RADIO
Joey Pollizze takes a deep dive into three blind wide receiver resumes to compare their 2023 stats and see if the difference in their projected 2024 fantasy football ADP can be explained.
At this point in the NFL offseason, many fantasy football goers are not necessarily thinking about the fantasy season. However, it's never too early to start looking at stats and identify which players you want to target in drafts this summer/fall. Sometimes just getting an idea of where players are going could be really helpful when drafts roll around over the next couple of months.
So, if you are one of those fantasy managers who like to get an early start on research, you have come to the right place. In this piece, I will blindly compare two wide receivers and their 2023 resumes side by side. The goal of this article is to justify if players are being drafted in the spot early in the offseason.
While some of these ADPs on Underdog Fantasy will change throughout the offseason, especially with the NFL Draft, it's still a great way to see where players are currently going in drafts. So, let's dive in and look at three sets of blind resumes from wide receivers and their 2023 stats.
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Blind Resume No. 1
| Player | UD-ADP | WR-Rank | TPG | TS | RPG | YPG | YPR | AYPG | REC | 2023 RYD | TD | YPT | PPR-PPG | 2023 Finish |
| A | 17 | 10 | 10.3 | 33.1% | 6.1 | 67.3 | 11.1 | 111.5 | 103 | 1,144 | 8 | 6.5 | 15.6 | WR10 |
| B | 33 | 22 | 7.9 | 24.5% | 4.6 | 73.8 | 15.9 | 112.1 | 79 | 1,255 | 13 | 9.2 | 16.6 | WR7 |
UD-ADP = Underdog ADP WR-Rank = Current WR ranking on Underdog TPG = Targets Per Game TS = Target Share
RPG = Receptions Per Game YPG = Yards Per Game YPR = Yards Per Reception AYPG = Air Yards Per Game
REC = Receptions 2023 RYD= 2023 Receiving Yards TD = Touchdowns YPT= Yards Per Target
PPR-PPG = Full-PPR PPG 2023 Finish = Fantasy Finish in 2023 Among Wide Receivers
Our first blind resume will look at two players who have plenty of NFL experience. Both wide receivers have played 10 years in the league and were both drafted in the 2014 NFL Draft. Both players have also been a consistent fantasy option over their careers and that surely won't change in 2024. Just from the look of it, player A and player B appear to be top wideouts in the league and high-level fantasy players.
However, player B might be the better value pick in the third round. This wide receiver is coming off the second-best fantasy finish of his career (WR7 in PPR formats and WR5 in half-PPR formats), and he has been one of the game's most consistent playmakers. He has also built a nice rapport with his quarterback, which should help him build off his 16.6 PPR fantasy points per game average.
As for player A, the talent is there, but the situation is hard to trust. He is coming off his worst fantasy finish (WR10 in PPR formats and WR11 in half-PPR formats) since 2019, and his quarterback play remains a huge question mark heading into the year. This wide receiver will either catch passes from a rookie or a quarterback who has more experience as a backup than a starter in 2024.
Blind Resume No. 1 Reveal
Were you able to identify which player was which based on the clues? If not, player A was Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams and player B was Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans.
It's hard to simply pass on Adams for Evans at this point in the draft, especially with the Raiders wideout earning a 33.1% target share in 2023. Having Gardner Minshew throwing him passes this upcoming year should also help his fantasy value a bit. However, the Buccaneers wide receiver is certainly in a better spot heading into 2024 with Baker Mayfield under center.
Mike Evans fantasy point totals the last 6 weeks:
20.2, 12.9, 12.7, 26.3, 15.3, 25.0 pic.twitter.com/OORiOlHPI5
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 26, 2023
Evans is also more of a safe pick at his ADP of 33 compared to Adams' ADP of 17. The former has totaled at least 1,000 yards in 10 straight seasons to begin his NFL career while also catching at least double-digit touchdowns in three of the past four seasons. The 30-year-old shouldn't be going where Adams is going in drafts, but he is the better pick at the end of Round 3.
Blind Resume No. 2
| Player | UD-ADP | WR-Rank | TPG | TS | RPG | YPG | YPR | AYPG | REC | 2023 RYD | TD | YPT | PPR-PPG | 2023 Finish |
| A | 31 | 19 | 7.4 | 23.4% | 5.1 | 72.4 | 14.1 | 75.1 | 72 | 1,014 | 4 | 9.8 | 14.2 | WR34 |
| B | 44 | 27 | 8.5 | 23.6% | 4.8 | 83.3 | 17.4 | 121.3 | 72 | 1,250 | 5 | 9.8 | 15.1 | WR20 |
We got another blind resume here between two wide receivers. This one, though, doesn't make a ton of sense as player B was better in almost every statistical category in 2023 except receptions per game. Yet, he is going 13 picks later in Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts.
