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In fantasy baseball redraft leagues, each draft pick is expected to provide results immediately, as many formats don’t offer minor league slots to stash fantasy baseball prospects who will emerge in the summer. It’s a lot harder to predict the immediate impact of starting pitching prospects as opposed to hitters for a plethora of reasons. Most notably, plenty of offseason moves are still to be made, which blocks young guys from cracking the Opening Day rotation.
Also, regardless of roster availability or health status, the workloads of the most talented young arms are strictly micromanaged throughout the season. Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto seems to be a generational talent and a ROY front-runner next year. However, he’ll be taken early in all drafts, and this article will focus on two prospects for the middle rounds and then two late-round flyers with elite stuff who could even become league winners.
I’ll also provide honorable mentions of prospects who had great debuts last year and are currently projected for their teams' Opening Day starting five. Let's break down the top prospect pitchers you should consider for 2024 redraft leagues.
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Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants
The 2020 third-round pick is already the Giants' #2 starter, and he’s provided plenty of reasons why he can be a mid-round pick to shatter his ADP in redraft leagues next season. Across 279.1 minor league innings, he posted a 3.32 ER and 0.8 HR/9 with a whopping 452 strikeouts. Unfortunately, control was an issue, and his 4.8 BB/9 led to an undesirable 1.31 WHIP. He didn’t deliver spectacular numbers in his debut for the Giants, finishing 2023 with a 4.15 ERA (5.53 FIP), 9.1 K/9, and 2.1 HR/9, but he gets a pass on the inflated longball statistic since he gave up four dingers in one start against Slam Diego.
More importantly, his control drastically improved, evidenced by a 2.86 BB/9 (7.5% BB rate), and he made a few brilliant starts. In his home debut against the Reds, he had 11 Ks over 6.1 shutout innings, and he ended the year throwing five hitless innings against a fully healthy Dodgers lineup. In his first taste of the bigs, he relied on his heater, throwing the mid-90s 4-seamer over 60% of the time.
In his 4-pitch mix, three of which he used in his MLB debut, the changeup has the greatest potential to become elite, as he induced 12 whiffs out of the 15 he threw in that final start vs. Los Angeles. Harrison’s focus this offseason is to build up his strength to follow the footsteps of Giants ace Logan Webb, who led all starters in innings pitched in 2023.
Only 15 guys threw 190 or more innings last year, so if there’s no workload limit on the rookie in 2024 and he refines his secondary pitches, he could become the best young hurler after Yamamoto. His career has featured Ks for days, so in that pitcher’s park, his ceiling is fantasy gold in 2024.
Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays
In one of the biggest trades thus far in the offseason, the Dodgers landed Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Rays in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca. Pepiot slides into their Opening Day rotation due to major elbow injuries to Shane McClanahan (out until 2025), Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen. Even when Springs and Rasmussen return, Pepiot will be an integral part of this pitching factory and will be available in the middle rounds of your drafts this spring despite being one of the league's best pitchers down the stretch.
He was nearly untouchable in his small sample last year, coming back from an oblique injury to finish ‘23 with a 2.14 ERA over 42 innings, allowing only 27 hits and five walks for a 0.76 WHIP! In his last three appearances (including one in the notorious Coors Field), he allowed four runs over 15 innings, all coming from the long ball.
Maybe giving up more taters than free passes is why he didn’t make a single postseason appearance for the Dodgers. Regardless, it's going to be hard for him to top the 27.4% hard-hit rate and near-elite 86.7 average exit velocity playing in the best division in baseball. If he can do a little better at keeping the ball in the park next season (improving on his 38.1% ground ball rate), he could see even better results on one of the league's best pitching staffs.
He's not an overpowering arm, evidenced by his 49th-percentile fastball velocity, but it's his control and off-speed stuff that makes him so effective. Astute fantasy managers will have to keep an eye on the Rays' pitchers throughout the year because they already have a strong starting rotation and there will be too many mouths to feed once Rasmussen and Springs return. Pepiot is a part of their long-term plans, which makes him a candidate to move to the bullpen. But if he can be anywhere near the pitcher he was last season, then they'll need him out there every five days.
Ricky Tiedemann, Toronto Blue Jays
This talented 21-year-old is a top-five pitching prospect for good reason: his mid-upper 90s fastball pairs well with a filthy changeup and improving slider. The 6'4" lefty showcased this three-pitch arsenal in the Arizona Fall League, posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 23 Ks over 18 innings, earning AFL Pitcher of the Year honors.
The Blue Jays currently have a vacancy for the fifth man in their starting rotation, so one would think this is Tiedemann’s job to lose. Although his minor league numbers have been impressive in his two seasons (2.71 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 0.3 HR/9), a few red flags may keep him in the minors to start 2024.
First of all, health has been an issue for the former third-round pick. He only logged 44 innings across four levels of the minors last season and 140.2 total innings in two seasons. This means (most likely) the Jays won’t push him too much next year, so it’s hard to imagine he throws over 100 IP in the bigs. Secondly, he’s walked 60 guys, good for a 3.8 BB/9, which spells disaster at the Major League Baseball level. Finally, his heater is considered a “dead-zone fastball,” which basically means it has less movement than other fastball types.
This hasn’t translated into an inflated HR/9 yet, but he may run into trouble with the long ball when he gets called up to the big club. If he can keep the ball down, refine his slider, and achieve better control overall, Tiedemann could be a worthy late-round selection with a big upside for a Blue Jays team with high aspirations for next season.
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
The rebuilding Pirates will most likely want to see how their first overall 2023 draft pick will fare in AAA before unleashing him in the majors, but the recent news of Johan Oviedo’s Tommy John surgery might open the door for Skenes to make his debut sooner than later in 2024.
He boasts a 100 mph fastball that is considered a “dead zone fastball” like Tiedemann’s, but he also throws highly graded sliders, changeups, and curveballs. What makes Skenes' pitches play up is that he has an unorthodox release point. He posted video game cheat code-like numbers in his senior year at LSU, posting a 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 209 Ks over 122.2 innings.
The Pirates currently have Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, and Quinn Priester in their projected starting rotation. Skenes' competition for the other two spots seems to be Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz, with JT Brubaker returning from an April 2023 Tommy John surgery. If he can flash his awesome stuff in spring training, he might be on the Opening Day roster, and the top-five overall prospect would be a great late draft pick!
Honorable Mentions
- Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams (CLE)
- Brandon Pfaadt (ARI)
- AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL)
- Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan (LAD)
- Reese Olson and Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET)
- Joe Boyle and Mason Miller (OAK)
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