2024 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Aidan O'Connell

Can Aidan O'Connell break out and establish himself as the Raiders' starter in 2024? Aidin Ebrahimi looks at the reasons why you should be optimistic about O'Connell in 2024.

In the 2023 offseason, the Raiders made a big splash by replacing Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo. They expected Garoppolo's experience and winning DNA during his stints with the Patriots and 49ers to help them make the playoffs. However, Garoppolo was subpar and was replaced by fourth-round rookie QB Aidan O'Connell.

After two wins in his first two starts, O'Connell had three consecutive poor performances, essentially ending the Raiders' season. However, he went 3-1 in his last four games, throwing for eight touchdowns with no interceptions and a great 98.4 passer rating. Now, there is more hope surrounding O'Connell, despite the addition of Gardner Minshew II.

Can we expect O'Connell to establish himself as a starter this season? Let's find out.

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Aidan O'Connell 2023 Season Review

After Jimmy Garoppolo went down with an injury before the Raiders' Week 4 matchup against the Chargers, many expected the then-37-year-old veteran Brian Hoyer to start. However, the Raiders went with O'Connell, who impressed during the preseason. O'Connell had a good start to the game, marching down the field and scoring a one-yard touchdown.

But this dream start would quickly turn into a nightmare, as he was sacked seven times (six times by former Raider Khalil Mack) and lost two fumbles. He then threw an interception to end the game. Due to this terrible performance, the Raiders went with Hoyer in Week 7 when Garoppolo got hurt again, but a putrid performance from Hoyer gave O'Connell another chance.

Aidan O'Connell hits Tre Tucker for 50 yards. The separation within the first 5 steps is nasty. #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/lw19aLODb4

— Sanjit T. (@Sanjit__T) November 6, 2023

O'Connell was named the starting QB after Garoppolo was permanently benched before Week 9. O'Connell wasn't asked to do much by new head coach Antonio Pierce, and he went on to win his first two games against both New York teams. After that, he threw three interceptions in Week 11, lost to the Chiefs in Week 12, and failed to score a single point in an embarrassing 0-3 loss to the Vikings in Week 13.

His starting job was put in serious jeopardy and Garoppolo was rumored to return for Week 14 against the Chargers. But O'Connell persevered and had a four-touchdown performance in a 63-21 thrashing. He then beat the Chiefs in a massive Christmas upset and finished the year by throwing for 543 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions with a 101.6 passer rating in his last two games.

A New Look Roster

Right now, O'Connell and Antonio Pierce are amid their first offseason together, and the team has already made some big moves. In terms of the coaching staff, they hired Luke Getsy, who has had years of experience with Aaron Rodgers, as the offensive coordinator.

Other notable additions include new assistant head coach Marvin Lewis (who coached Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton for many years at Cincinnati), new offensive assistant Joe Philbin (who coached Brett Favre, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Rodgers, and Andrew Luck), new QBs coach Rich Scangarello (who worked with Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo), and the returning passing game coordinator Scott Turner (who worked with Cam Newton and Alex Smith).

You have to hear what Davante Adams said today about Aidan O’Connell & Gardner Minshew pic.twitter.com/RBDvrKz7Zf

— Raiders Report Mitchell Renz (@MitchellRenz365) July 17, 2024

These new coaches and their experience with star QBs will tremendously help O'Connell. Onto the playing staff now, and the Raiders made smart moves instead of going big. They drafted TE Brock Bowers 13th overall, and he's expected to be one of the best TEs in the business right away. They also drafted one of my favorite draft prospects, Jackson Powers-Johnson, and Delmar Glaze to help out with the offensive line.

Now, the negatives. They lost 2022 leading rusher Josh Jacobs and the lack of WR additions has been concerning. Thankfully for O'Connell, Davante Adams is still around despite Aaron Rodgers' recent tampering and Jacobs' negative comments about the Raiders.

QB1 Battle With Gardner Minshew II

The other big addition to the team has been 2023 Pro Bowl quarterback Gardner Minshew, who will compete with O'Connell for the starting gig. Minshew is an exciting quarterback to watch, but he has a ceiling. No one knows what O'Connell's ceiling is, so that might help him be viewed more favorably than Minshew.

Though we're still a few weeks away from Raiders training camp, it certainly bodes well for Aidan O'Connell if he's currying favor with Davante Adams. pic.twitter.com/OJooHdSvqt

— RaiderRamble.com™ (@TheRaiderRamble) June 23, 2024

Minshew went 7-6 with a talented Colts roster featuring one of the best offensive lines in the league and two RBs who produced at a high level. Neither QB has pulled ahead so far, but Antonio Pierce has hinted at O'Connell being the front-runner. Several others, such as Raiders legend Tim Brown and Davante Adams have predicted O'Connell to retain his status as the team's starting quarterback. The team is willing to do anything to keep Adams happy, so getting an endorsement from him means a lot.

Aidan O'Connell 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

O'Connell has little to no rushing upside, so if he wants to be a viable fantasy option he has to be a high-level passing QB. He showed flashes of potential late in the season, averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game in Weeks 15, 17, and 18. He has tons of potential to improve too, as he's the type of person who will put his head down and get to work even if he isn't selected as the QB1.

"Starter, backup, I try to prepare myself like I’m going to play," said O'Connell while he was at Purdue. "Who knows? I’m going to try to be a leader as best I can." His private coach Jeff Christensen described him as a "hard worker who has a good soul" and said he was as good of a passer as his client Jimmy Garoppolo in 2019, years before O'Connell eventually replaced him.

Despite the mess at quarterback year under Josh McDaniels, the Raiders still walked away with a potential long-term starter in Aidan O’Connell. Brian Hoyer, who mentored and played alongside AOC, shed much praise for the second-year QB in a recent SiriusXM NFL appearance. pic.twitter.com/cFGI8Z14u5

— RaiderRamble.com™ (@TheRaiderRamble) July 3, 2024

O'Connell has been overlooked for most of his career. He received no Division I offers, joined Purdue as a walk-on, and only started six games in his first four years in college before taking over as the starter and winning seven games in each of his final two seasons. He was initially the Raiders' QB3 and was sacked by the same player six times in his first-ever start, but shook it off and finished the year as the starter and beat the eventual champions on Christmas.

His personality meshes well with Antonio Pierce and with all the experienced coaches around him, he can break out and solidify himself as a starter in 2024. He can outperform his ADP (QB36) and become a very reliable Superflex QB and someone who can become a valuable dynasty asset.

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