RADIO
Every season, there are a few running backs going too late in fantasy football drafts who eventually break out. Last year, backs like James Cook, Rachaad White, and Isiah Pacheco were all going outside the top 60 in drafts, but all three showed out in their second NFL season. Cook and White finished in the top 12 at the position, while Pacheco finished as the RB15.
What all of those running backs had in common in their breakout campaign was a high workload. A player who could fall under that category and break out in fantasy football in 2024 is Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White.
So, let's dive in and take a look at why White will break out this season.
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Zamir White's College/Rookie Season
White played all three of his college years at Georgia from 2019 to 2021. In those seasons, he totaled 382 carries for 2,043 yards (5.3 yards per carry) and 25 touchdowns. The former five-star prospect showed a ton of great things with the Bulldogs, but splitting touches with D'Andre Swift (2019) and Cook (2020 and 2021) over his college career surely hurt his draft stock.
Still, he rushed for at least 11 touchdowns in both of his final two college seasons while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Then, White was drafted in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft by the Las Vegas Raiders.
His landing spot with the Raiders wasn't necessarily the best since Josh Jacobs was the clear RB1 in that offense. As a result, White took a backseat in his first year in the league, rushing for only 70 yards on 17 attempts. He also saw just 40 snaps as a rookie.
Zamir White's 2023 Season
Unfortunately, White's situation in Year 2 didn't necessarily improve. Jacobs was back after signing the franchise tag, meaning the former Georgia product was going to take a backseat again on offense. With Jacobs as the team's bell-cow back, the 24-year-old had just 26 touches for 92 yards through the first 13 games of the 2023 season.
It was another rough start to the year for White, who didn't total more than four carries in any of his first 13 games. He also only saw more than 10 snaps once during those weeks (Week 14 in a blowout 30-12 loss to the Chicago Bears).
However, things shortly changed for White after Jacobs injured his calf leading up to a Thursday night game against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15. The All-Pro back was inactive for that contest, paving the way for the former five-star prospect to earn his first career NFL start.
White surely didn't disappoint, as he rushed 17 times for 69 yards and one touchdown. Jacobs continued to nurse his calf issue and wound up missing the final three games of the season as well. In those contests, the 24-year-old totaled at least 20 carries and 100 yards from scrimmage in each of those games.
Zamir White is the epitome of what #Raiders HC Antonio Pierce wants on the field
and Pierce is on record saying that his top two focuses are running the ball and stopping the run
we’re looking at 250+ (maybe 300+) touches, plus the overwhelming majority of goal line work for Z https://t.co/1c781UL8Sn pic.twitter.com/VcWvoJ0wlL
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 11, 2024
White might not have seen a ton of opportunities in 2023, but when he did, he showed his explosiveness and potential. In those four starts, the young back rushed 84 times for 397 yards and one touchdown. That averages out to 21 carries for 99.3 rush yards per game. He also reeled in nine passes for 60 yards while averaging 15.2 PPR fantasy points in those four contests.
Zamir White, Breakout Candidate?
Everything is lining up perfectly for White to break out in his third NFL season in 2024. Josh Jacobs left in free agency, and the Raiders didn't really add any notable running backs to this offense in the offseason. They signed Alexander Mattison and drafted Dylan Laube in the sixth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but neither really poses a major threat out of the backfield.
On top of that, head coach Antonio Pierce has always believed in running the ball at a high level. Just look at what White did during the final four weeks of the 2023 season. He saw at least 17 carries in each of those games while rushing for over 110 yards twice. Don't think his high volume will stop in 2024, either, following Pierce's offseason comments about the young running back.
Antonio Pierce loves the style of aggressive downhill running Zamir White brings to his offense
Currently sitting as the RB28, he’ll be a cheap workhorse option in dynasty fantasy football leagues 📈
As @Quintorris_ says #ValueHuntingpic.twitter.com/gzl5KfZcst
— Snoog’s Dynasty Society (@FFSnoog) March 22, 2024
That high volume out of the backfield should lead to a breakout fantasy season for White in 2024. Of the 14 backs who saw at least 225 carries last season, only Swift (229), Jacobs (233), Chuba Hubbard (238), and Najee Harris (255) didn't finish inside the top 15 at the position in PPR formats.
Those 225 carries also seem like White's absolute floor this year because there's a chance the 24-year-old sees 15-20 carries per game in a run-heavy Raiders offense. Assuming he stays healthy for all 17 games, a 280-touch season is definitely not out of the question for him in 2024. Six of the 10 running backs who crossed that 280-touch milestone last season finished inside the top eight at the position.
While it would be a shock to see White finish that high in fantasy in 2024, the workload should be there for him to finish top 14 at the position. After all, volume reigns supreme in fantasy football, and neither Mattison nor Laube is a real threat to him out of Las Vegas' backfield. That's why the third-year back is the best value pick in drafts this season.
The high workload will be there -- like we saw last year -- and White has the skills to be a consistent fantasy option in 2024. The Raiders had every opportunity to upgrade their running back room following the departure of Jacobs in March. But, with the team staying relatively pat at that position all offseason, that likely explains Las Vegas' confidence in the former Georgia star heading into the season.
As a result, we can expect a breakout fantasy year from White in 2024.
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