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There is an excellent reason that so many NFL futures come with highly enticing lines: They’re really difficult to predict correctly. For a league in which 50% postseason turnover is commonplace -- in 2017 and 2018, two-thirds of playoff teams did not make the postseason the prior year -- predicting the NFL hierarchy in any given year is a challenge.
That’s precisely why they’re often my favorite bets. Sure, falling in love or having a child is fine, but have you ever had a team you don't care about hitting a long-odds prop you've held for months? Last season, the Rams to make the postseason at +300 was like a mini lotto ticket I held onto like an indie LP that I knew was destined for mainstream success. The early stuff is almost always better.
Even hitting one or two good futures can put you in the black. To borrow a line from the film adaptation of "The Big Short," when you’re wrong, you’re wrong small, but when you’re right, you’re right big. And that's fun.
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Team Futures - NFL Betting Picks
Arizona Cardinals to make the playoffs (+300)
It likely will not surprise you to learn that Baltimore led the NFL in rushing yards before contact last season.
It probably will surprise you that only the Ravens outgained Arizona in YBC during a year in which quarterback Kyler Murray played only half the season.
Here for the Suga Show 👊 pic.twitter.com/BfqGUooxPb
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) August 28, 2024
This team can run the ball, has a healthy quarterback, found its tight end of the future in Trey McBride, and added a generational receiver prospect in Marvin Harrison Jr., which should improve on the club’s pedestrian 7.1 average depth of target (tied for 20th) in the passing game.
With a natural boost from Murray in his second year following ACL surgery, Arizona almost certainly will improve on the club’s on-target pass percentage, which was 30th in the NFL in 2023.
Jonathan Gannon on Kyler Murray: "He looks damn good"https://t.co/axXEaCSXYO pic.twitter.com/OVpVi1e2Jr
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) August 20, 2024
If the Cardinals improve in stopping the run at all in 2024, they're a legitimate candidate to double their win total and hang around the NFC playoff picture.
There always are a few teams that hit on longer odds to make the playoffs -- like the Texans (+550), Bucs (+375), and Rams (+300) last season -- and Arizona certainly could be among them this year with a nice line to incentivize investment.
Jacksonville to win the AFC South (+275)
Did we forget about the Jags that fast? The team that gave the Chiefs a battle in the Divisional Round in the 2022 season was 8-3 last year before a handful of injuries to quarterback Trevor Lawrence derailed its year.
The Jags turned over the ball the fifth most in the NFL and had their most important player hurt last season … and still finished 9-8. With a regression to the turnover mean and any improvement on defense with a new defensive coaching staff, this looks like a winning team.
Houston is the AFC South favorite, but Jacksonville also has a pretty good young quarterback, a Super Bowl-winning coach, and plays a second-place schedule compared to Houston's first-place schedule.
These plus odds for an actual division contender is a solid value. Also, this is the AFC South. The only rule is that there are no rules.
Green Bay to win the NFC North (+230)
If you’re buying the Jordan Love we saw in the second half of last season -- that Green Bay found a third straight franchise quarterback -- then you won’t get a better price on the Packers to win the division for years.
The numbers certainly support that Green Bay’s deep passing game was bordering on elite as Love prepares for his second full season as a starter.
Green Bay finished last year third in team average depth of target, third in fewest sacks allowed, fifth in intended air yards per attempt, and tied for ninth in completed air yards/completion. Love also proved to be a dangerous scrambler, spurring Green Bay to 8.5 yards per attempt, the second-best mark in the NFL.
The offense was joined by a defense that was good enough, finishing top-10 in adjusted net passing yards per attempt, sack percentage, and yards per game, then added dynamic safety Xavier McKinney in free agency.
For a team that was a whisker away from the NFC title game last year, +230 to win its division is enticing.
New York Giants to win the fewest games (+1000)
If we’re betting on an organization that soon will be crashing into a rebuild, the Giants seem like a candidate.
In five years since they drafted quarterback Daniel Jones, the Giants have finished 19th, 31st, 31st, 15th, and 30th in total points. Jones’s best year individually, 2022, included a completed air yards per attempt rate of 3.4 (tied for 22nd among QBs with six or more starts), a 45.7% passing success rate (17th), and 5.89 adjusted net yards per attempt (22nd).
He’ll be fewer than 10 months recovering from ACL surgery when this season starts, likely mitigating his ability as a runner. The Giants already seriously flirted with QBs in the 2024 draft before standing pat and selecting promising receiver Malik Nabers.