The big thing going for player A heading into the season is the fact that he plays on a top offense in the NFL. That should no doubt help his fantasy value throughout the year. However, he is clearly the WR2 on his team with a quarterback who struggles at times.
Player B also has a slight quarterback downgrade and the team that he plays for just traded for another wide receiver this offseason. That could explain why his ADP sits at 44. Nonetheless, that shouldn't matter too much, as this wideout is the clear WR1 in a solid offense. Last year, this wideout had to deal with multiple backup quarterbacks under center, and he still finished as the WR20 in PPR formats with 1,250 receiving yards.
Blind Resume No. 2 Reveal
The players in this blind resume might have been harder to guess. But player A was Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and player B was Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper.
Waddle is obviously in the better offense, and he can go for 30-plus fantasy points on any given week. The Dolphins averaged the third-most points per game last year at 27.9. Despite that, though, there were plenty of games throughout the year that the 25-year-old disappointed in fantasy. He finished with less than 15 PPR fantasy points in 10 of the 14 games he appeared in last season. He also plays second fiddle to Tyreek Hill in the passing game, making him a much risky option at pick 31.
🎥 Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have been training together over the past couple of days 🔥 (@GoldFeet_Jr) #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/hb7eCpNc6q
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) March 29, 2024
As a result, Cooper might be the better selection one round later. Even though the Browns traded for Jerry Jeudy this offseason -- which should hurt the veteran's fantasy football value a tiny bit -- he's still the clear WR1 in Cleveland. Last year, Joe Flacco, Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, P.J. Walker, and Jeff Driskel all threw him passes, and he still put up 1,250 receiving yards. He's a more consistent option at pick 44 than Waddle is at pick 31.
Blind Resume No. 3
| Player | UD-ADP | WR-Rank | TPG | TS | RPG | YPG | YPR | AYPG | REC | 2023 RYD | TD | YPT | PPR-PPG | 2023 Finish |
| A | 37 | 23 | 7.5 | 22.9% | 4.1 | 69.6 | 16.9 | 95.1 | 66 | 1,114 | 8 | 9.4 | 14.1 | WR21 |
| B | 68 | 37 | 7.1 | 20.8% | 4.8 | 65.6 | 13.8 | 70.2 | 57 | 787 | 3 | 9.3 | 12.5 | WR47 |
This blind resume between these two players is a little more out there. Player A was obviously the better fantasy option in 2023 and had the better numbers across the board. Nonetheless, don't sleep on player B and his potential in a solid offense this upcoming year.
Player B didn't have the best season last year and dealt with an injury that caused him to miss the final five weeks of the season. That ultimately hurt his fantasy finish (WR47 in PPR formats). But the team this wide receiver plays on just lost its top pass-catcher in free agency, so look for him to have a bigger role in 2024.
As for player A, he is surely an alpha in the league. He has totaled at least 900 receiving yards in all five of his NFL seasons with four straight top-22 fantasy finishes. The problem for him, though, remains a lack of target share since there are two other solid receivers on that offense.
Blind Resume No. 3 Reveal
Could you guess which player was which based on the stats? If you couldn't, player A was Seattle Seahawks wide receiver D.K. Metcalf and player B was Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk.
Of course, Metcalf is the well-known wide receiver of the two. But don't be surprised if Kirk finishes above him in fantasy in 2024. For starters, that already happened during the 2022 season when the Jaguars wideout finished as the WR11 in PPR formats and the Seahawks wideout finished as the WR16 in PPR formats.
During that season, Kirk operated as the team's WR1 on offense and totaled 84 catches for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns without Calvin Ridley. Now, Ridley is gone after seeing 136 targets in Jacksonville's offense in 2023. So, look for a majority of those targets to land into Kirk's lap, as the team didn't necessarily replace Ridley this offseason.
A word on Christian Kirk:
People just don’t realize how good this dude is.
When I evaluate Wide Receivers, I am always looking for route tree versatility.
Christian Kirk can do it ALL.
He’s good on crossing patterns, slants, in the flats, down field, in motion etc.
He’s… pic.twitter.com/goOn3WBgKl
— John Frascella (Football) (@LegendSports7) April 16, 2024
Kirk is currently going 31 picks after Metcalf in Underdog drafts, which is a bit surprising. The Seahawks wideout is not exactly in the best position either with Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba likely garnering a ton of targets this upcoming season. The 26-year-old will still surely get his fair share of opportunities on offense, but his ceiling might be limited in that Seattle offense.
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