greens in regulation percentage is nearly 8% below the Tour average because the greens are severely canted and tough to hold from the rough, but also smallish in size compared to the length of the course.
Now, if you miss the greens, which players are likely to do around half the time, you have to have the elite short game and the ability to chip it close from gnarly, thick rough. They require touch and imagination, but you can use the slopes and course knowledge on occasion to have multiple options to deploy in order to get it close. Players are going to have to scramble often, and those who do it best will be most likely to succeed.
I mentioned that the fairways are generous, and they are. That said, you can't miss them. The missed fairway penalty in 2023 was +0.47 strokes, the highest of any tournament on the PGA Tour last season. Total Driving is a good state that will indicate a balance between distance and accuracy, both of which are required if you want to win. The other OTT stat that I am looking into is Carry Distance. The weather, at least early this week, looks very rainy which will soften the fairways quite a bit and will make an already long golf course play even longer.
Players must score on the Par 5's. They are all essentially between 550-600 yards. In order to take advantage of them, you'll need to make sure to be in the fairway off the tee in order to make the hole accessible in two shots. Even if you can reach it, players with adept ARG game and scrambling will be best suited to take advantage of the birdie opportunities. I'm looking into Birdie-or-Better rates on Par 5's in the 550-600 yard range.
Lastly, you have to putt it well. It's been the recipe for Denny McCarthy as he has been able to secure back-to-back top-5 finishes at Muirfield Village despite lacking in terms of his Ballstriking skills compared to the field. We often think of Viktor Hovland as a beast from Tee-to-Green, but it was his putting that ultimately earned him the victory last season. There were four players last year that gained at least +1.5 putting per round on average. They all finished 6th or better. Bent Grass-specific putting matters, a lot!
Approach Shot Distribution Ranged from the 2023 Memorial (via Datagolf):
Best Player Course Fit Rankings for the 2024 Memorial:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Rory McIlroy
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Ludvig Aberg
- Justin Thomas
- Corey COnners
- Collin Morikawa
- Si Woo Kim
- Wyndham Clark
Here are my personal Player Power Rankings and reasoning for my Top-10 Players to Watch this week!
2024 The Memorial Power Rankings: Top-10 Golfers To Watch https://t.co/nXzjKw0COc pic.twitter.com/10SZIvPEFq
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) June 3, 2024
*Based on the last 36 rounds of player data via Rickrungood.com.
