2024 NFL Draft - Best Bets For The First Round

Joey Pollizze looks at the five best bets for the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Read the 2024 NFL Draft best bets here.

We are just hours away from the 2024 NFL Draft starting in Detroit. The Chicago Bears own the first overall pick, while the Washington Commanders and New England Patriots will round out the top three spots. As a result, it is expected that the top three picks will all be quarterbacks in this year's draft.

That's why, for the sake of this article, we won't categorize "best bets" as things that will almost certainly happen. For example, Caleb Williams' odds on FanDuel to get drafted first overall is -20000, and Marvin Harrison Jr.'s odds to be the first wide receiver off the board is -1200.

I am going to dig a little deeper into the lines on FanDuel and identify the five best bets in the first round that people should be taking. So, let's dive in and see what the five best bets are in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

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Malik Nabers To Go Fifth Overall (+300)

There have been a ton of rumors surrounding the Los Angeles Chargers in recent days. There have been reports that the team could be looking to trade the pick or take an offensive lineman if they stay at fifth overall. As a result, it makes sense why Joe Alt (+290) is the betting favorite to go fifth overall.

#LSU fans were spoiled with the greatness of Malik Nabers.

Now, he’s looking to be the next great Louisiana wideout in the NFL.

Nabers is expected to be a Top 10 selection on Thursday.

The LSU Accolades:
3,003 yards (No. 1 all-time)
187 receptions (No. 1)
Biletnikoff Finalist pic.twitter.com/pKEMTMnMM2

— Zack Nagy (@znagy20) April 24, 2024

Ultimately, though, the Chargers won't move off this pick and take wide receiver Malik Nabers at fifth overall. There's no doubt Los Angeles will select a wide receiver early in this draft after trading away Keenan Allen and cutting Mike Williams earlier this offseason. That's why it would be somewhat of a shock to see the team pass on one of the best wide receiver prospects in the class.

Brock Bowers O/U 11.5 Draft Position (Under -118)

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers' draft position line is set at 11.5, which is certainly generous -- considering he has been linked to both the Chicago Bears at ninth overall and the New York Jets at 10th overall. There's also a chance that a tight end-needy team like the Indianapolis Colts (15th overall) and Cincinnati Bengals (18th overall) move up to take one of the best playmakers in the draft.

.@TonyPauline said from what he's hearing "there's a real possibility" someone trades in front of the #Jets at pick No. 10 to steal away Georgia TE Brock Bowers if he even makes it that far.

That works for me because either Joe Alt or one of the big 3 wide receivers would fall… pic.twitter.com/Wt68h5UGU7

— Paul Andrew Esden Jr (@BoyGreen25) April 23, 2024

The lines on both the over (-112) and under (-118) are almost the same, so there isn't a real advantage in taking this bet. However, it's almost free money, especially with a team like the Jets in a good spot to take him at 10th overall. New York will do all it can to upgrade the passing situation around quarterback Aaron Rodgers next season.

Xavier Worthy O/U 28.5 Draft Position (Under -158)

There were two bets I was debating in this spot here between Adonai Mitchell (over/under 27.5 draft position) and Xavier Worthy (over/under 28.5 draft position). However, I decided to go with Worthy, especially given his record-setting 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine earlier this offseason.

That one extra draft position slot in the line between Mitchell and Worthy is also very important because the Bills pick at 28th overall. So, there's a good chance they will take the best wideout available in Round 1. That ultimately will give bettors an extra team that Worthy can possibly get drafted to on Thursday. Given his speed, a team will certainly take a chance on him before pick 29.

Will the Arizona Cardinals Make Their Fourth Pick? (Yes +134)

The biggest question everyone wants to know ahead of Thursday's draft is whether the Arizona Cardinals will pick at fourth overall or trade out of it. Well, you can actually bet on those odds, and surprisingly, it's plus money on FanDuel if Arizona stays put at fourth.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is looking to become the fourth Ohio State WR taken in the first round since 2022 🔥

Is Ohio State WRU? pic.twitter.com/GcNGWNlx2m

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) April 25, 2024

It would make sense why the Cardinals don't trade out of the fourth pick and take the best prospect in the class in Harrison Jr. They could also definitely use the Ohio State product, considering they traded away Rondale Moore and lost Marquise Brown in free agency this offseason. Arizona's asking price for the fourth pick also appears to be high, according to various reports, making it more and more likely it stays here and picks at this spot.

O/U 4.5 Quarterbacks Drafted In First Round (Over -330)

If you are looking for a safer bet in the first round, look no further than the one listed above. The -330 odds are certainly in your favor, and honestly, it's a favorable line.

There's no doubt that Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy will all be selected toward the top of the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams, Daniels, and Maye will likely go top three, while McCarthy could land somewhere from fourth to 11th. Then, all you need is one more quarterback to get selected in the first round, which seems like it really could happen.

The Denver Broncos have been linked to Bo Nix at 12th overall, and Michael Penix Jr. has been linked to the Las Vegas Raiders at 13th overall. Both teams are in desperate need of a franchise quarterback, and it would be shocking for either to pass on the opportunity to select one at this point in the draft.

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