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Finding breakout players in drafts is what every fantasy football manager sets out to accomplish. After all, who wouldn't want to add an undervalued gem to their roster? Anyone who accurately forecasted that Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams would burst onto the scene last year reaped extensive benefits. Nailing such predictions boosts both one's fantasy team and their bragging rights.
Here we will take a look at Tennessee Titans second-year quarterback Will Levis and see why he is a breakout candidate for 2024. Levis dominated in his starting debut a season ago, and there are many reasons to believe he can put forth that sort of production more frequently in his sophomore campaign.
Levis is far from the only breakout candidate, though. Make sure to check out other similar articles, like this one about Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White. Without further ado, let's cut to the chase and look at Levis' profile for the upcoming season.
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Will Levis Background
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill put forth some quality seasons for the Titans after joining the team in 2019, but in 2021, his performance began to dip. Taking QB Malik Willis in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft sadly did not provide the team with a viable starting alternative. After another middling campaign from Tannehill, Tennessee opted to take quarterback Will Levis with the 33rd overall pick of the 2023 draft.
With the No. 33 overall pick in the 2023 @NFLDraft, the @Titans select Will Levis!
📺: 2023 #NFLDraft on NFLN/ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/D3EqkrKdIw pic.twitter.com/xFB1EuttL2— NFL (@NFL) April 28, 2023
Levis' stock was all over the place during the predraft process. At one point, his arm talent, strong frame, and overall athleticism had him in contention to be among the first players taken. However, his questionable decision-making and inconsistent timing damaged his outlook to the point where he slid fully out of the first round. Levis began the 2023 season on the bench behind the veteran Tannehill.
In Week 8, Levis was given his first opportunity to start in the NFL. He took the league by storm, completing 19-of-29 passes for 238 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions in a 28-23 win over Atlanta. Importantly, he demonstrated his rapport with wideout DeAndre Hopkins; Hopkins hauled in four of his six targets for 128 yards and three scores. The debut had fans and media buzzing.
Levis and Hopkins running it back for 6
📺: #ATLvsTEN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Quwvdzpx7G pic.twitter.com/WrxQAnIAye— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2023
Levis was unable to establish any consistency over the remainder of the season, though. He wound up with one 300-yard performance, which came in a thrilling Week 14 comeback win over Miami. He crested 200 passing yards in just four of his eight full outings, and he only tossed four more touchdown passes after his debut. Levis finished the year with 1,808 passing yards, eight passing touchdowns, and four interceptions in nine starts.
Advanced Metrics
Overall, Levis' advanced metrics were not great. He had the 29th-best Pro Football Focus (PFF) Passing Grade out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks. Out of the 45 players with at least 135 pass attempts, Levis had the sixth-highest bad pass percentage (21.2 percent per RotoWire) and the fourth-worst completion percentage above expectation (-3.2 percent per Next Gen Stats). He certainly experienced some growing pains as a rookie.
Levis was not particularly efficient as a fantasy asset, either. He averaged just 0.37 fantasy points per dropback, according to PlayerProfiler. He was the QB28 in that metric, which was right in line with his QB26 finish with 11.8 fantasy points per game. Levis did not provide much fantasy value last year before his season effectively ended in Week 15; he threw just six passes over the final three weeks due to injuries.
Certain elements of Levis' profile are cause for optimism, though. A key one is that his deep ball is excellent. Levis had the second-best deep ball catchable pass rate in the league last year at 57.9 percent, per PlayerProfiler. The Titans allowed him to lean into this, too; according to PlayerProfiler, Levis led all qualifying QBs with 10.4 air yards per pass attempt. Moreover, Next Gen Stats shows that of the 45 QBs with 135+ attempts, Levis had the sixth-highest average completed air yards figure at 6.7.
The trickery leads to a DeAndre Hopkins TD!
📺: #TENvsJAX on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/jckqnJwdb2 pic.twitter.com/JtfOHJOhYG— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2023
Levis demonstrated the ability to make great throws all over the field. According to PFF, his 5.9-percent Big Time Throw rate ranked seventh among the 39 quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks. It is easy to envision Levis at his lofty ceiling; he already flashed high-end ability at times as a rookie. He will need to shore up his accuracy and become much more consistent to reach that ceiling, though.
