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With the NFL moving away from traditional bell cow running backs, it has caused fantasy football players to place more emphasis on the wide receiver position. Take FFPC drafts, for example. On average, eight of the first twelve picks are receivers. It was not all that long ago that you’d be laughed at for taking a receiver in the first round. Now, it's standard practice.
Even though we see more receivers going early, it doesn’t mean there aren’t values available later in drafts. It also doesn’t guarantee that a receiver is bust-proof just because they are being selected early. That’s why we must identify both potential sleeper and bust candidates for the position.
Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are several wide receiver sleeper and bust candidates for the 2024 fantasy football season.
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2024 Wide Receiver Sleepers
Dontayvion Wicks - Green Bay Packers
Wicks flashed potential in his debut season with the Packers. He certainly looked the part, as his route-running acumen turned heads throughout the year.
What does Year 2 have in store for Dontayvion Wicks?
pic.twitter.com/oExLzpRIQt— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) May 15, 2024
In limited action, Wicks posted some impressive advanced metrics. He checked in with a 23% Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) along with a 2.31 Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) per Fantasy Points Data Suite. This comes in a small sample, but it’s the kind of data you love seeing from a rookie. Green Bay’s receiving room is crowded, yet it’s unclear who will eventually emerge as the top option.
With a RotoBaller ranking of WR68, Wicks is a good dart throw at the end of drafts. He should only improve going forward and can become a go-to option in this offense. With a little luck, he can emerge as Jordan Love’s top target.
Rashid Shaheed - New Orleans Saints
The Saints need another receiving threat behind star receiver Chris Olave. Shaheed quietly made improvements during his sophomore season. The big play specialist posted career highs in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns in 2023.
RASHID SHAHEED 45 YARD TOUCHDOWN
pic.twitter.com/jnCfj563oE— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 22, 2023
He will need to further develop his route running to become more than a boom/bust player. If he does, then he can become a strong WR3 or flex option for players in deeper leagues. Shaheed has an FFPC ADP of 147th overall, so he should be relatively cheap in drafts. He is a sneaky third-year breakout candidate and is a perfect low-risk/high-reward target in drafts.
Ja’Lynn Polk - New England Patriots
New England had been looking to make a significant investment in the wide receiver position all offseason. After losing out on Calvin Ridley in free agency, they turned around and spent the 37th overall pick on Polk in the NFL Draft.
Christian Gonzalez says “he kept tabs” on #Patriots rookie WR Ja'Lynn Polk:
"He's a great player… a great receiver."
Gonzalez emphasized that Polk did indeed catch a touchdown against Oregon while Gonzalez was at Oregon, but says, "It wasn't on me." 😂 pic.twitter.com/sgHbQOWTA9
— Carlos Talks Pats (@LosTalksPats) May 7, 2024
Polk enjoyed a nice senior year at the University of Washington. He totaled over 1,100 receiving yards and scored nine touchdowns in the air. His underlying data was also strong as he touted a solid 2.42 YPRR in 2023 per Pro Football Focus (PFF). He may have a large role right away.
This is a team in desperate need of pass-catchers. There’s a clear opening for someone to emerge as the Patriots’ WR1. Polk has talent and draft capital in his corner. He can be a solid WR3 or flex option in PPR leagues. Polk is going outside the top 190 picks in FFPC drafts. At that price, why not take a chance on him? If he doesn’t work out, just kick him back to waivers.
Curtis Samuel - Buffalo Bills
Samuel arrives in Buffalo after signing a three-year, $24 million contract in free agency. The Bills are hoping he can help fill the void left after Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis departed this offseason. Samuel has always been a versatile player and can be used in a variety of ways.
Curtis Samuel doing Curtis Samuel things.
Third-straight week with a rushing touchdown for him. pic.twitter.com/3HEHIFzOuk
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) November 8, 2020
Buffalo’s offense has 241 vacated targets from last year. Samuel also has experience in offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s system from their days with the Carolina Panthers. He actually had his best season as a professional in Brady’s system during the 2020 season. Samuel has an FFPC ADP of 127th overall. Not a bad price for Josh Allen’s potential WR1. Expect him to be a major cog in this offense.
2024 Wide Receiver Busts
Davante Adams - Las Vegas Raiders
While Adams had another strong season in 2023, there are several reasons to be concerned about his 2024. Las Vegas figures to have a run-oriented offense, and a Gardner Minshew II/Aidan O’Connell quarterback combination doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Despite poor quarterback play last year, Adams still drew targets at a high rate. However, there’s also the fact that he turns 32 during the season. We have seen players drop off fast during their 30s, and there’s no telling when it will happen with Adams. Father Time always wins.
It just feels like the deck is stacked against Adams this year. While he’s long been a top fantasy producer, we must recognize the reality of his situation. With an FFPC ADP of 23rd overall, a second-round price tag is a high ask considering everything surrounding him. While Adams remains a talented player, his price is a little too expensive. The risk doesn’t feel like it’s adequately baked into the cost.
Nico Collins - Houston Texans
Collins enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 as he set career highs across the board. While he was a bargain in drafts last year, gamers now have to pay a premium for his services. It’s understandable, as Collins’ play was incredible. His analytical profile was also off the charts. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, his 3.37 Yards Per Route Run was second only to Tyreek Hill.
CJ STROUD 🎯 NICO COLLINS
75 YARD TOUCHDOWN 🔥🔥🔥pic.twitter.com/44aLfVCFkL
— Jordan Pun (@Texans_Thoughts) January 7, 2024
Despite the break-out season, there are a few issues that complicate matters. Houston acquired former Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade this offseason, and Collins already has second-year receiver Tank Dell to compete with for targets. Dell is set to return from a leg injury that ended his rookie season. Another item of concern for Collins is the fact when both he and Dell were on the field together; Dell appeared to be the team’s top option.
I love Nico Collins BUT…
In the 7 full games Nico & Tank Dell played where Dell was integrated & healthy…
Tank Dell was HOU’s WR1 pic.twitter.com/f70ppZ2phY
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 2, 2024
Diggs now adds further target competition into the mix, and it’s unclear exactly how the available targets will be distributed among these three players. While Collins is undoubtedly talented, paying up for Collins without knowing how targets will be distributed in this offense doesn’t feel like the most efficient play. Collins’ FFPC ADP of 37th overall just feels too expensive for a player who may not even be the top receiver on his own team.
Cooper Kupp - Los Angeles Rams
Kupp’s 2023 season started on the wrong foot when an August hamstring injury landed him on injured reserve to start the year. When he returned, Kupp didn't seem like the same player. He averaged just under 62 yards per game, and this was his lowest mark since his rookie season. Now contending for targets with last year’s fantasy football MVP Puka Nacua, it may be time for fantasy managers to adjust expectations.
It’s also hard to justify taking Kupp when you consider the downward trajectory he’s been on since 2021. He has struggled with injuries each of the last two seasons and turned 31 years old this summer. Despite that, Kupp is hoping to finally shake the injury bug and return to his previous form.
Leaving Cooper Kupp wide open?!
The easiest 62-yard touchdown ever.pic.twitter.com/M63IlmX0IC
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) December 17, 2023
However, there’s an old rule when it comes to fantasy football. Old players who get hurt usually keep getting hurt. While it’s not unfathomable that Kupp can bounce back, gambling on a 31-year-old receiver who is struggling with injuries/declining play is not the best use of a fourth-round pick. There are less risky players to gamble on come draft day.
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