RADIO
As we get closer to the start of the 2024 NFL season, it’s important to take the time to evaluate potential breakout candidates for fantasy football leagues. There are several places we can look to find the next breakout star, but today, we will examine New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave.
He is a very popular breakout candidate this year, and it’s easy to see why. Olave has flashed amazing talent and potential throughout his brief career. But can we really expect him to make a leap toward fantasy superstardom and become a league-winning player?
Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s examine the Saints’ WR1, and why you should select him in your 2024 fantasy football draft.
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Chris Olave Background
After a successful collegiate career at Ohio State University, the Saints selected Olave with the 11th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. With Michael Thomas coming off two injury-shortened seasons, it was clear New Orleans needed a new WR1. It found its man in Olave.
Chris Olave Touchdown 🔥 pic.twitter.com/rZbu0QWAEp
— Barstool Ohio State (@BarstoolOSU) January 8, 2023
Olave broke the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie in 2022, posting a 72-1,042-4 line and finished as the PPR WR25. He made strides as a sophomore last year and set career highs across the board. It resulted in a PPR WR16 finish. The third-year wide receiver is primed for an even bigger campaign in 2024 with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak taking over play-calling duties.
Kubiak was in charge of the Minnesota Vikings offense during the 2021 season. He had the privilege of working with Justin Jefferson that year. In Kubiak’s offense, Jefferson posted a 108-1,616-10 line on 167 targets and finished as the WR4. Kubiak knew what he had in Jefferson and used him accordingly. We should expect similar usage for Olave in this system.
Is Olave as talented as Jefferson? No, Jefferson is the better player. But Olave isn’t far behind. If Kubiak’s previous history as a play-caller holds firm, then Olave is in line for a massive role this season.
Analytical Profile
Let's take a minute to examine Olave’s analytical profile thus far in his career thanks to the good folks over at Fantasy Points Data Suite. Here is Olave’s data and ranks in several advanced metrics during his first two seasons.
2022 (Out of 101 Receivers with 300+ routes run):
| Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) | 27% | 11th |
| Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) | 2.48 | 10th |
| Target Share | 24.30% | 17th |
| Air Yards | 11,664 | 9th |
2023 (Out of 104 receivers with 300+ routes run):
| TPRR | 27% | 15th |
| YPRR | 2.18 | 23rd |
| Target Share | 23.70% | 15th |
| Air Yards | 1,838 | 6th |
Overall, these are exactly the results you want to see. Olave checks in with solid marks in TPRR and target share. He has crossed the pivotal 2.0 YPRR mark in each of his two seasons as a professional, and his air yards have consistently been among the league leaders. All of this shows that while Olave has not yet produced a massive statistical season, he’s more than capable of doing so. 2024 could very well be the year it all comes together.
Questionable Quarterback Situation
Some circles are skeptical of an Olave breakout because Derek Carr is his quarterback. While Carr is not among the elite quarterbacks in the league, is this really a legitimate concern? Let’s take a look at Carr’s history of supporting fantasy-relevant wide receivers. Here are Carr’s WR1s throughout his career and their PPR finishes:
| Year | Player | PPR Finish |
| 2014 | James Jones | WR39 |
| 2015 | Michael Crabtree | WR16 |
| 2016 | Michael Crabtree | WR12 |
| 2017 | Michael Crabtree | WR30 |
| 2018 | Jordy Nelson | WR37 |
| 2019 | Hunter Renfrow | WR55 |
| 2020 | Nelson Agholor | WR34 |
| 2021 | Hunter Renfrow | WR10 |
| 2022 | Davante Adams | WR3 |
| 2023 | Chris Olave | WR16 |
We also had two instances where Carr supported two top-24 receivers:
| Year | WR1 | PPR Finish | WR2 | PPR Finish |
| 2015 | Michael Crabtree | WR16 | Amari Cooper | WR21 |
| 2016 | Michael Crabtree | WR12 | Amari Cooper | WR13 |
Also a note on the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Carr’s top wide receiver was basically irrelevant for fantasy football, but he did have tight end Darren Waller. Here are Waller’s PPR finishes from those seasons:
2019: TE3
2020: TE2
So, we obviously have some duds in this sample and Carr has only supported a fantasy WR1 three times. However, if we’re looking at this list and being objective, Carr hasn’t had a lot to work with. Yes, he had Crabtree and Cooper for a few years, but neither one is really considered elite. Despite that, he still helped Crabtree finish as a WR1 and helped both players finish as top-24 options twice. The only time Carr played with a truly elite receiver was when he was paired with Davante Adams in 2022. The results there speak for themselves.
So yes, Carr has, at times, had trouble consistently supporting difference-making fantasy receivers. But frankly, any quarterback would if they were working with Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor, James Jones, and a washed-up Jordy Nelson. Anytime Carr has been given a talented receiver, they have produced.
Now, there is an argument to be made that Olave is currently priced near his ceiling with Carr. Olave currently has an FFPC ADP of WR12. Can we really expect Carr to help him finish better than the WR11 when we have only seen Carr do so twice in his career?
Yes, we can. With all due respect to Hunter Renfrow, if he can finish as the WR10 with Carr at quarterback, then we have to think Olave can at least match that mark. Maybe a WR3 finish like Adams had is not in the cards, but Olave can still come close. Bottom line -- we shouldn’t avoid Olave due to Carr’s presence.
Final 2024 Fantasy Football Expectations
Olave is a stud. If you’ve watched any Saints games in the last two years, then you know how good he is.
Wait – we've seen this movie before. Chris Olave 53-yard 💣 for a touchdown in the Superdome. pic.twitter.com/0jvng5UIc2
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) November 20, 2022
His analytical profile is strong, and he’s lined up as a WR1 with an offensive coordinator who has previously hyper-targeted his top weapon. Kubiak may not be the perfect play-caller, but he’s not stupid. He knows what he’s got in Olave and will make him the focal point of the passing game. As long as Olave is healthy, then he’s in line for a career year.
With an FFPC ADP of 24th overall, Olave is a fantastic pick as a WR1 and even better if you can land him as your WR2. He’s a great bet to make the traditional Year 3 wide receiver leap, and fantasy gamers should expect a career year. Olave has the talent and analytics behind him. Now, he just needs the opportunity. He will get that in this offense. Draft him and reap the rewards.
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