Brian Daboll on conversations with Daniel Jones after the Giants quarterback interest was revealed on Hard Knocks:@GioWFAN @WFANmornings pic.twitter.com/noWsjHJwPY
— WFAN Sports Radio (@WFAN660) August 20, 2024
Jones' backup, Drew Lock -- the Giants’ hedge for Jones’ recovery -- missed multiple weeks of training camp with a hip injury. Nabers is completely reliant upon the QB situation.
So take a ride with me for a moment: Let’s assume the Giants split their first two games, relative toss-ups against Minnesota and Washington. Their next six weeks: at Cleveland, Dallas, at Seattle, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and at Pittsburgh in prime time.
Feeling good about any of that? Vegas isn’t: the first time the Giants are favored is Nov. 3. There is a legitimate chance this team is 2-6 or worse on Halloween. Do you know what happens when a team with a thin roster and an expensive quarterback is out of it by November? People start getting benched, traded, and fired.
For a team that has an out on Jones’ contract in 2025 and already looks headed toward big changes, a midseason reset button in 2024 is plausible -- and so is the No. 1 overall pick.
Team Win Totals - NFL Futures Betting Picks
Detroit Lions UNDER 10.5 wins (+110)
The Lions offense is undeniably fun. The defense, though? That's a different story.
The Lions were tied for the second-worst average depth of target as a team last year, and cornerback Cameron Sutton, who started all 17 games for Detroit last year, was released after felony domestic battery charges.
Newly acquired cornerback Carlton Davis III allowed 506 air yards in 2023, a career-worst and ninth most among corners. New addition Emmanuel Moseley suffered a torn pectoral and is likely to miss the majority of the season. Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. are rookies. Amik Robertson is 5-foot-9 and has been inconsistent.
Top linebacker Jack Campbell was 87th among 88 qualifying linebackers in PFF’s pass coverage grade a season ago.
Teams are going to like throwing on the Lions, who already play the toughest schedule in their division. Of all the teams inside the top five of Super Bowl odds, this is the clearest path to an under.
Philadelphia Eagles OVER 3.5 division wins (-150)
Philadelphia’s once-dominant running game grew stale in 2023, as the Eagles -- who were dead last in motion usage -- slumped to an uncharacteristic 20th in yards after contact and tied for 23rd in YAC/attempt, highly impactful regressions for a team that ran 510 times.
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore previously has used motion more than double the rate of the 2023 Eagles. New running Saquon Barkley finished eighth in the NFL in yards after contact, and Philly spent a fourth-round pick to select Clemson’s Will Shipley as added depth.
When added to Jalen Hurts, this should be a top-five running game in football.
Jahan Dotson has been traded to the Philadelphia Eagles!
He’s Back in Pennsylvania!
— Barstool Penn State (@PSUBarstool) August 22, 2024
The Eagles also addressed defense after struggling there as well, allowing the fourth-most air yards in football last season (2,614), third-most pass touchdowns per attempt (5.4), and second-most overall touchdowns (35).
General manager Howie Roseman added three defensive players with their first three picks in the draft, nabbing two of the top cornerbacks in the draft in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, and edge-rusher Jalyx Hunt.
Even though the juice isn’t particularly good, if you think Philly is a double-digit win team, that scenario almost certainly includes four-plus division wins. The odds certainly matter, but what matters the most is being right.
Cleveland Browns UNDER 8.5 wins (+115)
The Browns defense was historically excellent in 2023, but what is this offense going to look like in 2024?
Deshaun Watson is coming off surgery on his throwing shoulder, missed time during camp with "general arm soreness," whatever that means, and has played a robust 12 games in three seasons. Before surgery, his 20.6% bad throw percentage was the second worst of any quarterback who started six or more games.
Cleveland also has legitimate issues at offensive tackle. Its top three tackles are coming off knee injuries, and projected starters Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr. both missed all of training camp recovering.
Browns OT Jack Conklin on his rehab: “It was ACL, MCL, PCL, meniscus. So, it was the whole shebang. Any knee injury is not easy. It was a lot but I knew what it took.”
— Daniel Oyefusi (@DanielOyefusi) August 27, 2024
Beloved offensive line coach Bill Callahan is now in Tennessee. Top corner Denzel Ward suffered his fifth reported concussion since entering the league and was in concussion protocol during training camp. The best offensive player, running back Nick Chubb, is coming off a catastrophic knee injury and will miss at least the first four weeks on the PUP list.
