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If you’re playing in a non-dynasty/keeper fantasy baseball league, it’s imperative to draft players who will make an immediate impact on your squad. Everybody in your league will have a win-now mindset; in order to dominate draft day, you must prepare a list of breakout candidates at each position.
Sometimes, these gems aren’t new to the show and may have projected upside from returning from a big injury, changing teams in the offseason, or coming off a strong September. However, this article will focus on the more common source of breakouts: prospects!
Let’s showcase a young hitter at each position and explain why they should be on your radar when you pick your team this March. Not all of these guys are guaranteed to make the Opening Day roster, but I’ve analyzed all 30 depth charts and focused on fantasy baseball prospects who should avoid service time manipulation. Some honorable mentions will be shouted out to expand your watch list.
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C: Austin Wells, New York Yankees
The Yankees had abysmal production at catcher last year and really haven’t had a consistent offensive contributor since Jorge Posada retired. Wells might be able to change that and should have every opportunity to win the starting spot in spring training.
His competition is Jose Trevino, who’s been lost since the 2022 All-Star game, and Kyle Higashioka, who will be taking reps at center field. Wells wasn’t overly impressive in his debut this past September, as he hit only .229 with a .257 on-base percentage (drawing three walks in 75 plate appearances), but smashing 10 extra-base hits in 70 at-bats reminded us of why he’s a top-100 prospect.
His BB/K rate in three minor league seasons was 175/304 with a .370 OBP, so the plate discipline should rise from his small sample of 4.0 BB%. As a member of the big club to end ‘23, he hit only about .130 when facing 86 changeups and sliders as opposed to slugging over .700 against 77 fastballs.
If the Bombers’ hitting coaches can work with him facing offspeed pitches and he maintains that 14.0 Barrel% with a .584 xSLG, they can unlock his full potential as a lefty playing half his games with that short right field porch.
Honorable Mentions
1B: Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians
Manzardo faced some personal issues that negatively impacted his 2023 minor league season, batting 46 points lower and slugging 78 points lower than his minor league career rates, but the plate discipline stayed consistent as he garnered 55 walks as opposed to 80 strikeouts.
With everything behind him in the ‘23 Arizona Fall League, he tore the cover off the ball with a .905 OPS and six HR. The Guardians are in desperate need of offense and although Josh Naylor has been a revelation from their clean-up spot, his defensive and health issues make him way more suitable as a designated hitter. First base will be Manzardo’s to lose this spring. This top-25 prospect roped 53 doubles in the last two seasons, and you can expect him to continue pummeling the gaps against lackluster AL Central pitching.
Honorable Mentions
2B: Zack Gelof, Oakland Athletics
Although Zack Gelof exceeded his rookie limitations in 2023, he's still not able to rent a car, so we'll include him in this elite lineup of can't-miss young sluggers. The 2021 second-round pick played exactly 69 games in AAA as well as in the MLB last season, and he produced similar numbers at both levels, so we should expect great things next year. He hit almost exclusively out of the 2-hole for the Athletics, finishing with 14 HR, 40 runs, 32 RBI, 14 steals, and a respectable triple slash line of .267/.337/.504 good for an .841 OPS. Something that's very encouraging is that half of his extra-base hits went to the opposite field.
He's clearly the best hitter on the A's and although some of his counting stats have a lower ceiling due to a lackluster lineup around him, this power/speed threat (89.8 average exit velocity and 91st percentile sprint speed) will be helpful in all fantasy categories. Like many young hitters, he must improve upon his 33.7% whiff rate to strike out less than 27.3% of the time and become a real stud at 2B.
Second base doesn't feature too many elite names that go early in the draft, so in a full season of games, he should crush his ADP. If Gelof keeps his sweet spot and barrel rates up, there's no reason why he can't flirt with a 30/30 season in 2024.
Honorable Mentions
3B: Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds’ top prospect made most of his starts at third base last year but might be able to retain shortstop eligibility in some fantasy formats. The Reds will most likely move Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Marte around the diamond, but even if he doesn’t regain eligibility at short, you’ll want to draft this kid for the hot corner.
He’s posted a career minor league triple slash line of .282/.367/.467, averaging 18 homers and 24 stolen bases per year. In just over a month of games for the Reds, he hit .316/.366/.456 with three HR and six SB, proving infallible consistency at each level. Next year, he’ll be in the middle of one of the most exciting young lineups in baseball, playing 81 games at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
He might not hit over .300 for the season, as he pulls the ball a ton, and the league will adjust. However, when you see a 91.3 average exit velocity and 46.1% hard-hit rate, you know that the counting stats are sure to follow. It's a little worrisome that he strained his hamstring in winter ball considering he's in the 91st percentile in spring speed. If he has no health issues in spring training and Marte's ADP stays above 200, you'll be getting a steal in the later rounds of your draft.
Honorable Mentions
SS: Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
It wasn’t just because of injuries as to why Caminero made the postseason roster for the Rays in 2023, and he didn’t disappoint by going 5-17 with a HR and five RBI. These numbers weren’t too surprising considering the top-five prospect in baseball slugged 31 round-trippers as a 19-year-old in 117 minor-league games before being called up in September.
He was primarily used at 3B in 2023, and he may not get everyday playing time initially at SS since the Rays' infield is pretty stacked and they love to play matchups. But when you consider this kid has destroyed pitching in each level he’s seen, combined with the uncomfortable fact that Wander Franco’s future is in jeopardy, the organization has little reason to start Caminero in the minors at SS next spring.
His ceiling is sky-high, and he should be an early AL ROY candidate if he keeps raking. In winter ball, he impressed with 5 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB, and a .937 OPS in 21 games for Leones del Escogido in the Dominican Republic professional league.
Honorable Mentions
OF: Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
Full Count Carter hit third and fourth in each game of the World Series for his championship team and will be a mainstay in this lineup full of hammers next season. After being called up in September, he hit .307 with a 1.059 OPS and was just as good in the postseason, slashing .300/.417/.500 and racking up 20 extra-base hits in 40 total games.
This top-10 prospect has awesome plate discipline (career .410 OBP with elite 16% walk rate and 9% chase rate), speed (96th percentile sprint speed), and pop (46.2% hard-hit and 43.6% sweet spot rates). To top it off, he's solid defensively to finally end the Rangers' two-year search for an everyday left fielder.
You can guarantee that in the heart of arguably the best lineup in baseball, he’s a can’t-miss fantasy star next season. If he can improve his 32% strikeout rate and 30.2% whiff rate, he should be a Rookie of the Year front-runner and could even become the best outfielder on your 2024 squad!
Honorable Mentions
- Wyatt Langford
- Jasson Dominguez (after ASB)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Alexander Canario
- Heston Kjerstad
- Garrett Mitchell
- Jonny DeLuca
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