New-Look Offense
So, Levis showed last year some signs of a potential breakout on the horizon. Does he have the supporting cast necessary to pull it off, though? While the quarterback's importance in an offense has been made apparent, he will still need adequate weapons, blocking, and coaching to truly blossom. Fortunately, the Titans made several moves this offseason to suggest they are doing their best to make this happen.
One shakeup in Tennessee is that the team has a new starting running back. Derrick Henry is now in Baltimore, and former Cowboy Tony Pollard has joined the Titans. Although Henry had been an elite RB in Nashville, he was not used much as a receiver. Last year, Henry's route participation rate was just 16.8 percent compared to Pollard's 59.0 percent, per PlayerProfiler. Pollard and second-year back Tyjae Spears will both be quality options for Levis out of the backfield.
Tyjae Spears goes 28 yards for the @Titans TD!
📺: #JAXvsTEN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/mJoCKcR788— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
The Titans also added to their receiving room this offseason. Calvin Ridley comes over from Jacksonville after posting 76 receptions for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns a season ago. The franchise has also welcomed former Cincinnati wideout Tyler Boyd to the fold. Plus, Tennessee returns its top WR (DeAndre Hopkins) and TE (Chigoziem Okonkwo) from last year, although Hopkins did just suffer a knee injury that might affect his availability for Week 1.
Tennessee's offensive line will also look very different. Three of last year's primary starters up front are on new teams for 2024. The Titans signed center Lloyd Cushenberry III and guard Saahdiq Charles in free agency; per PFF, Cushenberry had the third-best Pass Blocking Grade among centers last year. The team also spent its first-round pick in this year's draft on offensive tackle JC Latham.
The @Titans got themselves an anchor in OT JC Latham ⚓️@MoveTheSticks | @TKJaayy pic.twitter.com/zUpKUvs03F
— NFL (@NFL) May 1, 2024
The Titans also have a new head coach. At the helm is former Cincinnati offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. Callahan helped orchestrate some excellent passing attacks with the Bengals and oversaw QB Joe Burrow's development into a star. Per PlayerProfiler, the Bengals were top-8 in team pass plays per game in both 2022 and 2023; by contrast, the Titans were 30th last year. New Tennessee OC Nick Holz was the passing game coordinator in Jacksonville last season; there, he worked with QB Trevor Lawrence and new Titans receiver Calvin Ridley.
Finally and importantly, Levis is the clear starting quarterback entering 2024. With a full offseason of first-team reps and nine starts under his belt, Levis will be better prepared for the upcoming year than his rookie campaign. With this and all of the previous components in place, the pieces are there for Levis to find success. This makes him a fantasy football breakout candidate in 2024.
2024 Final Fantasy Football Expectations
The list of Year 2 breakout QBs has grown in recent years. Brock Purdy entered the MVP conversation in 2023 in his first full year as a starter. Joe Burrow emerged as a force in 2021 as a sophomore. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes each won MVPs in their second seasons. Could Levis match these leaps? It's very unlikely he does that well; expectations should be tempered relative to these cases. The Titans are certainly working to make a jump in production happen, though.
Levis has an FFPC ADP of QB23, a Sleeper ADP of QB24, and a CBS ADP of QB27. Fantasy managers have been severely underrating Levis in their drafts. On all three platforms, Levis has a lower ADP than Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield. Watson has not done anything for fantasy managers since 2020, and since being drafted in 2018, Mayfield has never been a top-16 QB in fantasy points per game. The upside for Levis is worth betting on.
Ultimately, the boom case for Levis is probable enough to place him within the QB2 range for fantasy drafts. While he does not have a star receiver to throw to (an aging Hopkins no longer counts), he has more weapons to work with this year than last year. The new coaching staff will also place him in a great position to produce. Levis has a great chance to finish inside the top 20 fantasy QBs this season as a result.
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