Oh, and the Browns play, by any measure, one of the hardest schedules in the league. Even with a great defense, the uncertainty that surrounds many of Cleveland’s top players is heartburn-inducing. The under has some value here.
Carolina Panthers over 5.5 wins (-115)
The Panthers have averaged 4.8 wins over the past five seasons, during which they have fired three head coaches midseason. They deserve this line -- but they also can beat it.
The club, to its credit, took important steps this offseason. New head coach Dave Canales, the architect of resurgences for Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, was a dynamite hire for quarterback Bryce Young’s future.
Carolina signed two quality guards in Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis -- Young was sacked 62 times in 2023, second only to David Carr’s disaster rookie year with the expansion Texans in 2002 -- then drafted a full repertoire of offensive skill players in running back Jonathon Brooks, receiver Xavier Legette, and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders.
They also bought low on Diontae Johnson, a former 1,000-yard receiver, in a trade with Pittsburgh. Despite the Steelers’ struggles post-Ben Roethlisberger, quarterbacks had a 99.6 rating last season when targeting Johnson, who is still just 28 and has WR1 route-running ability.
In addition to playing in the NFC South, the Panthers have the Giants, Broncos, Commanders, Bears, and Raiders on the schedule. There are six wins here.
Season Long Player Props - NFL Betting Picks
Dallas Turner to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+425)
Turner was the top defensive player in last year’s draft, and he fell to Minnesota, where defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ revamped defense should present an opportunity for the young pass-rusher.
Former Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner records his first sack of the preseason against the Las Vegas Raiders. This is the first of many for Turner. He has great bend and burst off the edge. I expect him to excel at the next level.
🎥: @AlabamaFTBL pic.twitter.com/ALbzTCfnso
— Brody Smoot (@BrodySmoot) August 10, 2024
Importantly, Minnesota added other two pass-rushers entering their should-be primes in Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel -- who had a combined 52 pressures and 18.5 sacks last season -- to a team that led the NFL in blitz rate in 2023. That means Turner likely will not get double-teamed at exorbitantly high rates.
Turner is a solid bet to pile up sacks, and pass-rushers have won this award five of the past six years. Rookies are especially difficult to predict, but at +425, there’s a lot to like about Turner's situation.
Joe Burrow to win MVP (+900)
During the past 15 seasons, the MVP went to a quarterback whose team won its division 14 times.
The Bengals’ over-under is 10.5. They play in probably the best top-to-bottom division. Burrow’s last two healthy seasons included on-target percentages of 82.8% and 79.7%, which is firmly in Mahomes-ville in terms of accuracy.
If you’re buying the Bengals to have a big year, Burrow will be at the center, and a 42+ touchdown season and a division title almost guarantee a top-3 MVP finish as a QB. Burrow had 40 total TDs in 2022.
As one of the very few players who could plausibly win MVP, +900 is a spicy lottery ticket.
Kirk Cousins over 3800.5 passing yards (-115)
The Falcons shook up the draft by selecting Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall, but for this year at least, Cousins is starting.
Cousins cleared 4,200 yards in his past three full seasons with Minnesota, and last season he was averaging 291 yards per game before tearing his Achilles, which is a 4,900-yard pace. New Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, like Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell, is part of the Sean McVay coaching tree.
Cousins was fifth in football in completed air yards per pass attempt in 2023 and passed for more than 1,100 yards off play-action in his past four full seasons -- and now he plays with Bijan Robinson.
Oddsmakers favor the Falcons to be one of the NFC’s top seven teams -- Atlanta is -215 to make the playoffs -- and Cousins, while imperfect, is still good enough to hold off a rookie for a year.
This total is low because of Cousins' injury last season and the fear Penix might overtake the starting job, and that means opportunity.
Carson Beck to be the first pick of the NFL Draft (+425)
Jack Elway once joked that someone who has the first pick earned it. And, in most years, the team selecting first desperately needs a quarterback or can sell the pick for a ransom to someone who does.
Quarterbacks have gone first in eight of the past 10 drafts, and while there is so much uncertainty about the college season or about which team will be drafting first -- hence the odds -- the best bets are on the select few college quarterbacks who can reasonably be No. 1.
For 2025, you can parse the list down to Beck, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, and Texas’ Quinn Ewers. Beck will be a multiyear starter, has NFL measurables, completed 72% of his passes against ranked teams in 2023, plays with likely the best roster in the country, and is a good bet as any to be in the top 10 of EPA/play in 2024.
The number of variables between now and April is high, but Beck offers the most reasonable odds in this future.
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