RADIO
Hello and welcome to my official course and tournament preview piece for the 2024 Mexico Open held at Vidanta Vallarta for the third consecutive year. The goal each week is to provide a comprehensive and in-depth look at the specs of the golf course to help you best understand historical trends and stat profiles that have proven to be indicators of success at this tournament in the past. The golf course is the ever-changing variable week to week on the PGA Tour and it is pivotal to understand the specs in great detail while researching the tournament.
Let's not sugar-coat it, the field strength is a bit of a letdown. The good news is that Vidanta Vallarta has presented us with a pretty straightforward week in terms of player's correlated skill sets to success, that we can apply to give us a leg up in both DFS and betting this week.
We have a solid amount of data and course analytics to properly make some assessments regarding advantageous player skill sets and course setup specifics. Vidanta Vallarta in the first two years has provided us substantial insights that I believe make it more predictive than the average PGA Tour tournament. Let's dig into some specifics of the golf couse in an attempt to isolate players best suited for success at the Mexico Open.
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An Introduction to the Course
On tap this week is Vidanta Vallarta, a resort-style course that was designed by Greg Norman (sheepish grin) and located just off the coast of Puerto Vallarta in Mexico. The course essentially plays at sea level and despite being one of the longest courses we see each year, the scoring is very low and it has turned into a birdie fest on both previous occasions. The course features generous, wider-than-average fairways and is a very straightforward layout in terms of providing ample scoring opportunities for those who avoid the water and excess bunkering.
The course features paspalum grass throughout from tee to green which is a type of grass engineered to withstand the tropical temperatures and abundance of salt without dying off throughout the year. It sticky and spongy, and if you have ever played on Paspalum you certainly know that you get very little to zero roll when the ball hits the ground. It's important to note this week given the length of the course and you may want to look more closely at things like Carry distance rather than just total Driving distance and a more accurate barometer of length.
There are no tricks to Vidanta Vallarta, you need to be long off the tee and accurate with your long irons. Last season over 60% of all approach shots came from 175-250 yards which is about 20% more than the tour average. This place is nothing more than a bomber's paradise and if a player has shown the ability to putt well on slower, paspalum greens in the past, then it is definitely an added benefit when looking to hone in on the best-player course fits.
Recent Winners
2023: Tony Finau -24
2022: Jon Rahm -17
Player Quotes
Jon Rahm - “The wind makes it a completely different golf course. Yesterday, you know, except the last four holes or so, we enjoyed a wind-free day and you can be a little bit more aggressive with certain shots. Even with a couple longer irons, you’re just comfortable hitting it at the pin because those greens are receptive. On the other hand, today a couple of the par 5s were shorter, yes, but some holes were playing long, 10 was long, eight was long, nine and 13 were playing very, very difficult."
There were several player quotes about the wind and how it can make the course play completely different. Pay close attention to this as the week moves along. Here is a link to windfinder for Puerto Vallarta - https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/puerto_vallarta_jalisco
The Scorecard - Mexico Open
Course Specs
Vidanta opened in 2016 under the design of Greg Norman as a resort-style destination with a focus on creating captivating golf course options for their guests. The biggest thing that sticks out immediately when analyzing the scorecard is the length of some of the par 4's. Six of them play well over 450 yards and three of them are basically 500 yards. The course also features five total Par 3's which is somewhat unusual and three of them come within the final 8 holes.
The four Par 5's are between 548 and 637 yards and despite the total length, played as four of the five easiest holes last season. The only other hole that played substantially under par was the driveable par-4 7th hole that plays only 297 yards and last season played at least a half stroke under par in all four rounds which is pretty remarkable. As with any Greg Norman design, there is a ton of bunkers. Given the resort nature, many are either not in play or not penalizing to pro players at this level so I would not be overly concerned.
The fairways average over 40 yards wide and the rough if completely negligible so players will swing freely with Driver all week long. That said, you cannot miss REALLY right. That is about the only spot where water can come into play and many require a forced carry and a drop that will be well back of your playing competitors should you miss that badly.
Statistical Considerations
Like previously mentioned, this is a straightforward week and a course that is a bomber's paradise. Players will be hitting Driver on all 13 holes that are not a Par-3 with a mental freedom to swing hard given the lack of penalty for a miss hit. If you want to go deeper for Off-The-Tee analytics, I would recommend prioritizing more detailed stats such as Carry Distance, Apex Height on Drives, and Ball Speed as a best measurement for distance on this type of course that has the paspalum fairways.
Players who hit the ball 20 yards longer than the average player here gain approximately +2.3 strokes per round at Vidanta Vallarta. That is simply one of the strongest correlations to distance that we see all year and should be the number one factor in your stat model this week.
However, do not sleep on long iron play. Due in part to the wind, more than half of all approach shots last season came from over 175 yards. This is what allows some players who may not be bombers off the tee to complete, but they must possess an elite game with their 4-6 irons to make up ground on the field. You must be able to play the longish par-5's well under par if you want to have a chance this week so I would also look a bit into par 5 scoring from 550-650 yards.
The last and most difficult variable is the putting on Paspalum grass. We do not have a ton of courses that feature these types of greens and it is hard to universally say whether slowed-down greens benefit better or worse putters across the board. Course history, while only with 2 years of data, could be a sticking point here if trying to make a coin-flip decision on one player or another. All in all, I think this is a week to not veer too far from your model and let the data do the talking. Here is a look at some of the DG Plots from last season.
Approach shot distribution from 2023 at Vidanta Vallarta via Datagolf:
Radar Plot Spider Chart at the Mexico Open:
Players With The Best Course Fit Ratings at Vidanta Vallarta for the Mexico Open:
- Stephan Jaeger
- Michael Kim
- Brandon Wu
- Taylor Pendrith
- Aaron Rai
- Tony Finau
- Mark Hubbard
- Doug Ghim
- Erik Van Rooyen
- Nicolai Hojgaard
*All data based on last 36 rounds strokes gained data
